Journal Metrics

  • IF value: 6.086 IF 6.086
  • IF 5-year<br/> value: 6.174 IF 5-year
    6.174
  • SNIP value: 1.812 SNIP 1.812
  • IPP value: 5.140 IPP 5.140
  • SJR value: 3.969 SJR 3.969
  • h5-index value: 29 h5-index 29
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1689-1703, 2013
www.geosci-model-dev.net/6/1689/2013/
doi:10.5194/gmd-6-1689-2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
A new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming
J. Heinke1,2, S. Ostberg1, S. Schaphoff1, K. Frieler1, C. Müller1, D. Gerten1, M. Meinshausen1,3, and W. Lucht1,4
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegraphenberg A62, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
2International Livestock Research Institute, P.O. Box 30709, Nairobi, Kenya
3School of Earth Sciences, McCoy Building, University of Melbourne, Victoria 3010, Australia
4Department of Geography, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany

Abstract. In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob) has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines, systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalised patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilise a simplified relationships between ΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper) facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

Citation: Heinke, J., Ostberg, S., Schaphoff, S., Frieler, K., Müller, C., Gerten, D., Meinshausen, M., and Lucht, W.: A new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1689-1703, doi:10.5194/gmd-6-1689-2013, 2013.
 
Search GMD
Final Revised Paper
PDF XML
Citation
Discussion Paper
Share