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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">GMD</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Geoscientific Model Development</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">GMD</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1991-9603</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus GmbH</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/gmd-5-1565-2012</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>How realistic are air quality hindcasts driven by forcings from climate model simulations?</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Lacressonnière</surname>
<given-names>G.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Peuch</surname>
<given-names>V.-H.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Arteta</surname>
<given-names>J.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Josse</surname>
<given-names>B.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Joly</surname>
<given-names>M.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Marécal</surname>
<given-names>V.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Saint Martin</surname>
<given-names>D.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Déqué</surname>
<given-names>M.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Watson</surname>
<given-names>L.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>GAME/CNRM, Météo-France, URA1357, CNRS – Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques,    42 av. G.Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>ECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>12</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2012</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>5</volume>
<issue>6</issue>
<fpage>1565</fpage>
<lpage>1587</lpage>
<permissions>
<license xlink:type="simple">
<license-p>This is an open-access article ditributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.</license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/5/1565/2012/gmd-5-1565-2012.html">This article is available from http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/5/1565/2012/gmd-5-1565-2012.html</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/5/1565/2012/gmd-5-1565-2012.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/5/1565/2012/gmd-5-1565-2012.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Predicting  how European air quality could evolve over the next decades in the
  context of changing climate requires the use of climate models to produce
  results that can be averaged in a climatologically and statistically sound
  manner.  This is a very different approach from the one that is generally used
  for air quality hindcasts for the present period; analysed meteorological
  fields are used to represent specifically each date and hour. Differences
  arise both from the fact that a climate model run results in a pure model output, with
  no influence from observations (which are useful to correct for a range of
  errors), and that in a &quot;climate&quot; set-up, simulations on a given day, month
  or even season cannot be related to any specific period of time (but can just
  be interpreted in a climatological sense).  Hence, although an air quality
  model can be thoroughly validated in a &quot;realistic&quot; set-up using analysed
  meteorological fields, the question remains of how far its outputs can be
  interpreted in a &quot;climate&quot; set-up.  For this purpose, we focus on Europe and
  on the current decade using three 5-yr simulations performed with the
  multiscale chemistry-transport model MOCAGE and use meteorological forcings
  either from operational meteorological analyses or from climate
  simulations. We investigate how statistical skill indicators compare in the
  different simulations, discriminating also the effects of meteorology on
  atmospheric fields (winds, temperature, humidity, pressure, etc.) and on the
  dependent emissions and deposition processes (volatile organic compound
  emissions, deposition velocities, etc.).  Our results show in particular how
  differing boundary layer heights and deposition velocities affect horizontal
  and vertical distributions of species.  When the model is driven by
  operational analyses, the simulation accurately reproduces the observed values
  of O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt;, NO&lt;sub&gt;x&lt;/sub&gt;, SO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; and, with some bias that can be
  explained by the set-up, PM&lt;sub&gt;10&lt;/sub&gt;.  We study how the simulations driven
  by climate forcings differ, both due to the realism of the forcings (lack of
  data assimilated and lower resolution) and due to the lack of representation
  of the actual chronology of events.  We conclude that the indicators such as
  mean bias, mean normalized bias, RMSE and deviation standards can be used to
  interpret the results with some confidence as well as the health-related
  indicators such as the number of days of exceedance of regulatory
  thresholds.  These metrics are thus considered to be suitable for the
  interpretation of simulations of the future evolution of European air quality.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="23"/></counts>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body/>
<back>
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