Journal cover Journal topic
Geoscientific Model Development An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 35-56, 2017
http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/10/35/2017/
doi:10.5194/gmd-10-35-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Model evaluation paper
03 Jan 2017
On the forecast skill of a convection-permitting ensemble
Theresa Schellander-Gorgas et al.

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Short summary
Ensemble forecasting offers a useful method to simulate the uncertainty of a numerical forecast model for each individual forecast run. This study compares ALADIN-LAEF, a 16-member ensemble with a resolution of 11 km that combines several perturbation methods, with AROME-EPS, which downscales the members of ALADIN-LAEF to 2.5 km resolution. The verification shows that there are benefits of a higher-resolution ensemble, especially for highly localized precipitation and for mountainous terrain.
Ensemble forecasting offers a useful method to simulate the uncertainty of a numerical forecast...
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