Articles | Volume 7, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-41-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-41-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Model description paper
| 
10 Jan 2014
Model description paper |
| 10 Jan 2014
Evaluation of the new UKCA climate-composition model – Part 2: The Troposphere
F. M. O'Connor
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
C. E. Johnson
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
O. Morgenstern
NCAS-Climate-Chemistry, Cambridge University, UK
now at: NIWA, Lauder, New Zealand
N. L. Abraham
NCAS-Climate-Chemistry, Cambridge University, UK
P. Braesicke
NCAS-Climate-Chemistry, Cambridge University, UK
M. Dalvi
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
G. A. Folberth
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
M. G. Sanderson
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
P. J. Telford
NCAS-Climate-Chemistry, Cambridge University, UK
A. Voulgarakis
Department of Physics, Imperial College, UK
P. J. Young
NCAS-Climate-Chemistry, Cambridge University, UK
now at: Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, UK
G. Zeng
NCAS-Climate-Chemistry, Cambridge University, UK
now at: NIWA, Lauder, New Zealand
W. J. Collins
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
now at: Department of Meteorology, Reading University, Reading, UK
J. A. Pyle
NCAS-Climate-Chemistry, Cambridge University, UK
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Gillian Thornhill, William Collins, Dirk Olivié, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Alex Archibald, Susanne Bauer, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Stephanie Fiedler, Gerd Folberth, Ada Gjermundsen, Larry Horowitz, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Martine Michou, Jane Mulcahy, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Fabien Paulot, Michael Schulz, Catherine E. Scott, Roland Séférian, Chris Smith, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, and James Weber
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1105–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1105-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1105-2021, 2021
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We find that increased temperatures affect aerosols and reactive gases by changing natural emissions and their rates of removal from the atmosphere. Changing the composition of these species in the atmosphere affects the radiative budget of the climate system and therefore amplifies or dampens the climate response of climate models of the Earth system. This study found that the largest effect is a dampening of climate change as warmer temperatures increase the emissions of cooling aerosols.
Gillian D. Thornhill, William J. Collins, Ryan J. Kramer, Dirk Olivié, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Fiona M. O'Connor, Nathan Luke Abraham, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Susanne E. Bauer, Makoto Deushi, Louisa K. Emmons, Piers M. Forster, Larry W. Horowitz, Ben Johnson, James Keeble, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Martine Michou, Michael J. Mills, Jane P. Mulcahy, Gunnar Myhre, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, Naga Oshima, Michael Schulz, Christopher J. Smith, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Tongwen Wu, Guang Zeng, and Jie Zhang
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Jane P. Mulcahy, Colin Johnson, Colin G. Jones, Adam C. Povey, Catherine E. Scott, Alistair Sellar, Steven T. Turnock, Matthew T. Woodhouse, Nathan Luke Abraham, Martin B. Andrews, Nicolas Bellouin, Jo Browse, Ken S. Carslaw, Mohit Dalvi, Gerd A. Folberth, Matthew Glover, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Catherine Hardacre, Richard Hill, Ben Johnson, Andy Jones, Zak Kipling, Graham Mann, James Mollard, Fiona M. O'Connor, Julien Palmiéri, Carly Reddington, Steven T. Rumbold, Mark Richardson, Nick A. J. Schutgens, Philip Stier, Marc Stringer, Yongming Tang, Jeremy Walton, Stephanie Woodward, and Andrew Yool
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6383–6423, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6383-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6383-2020, 2020
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Steven T. Turnock, Robert J. Allen, Martin Andrews, Susanne E. Bauer, Makoto Deushi, Louisa Emmons, Peter Good, Larry Horowitz, Jasmin G. John, Martine Michou, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, David Neubauer, Fiona M. O'Connor, Dirk Olivié, Naga Oshima, Michael Schulz, Alistair Sellar, Sungbo Shim, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, Tongwen Wu, and Jie Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14547–14579, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14547-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14547-2020, 2020
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A first assessment is made of the historical and future changes in air pollutants from models participating in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Substantial benefits to future air quality can be achieved in future scenarios that implement measures to mitigate climate and involve reductions in air pollutant emissions, particularly methane. However, important differences are shown between models in the future regional projection of air pollutants under the same scenario.
David S. Stevenson, Alcide Zhao, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Simone Tilmes, Guang Zeng, Lee T. Murray, William J. Collins, Paul T. Griffiths, Sungbo Shim, Larry W. Horowitz, Lori T. Sentman, and Louisa Emmons
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12905–12920, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12905-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12905-2020, 2020
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We present historical trends in atmospheric oxidizing capacity (OC) since 1850 from the latest generation of global climate models and compare these with estimates from measurements. OC controls levels of many key reactive gases, including methane (CH4). We find small model trends up to 1980, then increases of about 9 % up to 2014, disagreeing with (uncertain) measurement-based trends. Major drivers of OC trends are emissions of CH4, NOx, and CO; these will be important for future CH4 trends.
Robert J. Allen, Steven Turnock, Pierre Nabat, David Neubauer, Ulrike Lohmann, Dirk Olivié, Naga Oshima, Martine Michou, Tongwen Wu, Jie Zhang, Toshihiko Takemura, Michael Schulz, Kostas Tsigaridis, Susanne E. Bauer, Louisa Emmons, Larry Horowitz, Vaishali Naik, Twan van Noije, Tommi Bergman, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Prodromos Zanis, Ina Tegen, Daniel M. Westervelt, Philippe Le Sager, Peter Good, Sungbo Shim, Fiona O'Connor, Dimitris Akritidis, Aristeidis K. Georgoulias, Makoto Deushi, Lori T. Sentman, Jasmin G. John, Shinichiro Fujimori, and William J. Collins
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9641–9663, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9641-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9641-2020, 2020
Christopher J. Smith, Ryan J. Kramer, Gunnar Myhre, Kari Alterskjær, William Collins, Adriana Sima, Olivier Boucher, Jean-Louis Dufresne, Pierre Nabat, Martine Michou, Seiji Yukimoto, Jason Cole, David Paynter, Hideo Shiogama, Fiona M. O'Connor, Eddy Robertson, Andy Wiltshire, Timothy Andrews, Cécile Hannay, Ron Miller, Larissa Nazarenko, Alf Kirkevåg, Dirk Olivié, Stephanie Fiedler, Anna Lewinschal, Chloe Mackallah, Martin Dix, Robert Pincus, and Piers M. Forster
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9591–9618, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020, 2020
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The spread in effective radiative forcing for both CO2 and aerosols is narrower in the latest CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) generation than in CMIP5. For the case of CO2 it is likely that model radiation parameterisations have improved. Tropospheric and stratospheric radiative adjustments to the forcing behave differently for different forcing agents, and there is still significant diversity in how clouds respond to forcings, particularly for total anthropogenic forcing.
Daniele Visioni, Giovanni Pitari, Vincenzo Rizi, Marco Iarlori, Irene Cionni, Ilaria Quaglia, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Neal Butchart, Martin Chipperfield, Makoto Deushi, Sandip S. Dhomse, Rolando Garcia, Patrick Joeckel, Douglas Kinnison, Jean-François Lamarque, Marion Marchand, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Tatsuya Nagashima, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, David Plummer, Eugene Rozanov, David Saint-Martin, Robyn Schofield, John Scinocca, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Kengo Sudo, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Simone Tilmes, Holger Tost, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-525, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-525, 2020
Preprint withdrawn
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In this work we analyse the trend in ozone profiles taken at L'Aquila (Italy, 42.4° N) for seventeen years, between 2000 and 2016 and compare them against already available measured ozone trends. We try to understand and explain the observed trends at various heights in light of the simulations from seventeen different model, highlighting the contribution of changes in circulation and chemical ozone loss during this time period.
Oliver Wild, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Fiona O'Connor, Jean-François Lamarque, Edmund M. Ryan, and Lindsay Lee
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 4047–4058, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4047-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4047-2020, 2020
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Global models of tropospheric chemistry and transport show a persistent diversity in results that has not been fully explained. We demonstrate the first use of global sensitivity analysis consistently across three independent models to explore these differences and reveal both clear similarities and surprising differences which have important implications for our assessment of future atmospheric composition change.
Alexander T. Archibald, Fiona M. O'Connor, Nathan Luke Abraham, Scott Archer-Nicholls, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Mohit Dalvi, Gerd A. Folberth, Fraser Dennison, Sandip S. Dhomse, Paul T. Griffiths, Catherine Hardacre, Alan J. Hewitt, Richard S. Hill, Colin E. Johnson, James Keeble, Marcus O. Köhler, Olaf Morgenstern, Jane P. Mulcahy, Carlos Ordóñez, Richard J. Pope, Steven T. Rumbold, Maria R. Russo, Nicholas H. Savage, Alistair Sellar, Marc Stringer, Steven T. Turnock, Oliver Wild, and Guang Zeng
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1223–1266, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1223-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1223-2020, 2020
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Here we present a description and evaluation of the UKCA stratosphere–troposphere chemistry scheme (StratTrop vn 1.0) implemented in the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1). UKCA StratTrop represents a substantial step forward compared to previous versions of UKCA. We show here that it is fully suited to the challenges of representing interactions in a coupled Earth system model and identify key areas and components for future development that will make it even better in the future.
Yuanhong Zhao, Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Xin Lin, Antoine Berchet, Michaela I. Hegglin, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Didier A. Hauglustaine, Sophie Szopa, Ann R. Stavert, Nathan Luke Abraham, Alex T. Archibald, Slimane Bekki, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Béatrice Josse, Douglas Kinnison, Ole Kirner, Virginie Marécal, Fiona M. O'Connor, David A. Plummer, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Sarah Strode, Simone Tilmes, Edward J. Dlugokencky, and Bo Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 13701–13723, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13701-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13701-2019, 2019
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The role of hydroxyl radical changes in methane trends is debated, hindering our understanding of the methane cycle. This study quantifies how uncertainties in the hydroxyl radical may influence methane abundance in the atmosphere based on the inter-model comparison of hydroxyl radical fields and model simulations of CH4 abundance with different hydroxyl radical scenarios during 2000–2016. We show that hydroxyl radical changes could contribute up to 54 % of model-simulated methane biases.
Kévin Lamy, Thierry Portafaix, Béatrice Josse, Colette Brogniez, Sophie Godin-Beekmann, Hassan Bencherif, Laura Revell, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Michaela I. Hegglin, Patrick Jöckel, Oliver Kirner, Ben Liley, Virginie Marecal, Olaf Morgenstern, Andrea Stenke, Guang Zeng, N. Luke Abraham, Alexander T. Archibald, Neil Butchart, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Glauco Di Genova, Makoto Deushi, Sandip S. Dhomse, Rong-Ming Hu, Douglas Kinnison, Michael Kotkamp, Richard McKenzie, Martine Michou, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, John A. Pyle, Eugene Rozanov, David Saint-Martin, Kengo Sudo, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Daniele Visioni, and Kohei Yoshida
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 10087–10110, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10087-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10087-2019, 2019
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In this study, we simulate the ultraviolet radiation evolution during the 21st century on Earth's surface using the output from several numerical models which participated in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative. We present four possible futures which depend on greenhouse gases emissions. The role of ozone-depleting substances, greenhouse gases and aerosols are investigated. Our results emphasize the important role of aerosols for future ultraviolet radiation in the Northern Hemisphere.
Ohad Harari, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Shlomi Ziskin Ziv, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Simone Tilmes, Douglas Kinnison, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Andrea Pozzer, Fiona M. O'Connor, and Sean Davis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 9253–9268, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9253-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9253-2019, 2019
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Ozone depletion in the Antarctic has been shown to influence surface conditions, but the effects of ozone depletion in the Arctic on surface climate are unclear. We show that Arctic ozone does influence surface climate in both polar regions and tropical regions, though the proximate cause of these surface impacts is not yet clear.
Jamie M. Kelly, Ruth M. Doherty, Fiona M. O'Connor, Graham W. Mann, Hugh Coe, and Dantong Liu
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2539–2569, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2539-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2539-2019, 2019
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This study develops the representation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) within a global chemistry–climate model (UKCA). Both dry and wet deposition within the UKCA model are extended to consider precursors of SOA. The oxidation mechanism describing SOA formation is also extended by adding a reaction intermediate, with SOA yields that are dependent on oxidant concentrations.
Zongbo Shi, Tuan Vu, Simone Kotthaus, Roy M. Harrison, Sue Grimmond, Siyao Yue, Tong Zhu, James Lee, Yiqun Han, Matthias Demuzere, Rachel E. Dunmore, Lujie Ren, Di Liu, Yuanlin Wang, Oliver Wild, James Allan, W. Joe Acton, Janet Barlow, Benjamin Barratt, David Beddows, William J. Bloss, Giulia Calzolai, David Carruthers, David C. Carslaw, Queenie Chan, Lia Chatzidiakou, Yang Chen, Leigh Crilley, Hugh Coe, Tie Dai, Ruth Doherty, Fengkui Duan, Pingqing Fu, Baozhu Ge, Maofa Ge, Daobo Guan, Jacqueline F. Hamilton, Kebin He, Mathew Heal, Dwayne Heard, C. Nicholas Hewitt, Michael Hollaway, Min Hu, Dongsheng Ji, Xujiang Jiang, Rod Jones, Markus Kalberer, Frank J. Kelly, Louisa Kramer, Ben Langford, Chun Lin, Alastair C. Lewis, Jie Li, Weijun Li, Huan Liu, Junfeng Liu, Miranda Loh, Keding Lu, Franco Lucarelli, Graham Mann, Gordon McFiggans, Mark R. Miller, Graham Mills, Paul Monk, Eiko Nemitz, Fionna O'Connor, Bin Ouyang, Paul I. Palmer, Carl Percival, Olalekan Popoola, Claire Reeves, Andrew R. Rickard, Longyi Shao, Guangyu Shi, Dominick Spracklen, David Stevenson, Yele Sun, Zhiwei Sun, Shu Tao, Shengrui Tong, Qingqing Wang, Wenhua Wang, Xinming Wang, Xuejun Wang, Zifang Wang, Lianfang Wei, Lisa Whalley, Xuefang Wu, Zhijun Wu, Pinhua Xie, Fumo Yang, Qiang Zhang, Yanli Zhang, Yuanhang Zhang, and Mei Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 7519–7546, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7519-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7519-2019, 2019
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APHH-Beijing is a collaborative international research programme to study the sources, processes and health effects of air pollution in Beijing. This introduction to the special issue provides an overview of (i) the APHH-Beijing programme, (ii) the measurement and modelling activities performed as part of it and (iii) the air quality and meteorological conditions during joint intensive field campaigns as a core activity within APHH-Beijing.
Laura E. Revell, Andrea Stenke, Fiona Tummon, Aryeh Feinberg, Eugene Rozanov, Thomas Peter, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alexander T. Archibald, Neal Butchart, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Douglas Kinnison, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, Robyn Schofield, Kane Stone, Simone Tilmes, Daniele Visioni, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 16155–16172, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16155-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16155-2018, 2018
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Global models such as those participating in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) consistently simulate biases in tropospheric ozone compared with observations. We performed an advanced statistical analysis with one of the CCMI models to understand the cause of the bias. We found that emissions of ozone precursor gases are the dominant driver of the bias, implying either that the emissions are too large, or that the way in which the model handles emissions needs to be improved.
Blanca Ayarzagüena, Lorenzo M. Polvani, Ulrike Langematz, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Neal Butchart, Martin Dameris, Makoto Deushi, Steven C. Hardiman, Patrick Jöckel, Andrew Klekociuk, Marion Marchand, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, David A. Plummer, Laura Revell, Eugene Rozanov, David Saint-Martin, John Scinocca, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Yousuke Yamashita, Kohei Yoshida, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11277–11287, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018, 2018
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Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are natural major disruptions of the polar stratospheric circulation that also affect surface weather. In the literature there are conflicting claims as to whether SSWs will change in the future. The confusion comes from studies using different models and methods. Here we settle the question by analysing 12 models with a consistent methodology, to show that no robust changes in frequency and other features are expected over the 21st century.
Edmund Ryan, Oliver Wild, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Lindsay Lee
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3131–3146, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3131-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3131-2018, 2018
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Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) identifies which parameters of a model most affect its output. We performed GSA using statistical emulators as surrogates of two slow-running atmospheric chemistry transport models. Due to the high dimension of the model outputs, we considered two alternative methods: one that reduced the output dimension and one that did not require an emulator. The alternative methods accurately performed the GSA but were significantly faster than the emulator-only method.
Steven T. Turnock, Oliver Wild, Frank J. Dentener, Yanko Davila, Louisa K. Emmons, Johannes Flemming, Gerd A. Folberth, Daven K. Henze, Jan E. Jonson, Terry J. Keating, Sudo Kengo, Meiyun Lin, Marianne Lund, Simone Tilmes, and Fiona M. O'Connor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8953–8978, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8953-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8953-2018, 2018
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A simple parameterisation was developed in this study to provide a rapid assessment of the impacts and uncertainties associated with future emission control strategies by predicting changes to surface ozone air quality and near-term climate forcing of ozone. Future emissions scenarios based on currently implemented legislation are shown to worsen surface ozone air quality and enhance near-term climate warming, with changes in methane becoming increasingly important in the future.
Sandip S. Dhomse, Douglas Kinnison, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Ross J. Salawitch, Irene Cionni, Michaela I. Hegglin, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alex T. Archibald, Ewa M. Bednarz, Slimane Bekki, Peter Braesicke, Neal Butchart, Martin Dameris, Makoto Deushi, Stacey Frith, Steven C. Hardiman, Birgit Hassler, Larry W. Horowitz, Rong-Ming Hu, Patrick Jöckel, Beatrice Josse, Oliver Kirner, Stefanie Kremser, Ulrike Langematz, Jared Lewis, Marion Marchand, Meiyun Lin, Eva Mancini, Virginie Marécal, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, John A. Pyle, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Robyn Schofield, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Kengo Sudo, Simone Tilmes, Daniele Visioni, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8409–8438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8409-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8409-2018, 2018
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We analyse simulations from the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) to estimate the return dates of the stratospheric ozone layer from depletion by anthropogenic chlorine and bromine. The simulations from 20 models project that global column ozone will return to 1980 values in 2047 (uncertainty range 2042–2052). Return dates in other regions vary depending on factors related to climate change and importance of chlorine and bromine. Column ozone in the tropics may continue to decline.
Jamie M. Kelly, Ruth M. Doherty, Fiona M. O'Connor, and Graham W. Mann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 7393–7422, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7393-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7393-2018, 2018
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The global secondary organic aerosol (SOA) budget is highly uncertain with global models typically underpredicting observed SOA concentrations. Using a global chemistry-climate model, the impacts of biogenic, anthropogenic, and biomass burning VOC emissions on the global SOA budget and model agreement with observed SOA concentrations are quantified.
Sara Fenech, Ruth M. Doherty, Clare Heaviside, Sotiris Vardoulakis, Helen L. Macintyre, and Fiona M. O'Connor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 5765–5784, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5765-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5765-2018, 2018
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The impact of model horizontal resolution on simulated surface ozone and particulate matter less than 2.5 μm concentrations, and the associated health impacts over Europe, using a coarse (~ 140 km) and a finer (~ 50 km) resolution is examined. Results highlight a strong seasonal variation in simulated O3 and PM2.5 differences between the two resolutions and demonstrate that health impact assessments are sensitive to a change in model resolution by up to ±5 % of the total mortality across Europe.
Lucy S. Neal, Mohit Dalvi, Gerd Folberth, Rachel N. McInnes, Paul Agnew, Fiona M. O'Connor, Nicholas H. Savage, and Marie Tilbee
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3941–3962, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3941-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3941-2017, 2017
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This paper concerns aspects of downscaling global atmospheric composition and chemistry model predictions on the continental and UK national scale. A two-step nested model configuration was developed and used to simulate UK air quality for a 5-year period under present-day conditions. The results show some benefits associated with higher-resolution modelling for primary emitted pollutants, but also highlight the importance of consistency between the nested models.
Steven C. Hardiman, Neal Butchart, Fiona M. O'Connor, and Steven T. Rumbold
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1209–1232, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1209-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1209-2017, 2017
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HadGEM3-ES is improved, with respect to the previous model, in 10 of the 14 metrics considered. A significant bias in stratospheric water vapour is reduced, allowing more accurate simulation of water vapour and ozone concentrations in the stratosphere. Dynamics are found to influence the spatial structure of the simulated ozone hole and the area of polar stratospheric clouds. This research was carried out as part of involvement in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCM-I).
Olaf Morgenstern, Michaela I. Hegglin, Eugene Rozanov, Fiona M. O'Connor, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alexander T. Archibald, Slimane Bekki, Neal Butchart, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Makoto Deushi, Sandip S. Dhomse, Rolando R. Garcia, Steven C. Hardiman, Larry W. Horowitz, Patrick Jöckel, Beatrice Josse, Douglas Kinnison, Meiyun Lin, Eva Mancini, Michael E. Manyin, Marion Marchand, Virginie Marécal, Martine Michou, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, Laura E. Revell, David Saint-Martin, Robyn Schofield, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Kengo Sudo, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Simone Tilmes, Yousuke Yamashita, Kohei Yoshida, and Guang Zeng
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 639–671, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-639-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-639-2017, 2017
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We present a review of the make-up of 20 models participating in the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). In comparison to earlier such activities, most of these models comprise a whole-atmosphere chemistry, and several of them include an interactive ocean module. This makes them suitable for studying the interactions of tropospheric air quality, stratospheric ozone, and climate. The paper lays the foundation for other studies using the CCMI simulations for scientific analysis.
G. D. Hayman, F. M. O'Connor, M. Dalvi, D. B. Clark, N. Gedney, C. Huntingford, C. Prigent, M. Buchwitz, O. Schneising, J. P. Burrows, C. Wilson, N. Richards, and M. Chipperfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 13257–13280, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13257-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13257-2014, 2014
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Globally, wetlands are a major source of methane, which is the second most important greenhouse gas. We find the JULES wetland methane scheme to perform well in general, although there is a tendency for it to overpredict emissions in the tropics and underpredict them in northern latitudes. Our study highlights novel uses of satellite data as a major tool to constrain land-atmosphere methane flux models in a warming world.
S. S. Dhomse, K. M. Emmerson, G. W. Mann, N. Bellouin, K. S. Carslaw, M. P. Chipperfield, R. Hommel, N. L. Abraham, P. Telford, P. Braesicke, M. Dalvi, C. E. Johnson, F. O'Connor, O. Morgenstern, J. A. Pyle, T. Deshler, J. M. Zawodny, and L. W. Thomason
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 11221–11246, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11221-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11221-2014, 2014
P. J. Telford, N. L. Abraham, A. T. Archibald, P. Braesicke, M. Dalvi, O. Morgenstern, F. M. O'Connor, N. A. D. Richards, and J. A. Pyle
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 161–177, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-161-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-161-2013, 2013
Stephanie Fiedler, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Christopher J. Smith, Paul Griffiths, Ryan J. Kramer, Toshihiko Takemura, Robert J. Allen, Ulas Im, Matthew Kasoar, Angshuman Modak, Steven Turnock, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Duncan Watson-Parris, Daniel M. Westervelt, Laura J. Wilcox, Alcide Zhao, William J. Collins, Michael Schulz, Gunnar Myhre, and Piers M. Forster
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2387–2417, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, 2024
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Climate scientists want to better understand modern climate change. Thus, climate model experiments are performed and compared. The results of climate model experiments differ, as assessed in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. This article gives insights into the challenges and outlines opportunities for further improving the understanding of climate change. It is based on views of a group of experts in atmospheric composition–climate interactions.
Emma Sands, Richard Pope, Ruth M. Doherty, Fiona M. O'Connor, Chris Wilson, and Hugh Pumphrey
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-503, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-503, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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Changes in vegetation alongside biomass burning impact regional atmospheric composition and air quality. Using satellite remote sensing, we find a clear linear relationship between forest cover and isoprene and a pronounced non-linear relationship between burned area and nitrogen dioxide in the southern Amazon, a region of substantial deforestation. These quantified relationships can be used for model evaluation and further exploration of biosphere-atmosphere interactions in Earth System Models.
Flossie Brown, Gerd Folberth, Stephen Sitch, Paulo Artaxo, Marijn Bauters, Pascal Boeckx, Alexander W. Cheesman, Matteo Detto, Ninong Komala, Luciana Rizzo, Nestor Rojas, Ines dos Santos Vieira, Steven Turnock, Hans Verbeeck, and Alfonso Zambrano
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2937, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2937, 2024
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Ozone is a pollutant that is detrimental to human and plant health. Ozone monitoring sites in the tropics are limited, so models are often used to assess ozone exposure. We use measurements from the tropics to evaluate ozone from the UK Earth system model, UKESM1. UKESM1 is able to capture the behaviour of ozone in the tropics, except in Southeast Asia. Results demonstrate that UKESM1 can be used for health assessments and highlights areas that would benefit from further observations.
Richard J. Pope, Fiona M. O'Connor, Mohit Dalvi, Brian J. Kerridge, Richard Siddans, Barry G. Latter, Brice Barret, Eric Le Flochmoen, Anne Boynard, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Wuhu Feng, Matilda A. Pimlott, Sandip S. Dhomse, Christian Retscher, Catherine Wespes, and Richard Rigby
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3109, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3109, 2024
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Ozone is a potent air pollutant in the lower troposphere with adverse impacts on human health. Satellite records of tropospheric ozone currently show large-scale inconsistencies in their long-term trends. Our detailed study of the potential factors (e.g. satellite errors, where the satellite can observe ozone) potentially driving these inconsistencies found that in North America, Europe and East Asia, the underlying trends are typically small with large uncertainties.
Olaf Morgenstern
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2427, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2427, 2023
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I use errors in climate model simulations of historical surface temperature to derive correction factors for the impacts of greenhouse gases and particles that bring these simulations into agreement with an observational reconstruction. On average, across 14 models a reduction by about 2/3 of the particles-induced cooling would be required, causing only 0.2 K of cooling since 1850. The greenhouse gas warming simulated by several highly sensitive models would also reduce.
Guang Zeng, Richard Querel, Hisako Shiona, Deniz Poyraz, Roeland Van Malderen, Alex Geddes, Penny Smale, Dan Smale, John Robinson, and Olaf Morgenstern
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2534, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2534, 2023
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We present a homogenised ozonesonde record (1987–2020) for Lauder, New Zealand, identify factors driving ozone trends, and attribute them to anthropogenic forcings using statistical analysis and model simulations. We find that significant negative stratospheric ozone trends identified at Lauder are associated with an increase in tropopause height and that CO2-driven dynamical changes have had an increasingly important role in driving ozone trends, offsetting effects of methane and nitrous oxide.
Zhenze Liu, Oliver Wild, Ruth M. Doherty, Fiona M. O'Connor, and Steven T. Turnock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13755–13768, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13755-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13755-2023, 2023
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We investigate the impact of net-zero policies on surface ozone pollution in China. A chemistry–climate model is used to simulate ozone changes driven by local and external emissions, methane, and warmer climates. A deep learning model is applied to generate more robust ozone projection, and we find that the benefits of net-zero policies may be overestimated with the chemistry–climate model. Nevertheless, it is clear that the policies can still substantially reduce ozone pollution in future.
Nicola J. Warwick, Alex T. Archibald, Paul T. Griffiths, James Keeble, Fiona M. O'Connor, John A. Pyle, and Keith P. Shine
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13451–13467, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13451-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13451-2023, 2023
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A chemistry–climate model has been used to explore the atmospheric response to changes in emissions of hydrogen and other species associated with a shift from fossil fuel to hydrogen use. Leakage of hydrogen results in indirect global warming, offsetting greenhouse gas emission reductions from reduced fossil fuel use. To maximise the benefit of hydrogen as an energy source, hydrogen leakage and emissions of methane, carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides should be minimised.
Monali Borthakur, Miriam Sinnhuber, Alexandra Laeng, Thomas Reddmann, Peter Braesicke, Gabriele Stiller, Thomas von Clarmann, Bernd Funke, Ilya Usoskin, Jan Maik Wissing, and Olesya Yakovchuk
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 12985–13013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-12985-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-12985-2023, 2023
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Reduced ozone levels resulting from ozone depletion mean more exposure to UV radiation, which has various effects on human health. We analysed solar events to see what influence it has on the chemistry of Earth's atmosphere and how this atmospheric chemistry change can affect the ozone. To do this, we used an atmospheric model considering only chemistry and compared it with satellite data. The focus was mainly on the contribution of chlorine, and we found about 10 %–20 % ozone loss due to that.
Marina Friedel, Gabriel Chiodo, Timofei Sukhodolov, James Keeble, Thomas Peter, Svenja Seeber, Andrea Stenke, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Eugene Rozanov, David Plummer, Patrick Jöckel, Guang Zeng, Olaf Morgenstern, and Béatrice Josse
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10235–10254, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10235-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10235-2023, 2023
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Previously, it has been suggested that springtime Arctic ozone depletion might worsen in the coming decades due to climate change, which might counteract the effect of reduced ozone-depleting substances. Here, we show with different chemistry–climate models that springtime Arctic ozone depletion will likely decrease in the future. Further, we explain why models show a large spread in the projected development of Arctic ozone depletion and use the model spread to constrain future projections.
Joao Carlos Martins Teixeira, Chantelle Burton, Douglas I. Kelly, Gerd A. Folberth, Fiona M. O'Connor, Richard A. Betts, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-136, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-136, 2023
Preprint under review for BG
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Representing socio-economic impacts on fires is crucial to underpin the confidence in global fire models. Introducing these into INFERNO, reduces biases and improves the modelled burnt area (BA) trends when compared to observations. Including socio-economic factors in the representation of fires in Earth System Models is important for realistically simulating BA, quantifying trends in the recent past, and for understanding the main drivers of those at regional scales.
Jonny Williams, Erik Behrens, Olaf Morgenstern, Peter Gibson, and Joao Teixeira
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1694, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1694, 2023
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We use open-source cyclone tracking software and state-of-the-art climate models to characterise present-day tropical cyclones – TCs – in the South Pacific before moving on to estimate how they may change in the future. A robust result of this work is the projection of future intensification of TCs. However, the question of their future occurrence frequency is less clear. Under extreme future warming scenarios, we postulate a possible increase in power dissipation per TC of up to 25 %.
Christian Scharun, Roland Ruhnke, and Peter Braesicke
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-91, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-91, 2023
Publication in GMD not foreseen
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The identification and quantification of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is an important task for monitoring mitigation strategies under climate change. With RICHARD 1.0, we developed a novel approach using spatiotemporal proxy data and a selection algorithm to detect GHG emission hotspots. By using a one year dataset of global climate model output we showed that RICHARD is able to determine and quantify the source strengths of GHG emission hotspots much more precisely than conventional methods.
Zixuan Jia, Carlos Ordóñez, Ruth M. Doherty, Oliver Wild, Steven T. Turnock, and Fiona M. O'Connor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 2829–2842, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2829-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2829-2023, 2023
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This study investigates the influence of the winter large-scale circulation on daily concentrations of PM2.5 and their sensitivity to emissions. The new proposed circulation index can effectively distinguish different levels of air pollution and explain changes in PM2.5 sensitivity to emissions from local and surrounding regions. We then project future changes in PM2.5 concentrations using this index and find an increase in PM2.5 concentrations over the region due to climate change.
Eric Förster, Harald Bönisch, Marco Neumaier, Florian Obersteiner, Andreas Zahn, Andreas Hilboll, Anna B. Kalisz Hedegaard, Nikos Daskalakis, Alexandros Panagiotis Poulidis, Mihalis Vrekoussis, Michael Lichtenstern, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 1893–1918, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1893-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1893-2023, 2023
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The airborne megacity campaign EMeRGe provided an unprecedented amount of trace gas measurements. We combine measured volatile organic compounds (VOCs) with trajectory-modelled emission uptakes to identify potential source regions of pollution. We also characterise the chemical fingerprints (e.g. biomass burning and anthropogenic signatures) of the probed air masses to corroborate the contributing source regions. Our approach is the first large-scale study of VOCs originating from megacities.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, Andy Jones, James M. Haywood, Jadwiga Richter, Douglas G. MacMartin, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 687–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-687-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-687-2023, 2023
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Building on Part 1 of this two-part study, we demonstrate the role of biases in climatological circulation and specific aspects of model microphysics in driving the differences in simulated sulfate distributions amongst three Earth system models. We then characterize the simulated changes in stratospheric and free-tropospheric temperatures, ozone, water vapor, and large-scale circulation, elucidating the role of the above aspects in the surface responses discussed in Part 1.
David S. Stevenson, Richard G. Derwent, Oliver Wild, and William J. Collins
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 14243–14252, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14243-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14243-2022, 2022
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Atmospheric methane’s growth rate rose by 50 % in 2020 relative to 2019. Lower nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions tend to increase methane’s atmospheric residence time; lower carbon monoxide (CO) and non-methane volatile organic compound (NMVOC) emissions decrease its lifetime. Combining model sensitivities with emission changes, we find that COVID-19 lockdown emission reductions can explain over half the observed increases in methane in 2020.
Ville Leinonen, Harri Kokkola, Taina Yli-Juuti, Tero Mielonen, Thomas Kühn, Tuomo Nieminen, Simo Heikkinen, Tuuli Miinalainen, Tommi Bergman, Ken Carslaw, Stefano Decesari, Markus Fiebig, Tareq Hussein, Niku Kivekäs, Radovan Krejci, Markku Kulmala, Ari Leskinen, Andreas Massling, Nikos Mihalopoulos, Jane P. Mulcahy, Steffen M. Noe, Twan van Noije, Fiona M. O'Connor, Colin O'Dowd, Dirk Olivie, Jakob B. Pernov, Tuukka Petäjä, Øyvind Seland, Michael Schulz, Catherine E. Scott, Henrik Skov, Erik Swietlicki, Thomas Tuch, Alfred Wiedensohler, Annele Virtanen, and Santtu Mikkonen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12873–12905, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12873-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12873-2022, 2022
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We provide the first extensive comparison of detailed aerosol size distribution trends between in situ observations from Europe and five different earth system models. We investigated aerosol modes (nucleation, Aitken, and accumulation) separately and were able to show the differences between measured and modeled trends and especially their seasonal patterns. The differences in model results are likely due to complex effects of several processes instead of certain specific model features.
Zhenze Liu, Ruth M. Doherty, Oliver Wild, Fiona M. O'Connor, and Steven T. Turnock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12543–12557, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12543-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12543-2022, 2022
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Weaknesses in process representation in chemistry–climate models lead to biases in simulating surface ozone and to uncertainty in projections of future ozone change. We develop a deep learning model to demonstrate the feasibility of ozone bias correction and show its capability in providing improved assessments of the impacts of climate and emission changes on future air quality, along with valuable information to guide future model development.
Flossie Brown, Gerd A. Folberth, Stephen Sitch, Susanne Bauer, Marijn Bauters, Pascal Boeckx, Alexander W. Cheesman, Makoto Deushi, Inês Dos Santos Vieira, Corinne Galy-Lacaux, James Haywood, James Keeble, Lina M. Mercado, Fiona M. O'Connor, Naga Oshima, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Hans Verbeeck
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12331–12352, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12331-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12331-2022, 2022
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Surface ozone can decrease plant productivity and impair human health. In this study, we evaluate the change in surface ozone due to climate change over South America and Africa using Earth system models. We find that if the climate were to change according to the worst-case scenario used here, models predict that forested areas in biomass burning locations and urban populations will be at increasing risk of ozone exposure, but other areas will experience a climate benefit.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Ryan Hossaini, Martyn P. Chipperfield, N. Luke Abraham, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 10657–10676, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10657-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10657-2022, 2022
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Atmospheric impacts of chlorinated very short-lived substances (Cl-VSLS) over the first two decades of the 21st century are assessed using the UM-UKCA chemistry–climate model. Stratospheric input of Cl from Cl-VSLS is estimated at ~130 ppt in 2019. The use of model set-up with constrained meteorology significantly increases the abundance of Cl-VSLS in the lower stratosphere relative to the free-running set-up. The growth in Cl-VSLS emissions significantly impacted recent HCl and COCl2 trends.
Henry Bowman, Steven Turnock, Susanne E. Bauer, Kostas Tsigaridis, Makoto Deushi, Naga Oshima, Fiona M. O'Connor, Larry Horowitz, Tongwen Wu, Jie Zhang, Dagmar Kubistin, and David D. Parrish
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3507–3524, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3507-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3507-2022, 2022
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A full understanding of ozone in the troposphere requires investigation of its temporal variability over all timescales. Model simulations show that the northern midlatitude ozone seasonal cycle shifted with industrial development (1850–2014), with an increasing magnitude and a later summer peak. That shift reached a maximum in the mid-1980s, followed by a reversal toward the preindustrial cycle. The few available observations, beginning in the 1970s, are consistent with the model simulations.
Florian Haenel, Wolfgang Woiwode, Jennifer Buchmüller, Felix Friedl-Vallon, Michael Höpfner, Sören Johansson, Farahnaz Khosrawi, Oliver Kirner, Anne Kleinert, Hermann Oelhaf, Johannes Orphal, Roland Ruhnke, Björn-Martin Sinnhuber, Jörn Ungermann, Michael Weimer, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2843–2870, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2843-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2843-2022, 2022
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We compare remote sensing observations of H2O, O3, HNO3 and clouds in the upper troposphere–lowermost stratosphere during an Arctic winter long-range research flight with simulations by two different state-of-the-art model systems. We find good agreement for dynamical structures, trace gas distributions and clouds. We investigate model biases and sensitivities, with the goal of aiding model development and improving our understanding of processes in the upper troposphere–lowermost stratosphere.
Zhenze Liu, Ruth M. Doherty, Oliver Wild, Fiona M. O'Connor, and Steven T. Turnock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1209–1227, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1209-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1209-2022, 2022
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Tropospheric ozone is important to future air quality and climate, and changing emissions and climate influence ozone. We investigate the evolution of ozone and ozone sensitivity from the present day (2004–2014) to the future (2045–2055) and explore the main drivers of ozone changes from global and regional perspectives. This helps guide suitable emission control strategies to mitigate ozone pollution.
Christopher J. Diekmann, Matthias Schneider, Benjamin Ertl, Frank Hase, Omaira García, Farahnaz Khosrawi, Eliezer Sepúlveda, Peter Knippertz, and Peter Braesicke
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5273–5292, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5273-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5273-2021, 2021
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The joint analysis of different stable water isotopes in water vapour is a powerful tool for investigating atmospheric moisture pathways. This paper presents a novel global and multi-annual dataset of H2O and HDO in mid-tropospheric water vapour by using data from the satellite sensor Metop/IASI. Due to its unique combination of coverage and resolution in space and time, this dataset is highly promising for studying the hydrological cycle and its representation in weather and climate models.
João C. Teixeira, Gerd A. Folberth, Fiona M. O'Connor, Nadine Unger, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6515–6539, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6515-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6515-2021, 2021
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Fire constitutes a key process in the Earth system, being driven by climate as well as affecting climate. However, studies on the effects of fires on atmospheric composition and climate have been limited to date. This work implements and assesses the coupling of an interactive fire model with atmospheric composition, comparing it to an offline approach. This approach shows good performance at a global scale. However, regional-scale limitations lead to a bias in modelling fire emissions.
Zhenze Liu, Ruth M. Doherty, Oliver Wild, Michael Hollaway, and Fiona M. O’Connor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10689–10706, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10689-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10689-2021, 2021
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Surface ozone (O3) has become the main cause of atmospheric pollution in the summertime in China since 2013. We find that 70 % reductions in NOx emissions are required to reduce O3 pollution in most of industrial regions of China, and controls in VOC emissions are very important. The new chemical scheme developed for a global chemistry–climate model not only captures the regional air pollution but also benefits the future studies of regional air-quality–climate interactions.
Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Yves Balkanski, Samuel Albani, Tommi Bergman, Ken Carslaw, Anne Cozic, Chris Dearden, Beatrice Marticorena, Martine Michou, Twan van Noije, Pierre Nabat, Fiona M. O'Connor, Dirk Olivié, Joseph M. Prospero, Philippe Le Sager, Michael Schulz, and Catherine Scott
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10295–10335, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10295-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10295-2021, 2021
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Thousands of tons of dust are emitted into the atmosphere every year, producing important impacts on the Earth system. However, current global climate models are not yet able to reproduce dust emissions, transport and depositions with the desirable accuracy. Our study analyses five different Earth system models to report aspects to be improved to reproduce better available observations, increase the consistency between models and therefore decrease the current uncertainties.
David D. Parrish, Richard G. Derwent, Steven T. Turnock, Fiona M. O'Connor, Johannes Staehelin, Susanne E. Bauer, Makoto Deushi, Naga Oshima, Kostas Tsigaridis, Tongwen Wu, and Jie Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9669–9679, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9669-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9669-2021, 2021
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The few ozone measurements made before the 1980s indicate that industrial development increased ozone concentrations by a factor of ~ 2 at northern midlatitudes, which are now larger than at southern midlatitudes. This difference was much smaller, and likely reversed, in the pre-industrial atmosphere. Earth system models find similar increases, but not higher pre-industrial ozone in the south. This disagreement may indicate that modeled natural ozone sources and/or deposition loss are inadequate.
Michael Weimer, Jennifer Buchmüller, Lars Hoffmann, Ole Kirner, Beiping Luo, Roland Ruhnke, Michael Steiner, Ines Tritscher, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9515–9543, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9515-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9515-2021, 2021
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We show that we are able to directly simulate polar stratospheric clouds formed locally in a mountain wave and represent their effect on the ozone chemistry with the global atmospheric chemistry model ICON-ART. Thus, we show the first simulations that close the gap between directly resolved mountain-wave-induced polar stratospheric clouds and their representation at coarse global resolutions.
Vidya Varma, Olaf Morgenstern, Kalli Furtado, Paul Field, and Jonny Williams
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-438, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We introduce a simple parametrisation whereby the immersion freezing temperature in the model is linked to the mineral dust distribution through a diagnostic function, thus invoking regional differences in the nucleation temperatures instead of the global default value of −10 °C. This provides a functionality to mimic the role of Ice Nucleating Particles in the atmosphere on influencing the short-wave radiation over the Southern Ocean region by impacting the cloud phase.
Garry D. Hayman, Edward Comyn-Platt, Chris Huntingford, Anna B. Harper, Tom Powell, Peter M. Cox, William Collins, Christopher Webber, Jason Lowe, Stephen Sitch, Joanna I. House, Jonathan C. Doelman, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, and Nicola Gedney
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 513–544, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-513-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-513-2021, 2021
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We model greenhouse gas emission scenarios consistent with limiting global warming to either 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. We quantify the effectiveness of methane emission control and land-based mitigation options regionally. Our results highlight the importance of reducing methane emissions for realistic emission pathways that meet the global warming targets. For land-based mitigation, growing bioenergy crops on existing agricultural land is preferable to replacing forests.
James Keeble, Birgit Hassler, Antara Banerjee, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Gabriel Chiodo, Sean Davis, Veronika Eyring, Paul T. Griffiths, Olaf Morgenstern, Peer Nowack, Guang Zeng, Jiankai Zhang, Greg Bodeker, Susannah Burrows, Philip Cameron-Smith, David Cugnet, Christopher Danek, Makoto Deushi, Larry W. Horowitz, Anne Kubin, Lijuan Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Martine Michou, Michael J. Mills, Pierre Nabat, Dirk Olivié, Sungsu Park, Øyvind Seland, Jens Stoll, Karl-Hermann Wieners, and Tongwen Wu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5015–5061, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, 2021
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Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system; changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. We evaluate changes to these species from 1850 to 2100 in the new generation of CMIP6 models. There is good agreement between the multi-model mean and observations, although there is substantial variation between the individual models. The future evolution of both ozone and water vapour is strongly dependent on the assumed future emissions scenario.
Paul T. Griffiths, Lee T. Murray, Guang Zeng, Youngsub Matthew Shin, N. Luke Abraham, Alexander T. Archibald, Makoto Deushi, Louisa K. Emmons, Ian E. Galbally, Birgit Hassler, Larry W. Horowitz, James Keeble, Jane Liu, Omid Moeini, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Naga Oshima, David Tarasick, Simone Tilmes, Steven T. Turnock, Oliver Wild, Paul J. Young, and Prodromos Zanis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4187–4218, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4187-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4187-2021, 2021
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We analyse the CMIP6 Historical and future simulations for tropospheric ozone, a species which is important for many aspects of atmospheric chemistry. We show that the current generation of models agrees well with observations, being particularly successful in capturing trends in surface ozone and its vertical distribution in the troposphere. We analyse the factors that control ozone and show that they evolve over the period of the CMIP6 experiments.
Chaim I. Garfinkel, Ohad Harari, Shlomi Ziskin Ziv, Jian Rao, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Simone Tilmes, Douglas Kinnison, Fiona M. O'Connor, Neal Butchart, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Andrea Pozzer, and Sean Davis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3725–3740, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3725-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3725-2021, 2021
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Water vapor is the dominant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, and El Niño is the dominant mode of variability in the ocean–atmosphere system. The connection between El Niño and water vapor above ~ 17 km is unclear, with single-model studies reaching a range of conclusions. This study examines this connection in 12 different models. While there are substantial differences among the models, all models appear to capture the fundamental physical processes correctly.
Fiona M. O'Connor, N. Luke Abraham, Mohit Dalvi, Gerd A. Folberth, Paul T. Griffiths, Catherine Hardacre, Ben T. Johnson, Ron Kahana, James Keeble, Byeonghyeon Kim, Olaf Morgenstern, Jane P. Mulcahy, Mark Richardson, Eddy Robertson, Jeongbyn Seo, Sungbo Shim, João C. Teixeira, Steven T. Turnock, Jonny Williams, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Stephanie Woodward, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1211–1243, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1211-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1211-2021, 2021
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This paper calculates how changes in emissions and/or concentrations of different atmospheric constituents since the pre-industrial era have altered the Earth's energy budget at the present day using a metric called effective radiative forcing. The impact of land use change is also assessed. We find that individual contributions do not add linearly, and different Earth system interactions can affect the magnitude of the calculated effective radiative forcing.
Gillian Thornhill, William Collins, Dirk Olivié, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Alex Archibald, Susanne Bauer, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Stephanie Fiedler, Gerd Folberth, Ada Gjermundsen, Larry Horowitz, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Martine Michou, Jane Mulcahy, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Fabien Paulot, Michael Schulz, Catherine E. Scott, Roland Séférian, Chris Smith, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, and James Weber
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1105–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1105-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1105-2021, 2021
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We find that increased temperatures affect aerosols and reactive gases by changing natural emissions and their rates of removal from the atmosphere. Changing the composition of these species in the atmosphere affects the radiative budget of the climate system and therefore amplifies or dampens the climate response of climate models of the Earth system. This study found that the largest effect is a dampening of climate change as warmer temperatures increase the emissions of cooling aerosols.
Gillian D. Thornhill, William J. Collins, Ryan J. Kramer, Dirk Olivié, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Fiona M. O'Connor, Nathan Luke Abraham, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Susanne E. Bauer, Makoto Deushi, Louisa K. Emmons, Piers M. Forster, Larry W. Horowitz, Ben Johnson, James Keeble, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Martine Michou, Michael J. Mills, Jane P. Mulcahy, Gunnar Myhre, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, Naga Oshima, Michael Schulz, Christopher J. Smith, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Tongwen Wu, Guang Zeng, and Jie Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 853–874, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-853-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-853-2021, 2021
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This paper is a study of how different constituents in the atmosphere, such as aerosols and gases like methane and ozone, affect the energy balance in the atmosphere. Different climate models were run using the same inputs to allow an easy comparison of the results and to understand where the models differ. We found the effect of aerosols is to reduce warming in the atmosphere, but this effect varies between models. Reactions between gases are also important in affecting climate.
Peter Kuma, Adrian J. McDonald, Olaf Morgenstern, Richard Querel, Israel Silber, and Connor J. Flynn
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 43–72, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-43-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-43-2021, 2021
James L. France, Prudence Bateson, Pamela Dominutti, Grant Allen, Stephen Andrews, Stephane Bauguitte, Max Coleman, Tom Lachlan-Cope, Rebecca E. Fisher, Langwen Huang, Anna E. Jones, James Lee, David Lowry, Joseph Pitt, Ruth Purvis, John Pyle, Jacob Shaw, Nicola Warwick, Alexandra Weiss, Shona Wilde, Jonathan Witherstone, and Stuart Young
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 71–88, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-71-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-71-2021, 2021
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Measuring emission rates of methane from installations is tricky, and it is even more so when those installations are located offshore. Here, we show the aircraft set-up and demonstrate an effective methodology for surveying emissions from UK and Dutch offshore oil and gas installations. We present example data collected from two campaigns to demonstrate the challenges and solutions encountered during these surveys.
Jane P. Mulcahy, Colin Johnson, Colin G. Jones, Adam C. Povey, Catherine E. Scott, Alistair Sellar, Steven T. Turnock, Matthew T. Woodhouse, Nathan Luke Abraham, Martin B. Andrews, Nicolas Bellouin, Jo Browse, Ken S. Carslaw, Mohit Dalvi, Gerd A. Folberth, Matthew Glover, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Catherine Hardacre, Richard Hill, Ben Johnson, Andy Jones, Zak Kipling, Graham Mann, James Mollard, Fiona M. O'Connor, Julien Palmiéri, Carly Reddington, Steven T. Rumbold, Mark Richardson, Nick A. J. Schutgens, Philip Stier, Marc Stringer, Yongming Tang, Jeremy Walton, Stephanie Woodward, and Andrew Yool
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6383–6423, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6383-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6383-2020, 2020
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Aerosols are an important component of the Earth system. Here, we comprehensively document and evaluate the aerosol schemes as implemented in the physical and Earth system models, HadGEM3-GC3.1 and UKESM1. This study provides a useful characterisation of the aerosol climatology in both models, facilitating the understanding of the numerous aerosol–climate interaction studies that will be conducted for CMIP6 and beyond.
Steven T. Turnock, Robert J. Allen, Martin Andrews, Susanne E. Bauer, Makoto Deushi, Louisa Emmons, Peter Good, Larry Horowitz, Jasmin G. John, Martine Michou, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, David Neubauer, Fiona M. O'Connor, Dirk Olivié, Naga Oshima, Michael Schulz, Alistair Sellar, Sungbo Shim, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, Tongwen Wu, and Jie Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14547–14579, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14547-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14547-2020, 2020
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A first assessment is made of the historical and future changes in air pollutants from models participating in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Substantial benefits to future air quality can be achieved in future scenarios that implement measures to mitigate climate and involve reductions in air pollutant emissions, particularly methane. However, important differences are shown between models in the future regional projection of air pollutants under the same scenario.
David S. Stevenson, Alcide Zhao, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Simone Tilmes, Guang Zeng, Lee T. Murray, William J. Collins, Paul T. Griffiths, Sungbo Shim, Larry W. Horowitz, Lori T. Sentman, and Louisa Emmons
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12905–12920, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12905-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12905-2020, 2020
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We present historical trends in atmospheric oxidizing capacity (OC) since 1850 from the latest generation of global climate models and compare these with estimates from measurements. OC controls levels of many key reactive gases, including methane (CH4). We find small model trends up to 1980, then increases of about 9 % up to 2014, disagreeing with (uncertain) measurement-based trends. Major drivers of OC trends are emissions of CH4, NOx, and CO; these will be important for future CH4 trends.
Andrew Orr, J. Scott Hosking, Aymeric Delon, Lars Hoffmann, Reinhold Spang, Tracy Moffat-Griffin, James Keeble, Nathan Luke Abraham, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12483–12497, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12483-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12483-2020, 2020
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Polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) are clouds found in the Antarctic winter stratosphere and are implicated in the formation of the ozone hole. These clouds can sometimes be formed or enhanced by mountain waves, formed as air passes over hills or mountains. However, this important mechanism is missing in coarse-resolution climate models, limiting our ability to simulate ozone. This study examines an attempt to include the effects of mountain waves and their impact on PSCs and ozone.
Matt Amos, Paul J. Young, J. Scott Hosking, Jean-François Lamarque, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alexander T. Archibald, Slimane Bekki, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Douglas Kinnison, Ole Kirner, Markus Kunze, Marion Marchand, David A. Plummer, David Saint-Martin, Kengo Sudo, Simone Tilmes, and Yousuke Yamashita
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9961–9977, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9961-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9961-2020, 2020
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We present an updated projection of Antarctic ozone hole recovery using an ensemble of chemistry–climate models. To do so, we employ a method, more advanced and skilful than the current multi-model mean standard, which is applicable to other ensemble analyses. It calculates the performance and similarity of the models, which we then use to weight the model. Calculating model similarity allows us to account for models which are constructed from similar components.
Robert J. Allen, Steven Turnock, Pierre Nabat, David Neubauer, Ulrike Lohmann, Dirk Olivié, Naga Oshima, Martine Michou, Tongwen Wu, Jie Zhang, Toshihiko Takemura, Michael Schulz, Kostas Tsigaridis, Susanne E. Bauer, Louisa Emmons, Larry Horowitz, Vaishali Naik, Twan van Noije, Tommi Bergman, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Prodromos Zanis, Ina Tegen, Daniel M. Westervelt, Philippe Le Sager, Peter Good, Sungbo Shim, Fiona O'Connor, Dimitris Akritidis, Aristeidis K. Georgoulias, Makoto Deushi, Lori T. Sentman, Jasmin G. John, Shinichiro Fujimori, and William J. Collins
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9641–9663, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9641-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9641-2020, 2020
Christopher J. Smith, Ryan J. Kramer, Gunnar Myhre, Kari Alterskjær, William Collins, Adriana Sima, Olivier Boucher, Jean-Louis Dufresne, Pierre Nabat, Martine Michou, Seiji Yukimoto, Jason Cole, David Paynter, Hideo Shiogama, Fiona M. O'Connor, Eddy Robertson, Andy Wiltshire, Timothy Andrews, Cécile Hannay, Ron Miller, Larissa Nazarenko, Alf Kirkevåg, Dirk Olivié, Stephanie Fiedler, Anna Lewinschal, Chloe Mackallah, Martin Dix, Robert Pincus, and Piers M. Forster
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9591–9618, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020, 2020
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The spread in effective radiative forcing for both CO2 and aerosols is narrower in the latest CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) generation than in CMIP5. For the case of CO2 it is likely that model radiation parameterisations have improved. Tropospheric and stratospheric radiative adjustments to the forcing behave differently for different forcing agents, and there is still significant diversity in how clouds respond to forcings, particularly for total anthropogenic forcing.
Vidya Varma, Olaf Morgenstern, Paul Field, Kalli Furtado, Jonny Williams, and Patrick Hyder
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 7741–7751, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7741-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7741-2020, 2020
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The present generation of global climate models has an insufficiently reflected short-wave radiation, especially over the Southern Ocean. This leads to an excessive heating of the ocean surface in the model, creating sea surface temperature biases and subsequent problems with atmospheric dynamics. Misrepresentation of clouds could be attributed to this radiation bias; we try to address this issue by slowing the growth rate of ice crystals and improving the supercooled liquid clouds in the model.
Daniele Visioni, Giovanni Pitari, Vincenzo Rizi, Marco Iarlori, Irene Cionni, Ilaria Quaglia, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Neal Butchart, Martin Chipperfield, Makoto Deushi, Sandip S. Dhomse, Rolando Garcia, Patrick Joeckel, Douglas Kinnison, Jean-François Lamarque, Marion Marchand, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Tatsuya Nagashima, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, David Plummer, Eugene Rozanov, David Saint-Martin, Robyn Schofield, John Scinocca, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Kengo Sudo, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Simone Tilmes, Holger Tost, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-525, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-525, 2020
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In this work we analyse the trend in ozone profiles taken at L'Aquila (Italy, 42.4° N) for seventeen years, between 2000 and 2016 and compare them against already available measured ozone trends. We try to understand and explain the observed trends at various heights in light of the simulations from seventeen different model, highlighting the contribution of changes in circulation and chemical ozone loss during this time period.
James Keeble, N. Luke Abraham, Alexander T. Archibald, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Sandip Dhomse, Paul T. Griffiths, and John A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 7153–7166, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7153-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7153-2020, 2020
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The Montreal Protocol was agreed in 1987 to limit and then stop the production of man-made CFCs, which destroy stratospheric ozone. As a result, the atmospheric abundances of CFCs are now declining in the atmosphere. However, the atmospheric abundance of CFC-11 is not declining as expected under complete compliance with the Montreal Protocol. Using the UM-UKCA chemistry–climate model, we explore the impact of future unregulated production of CFC-11 on ozone recovery.
Marta Abalos, Clara Orbe, Douglas E. Kinnison, David Plummer, Luke D. Oman, Patrick Jöckel, Olaf Morgenstern, Rolando R. Garcia, Guang Zeng, Kane A. Stone, and Martin Dameris
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6883–6901, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6883-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6883-2020, 2020
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A set of state-of-the art chemistry–climate models is used to examine future changes in downward transport from the stratosphere, a key contributor to tropospheric ozone. The acceleration of the stratospheric circulation results in increased stratosphere-to-troposphere transport. In the subtropics, downward advection into the troposphere is enhanced due to climate change. At higher latitudes, the ozone reservoir above the tropopause is enlarged due to the stronger circulation and ozone recovery.
Peter Kuma, Adrian J. McDonald, Olaf Morgenstern, Simon P. Alexander, John J. Cassano, Sally Garrett, Jamie Halla, Sean Hartery, Mike J. Harvey, Simon Parsons, Graeme Plank, Vidya Varma, and Jonny Williams
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6607–6630, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6607-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6607-2020, 2020
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We evaluate clouds over the Southern Ocean in the climate model HadGEM3 and reanalysis MERRA-2 using ship-based ceilometer and radiosonde observations. We find the models underestimate cloud cover by 18–25 %, with clouds below 2 km dominant in reality but lacking in the models. We find a strong link between clouds, atmospheric stability and sea surface temperature in observations but not in the models, implying that sub-grid processes do not generate enough cloud in response to these conditions.
Oliver Wild, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Fiona O'Connor, Jean-François Lamarque, Edmund M. Ryan, and Lindsay Lee
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 4047–4058, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4047-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4047-2020, 2020
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Global models of tropospheric chemistry and transport show a persistent diversity in results that has not been fully explained. We demonstrate the first use of global sensitivity analysis consistently across three independent models to explore these differences and reveal both clear similarities and surprising differences which have important implications for our assessment of future atmospheric composition change.
Alexander T. Archibald, Fiona M. O'Connor, Nathan Luke Abraham, Scott Archer-Nicholls, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Mohit Dalvi, Gerd A. Folberth, Fraser Dennison, Sandip S. Dhomse, Paul T. Griffiths, Catherine Hardacre, Alan J. Hewitt, Richard S. Hill, Colin E. Johnson, James Keeble, Marcus O. Köhler, Olaf Morgenstern, Jane P. Mulcahy, Carlos Ordóñez, Richard J. Pope, Steven T. Rumbold, Maria R. Russo, Nicholas H. Savage, Alistair Sellar, Marc Stringer, Steven T. Turnock, Oliver Wild, and Guang Zeng
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1223–1266, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1223-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1223-2020, 2020
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Here we present a description and evaluation of the UKCA stratosphere–troposphere chemistry scheme (StratTrop vn 1.0) implemented in the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1). UKCA StratTrop represents a substantial step forward compared to previous versions of UKCA. We show here that it is fully suited to the challenges of representing interactions in a coupled Earth system model and identify key areas and components for future development that will make it even better in the future.
Conor G. Bolas, Valerio Ferracci, Andrew D. Robinson, Mohammed I. Mead, Mohd Shahrul Mohd Nadzir, John A. Pyle, Roderic L. Jones, and Neil R. P. Harris
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 821–838, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-821-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-821-2020, 2020
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Here we present the iDirac, a new instrument capable of making isoprene measurements in remote and challenging environments. The iDirac is a customisable and rugged field instrument for investigating emissions of volatile organic compounds from vegetation. It has been tested here in a series of experiments to ensure a high degree of technical precision, accuracy and repeatability. This new instrument allows us to ask and answer new questions about the influence of vegetation on the atmosphere.
Julie M. Nicely, Bryan N. Duncan, Thomas F. Hanisco, Glenn M. Wolfe, Ross J. Salawitch, Makoto Deushi, Amund S. Haslerud, Patrick Jöckel, Béatrice Josse, Douglas E. Kinnison, Andrew Klekociuk, Michael E. Manyin, Virginie Marécal, Olaf Morgenstern, Lee T. Murray, Gunnar Myhre, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, Andrea Pozzer, Ilaria Quaglia, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Susan Strahan, Simone Tilmes, Holger Tost, Daniel M. Westervelt, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 1341–1361, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1341-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1341-2020, 2020
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Differences in methane lifetime among global models are large and poorly understood. We use a neural network method and simulations from the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative to quantify the factors influencing methane lifetime spread among models and variations over time. UV photolysis, tropospheric ozone, and nitrogen oxides drive large model differences, while the same factors plus specific humidity contribute to a decreasing trend in methane lifetime between 1980 and 2015.
Laura E. Revell, Stefanie Kremser, Sean Hartery, Mike Harvey, Jane P. Mulcahy, Jonny Williams, Olaf Morgenstern, Adrian J. McDonald, Vidya Varma, Leroy Bird, and Alex Schuddeboom
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 15447–15466, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15447-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15447-2019, 2019
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Aerosols over the Southern Ocean consist primarily of sea salt and sulfate, yet are seasonally biased in our model. We test three sulfate chemistry schemes to investigate DMS oxidation, which forms sulfate aerosol. Simulated cloud droplet number concentrations improve using more complex sulfate chemistry. We also show that a new sea spray aerosol source function, developed from measurements made on a recent Southern Ocean research voyage, improves the model's simulation of aerosol optical depth.
Yuanhong Zhao, Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Xin Lin, Antoine Berchet, Michaela I. Hegglin, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Didier A. Hauglustaine, Sophie Szopa, Ann R. Stavert, Nathan Luke Abraham, Alex T. Archibald, Slimane Bekki, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Béatrice Josse, Douglas Kinnison, Ole Kirner, Virginie Marécal, Fiona M. O'Connor, David A. Plummer, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Sarah Strode, Simone Tilmes, Edward J. Dlugokencky, and Bo Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 13701–13723, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13701-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13701-2019, 2019
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The role of hydroxyl radical changes in methane trends is debated, hindering our understanding of the methane cycle. This study quantifies how uncertainties in the hydroxyl radical may influence methane abundance in the atmosphere based on the inter-model comparison of hydroxyl radical fields and model simulations of CH4 abundance with different hydroxyl radical scenarios during 2000–2016. We show that hydroxyl radical changes could contribute up to 54 % of model-simulated methane biases.
Marleen Braun, Jens-Uwe Grooß, Wolfgang Woiwode, Sören Johansson, Michael Höpfner, Felix Friedl-Vallon, Hermann Oelhaf, Peter Preusse, Jörn Ungermann, Björn-Martin Sinnhuber, Helmut Ziereis, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 13681–13699, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13681-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13681-2019, 2019
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We analyse nitrification of the LMS in the Arctic winter 2015–2016 based on GLORIA measurements. Vertical cross sections of HNO3 for several flights show complex fine–scale structures and enhanced values down to 9 km. The extent of overall nitrification is quantified based on HNO3–O3 correlations and reaches between 5 ppbv and 7 ppbv at potential temperature levels between 350 and 380 K. Further, we compare our result with the atmospheric model CLaMS.
Andreas Chrysanthou, Amanda C. Maycock, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Sandip Dhomse, Hella Garny, Douglas Kinnison, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Makoto Deushi, Rolando R. Garcia, Patrick Jöckel, Oliver Kirner, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, Laura Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Daniele Visioni, and Yousuke Yamashita
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 11559–11586, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11559-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11559-2019, 2019
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We perform the first multi-model comparison of the impact of nudged meteorology on the stratospheric residual circulation (RC) in chemistry–climate models. Nudging meteorology does not constrain the mean strength of RC compared to free-running simulations, and despite the lack of agreement in the mean circulation, nudging tightly constrains the inter-annual variability in the tropical upward mass flux in the lower stratosphere. In summary, nudging strongly affects the representation of RC.
Kévin Lamy, Thierry Portafaix, Béatrice Josse, Colette Brogniez, Sophie Godin-Beekmann, Hassan Bencherif, Laura Revell, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Michaela I. Hegglin, Patrick Jöckel, Oliver Kirner, Ben Liley, Virginie Marecal, Olaf Morgenstern, Andrea Stenke, Guang Zeng, N. Luke Abraham, Alexander T. Archibald, Neil Butchart, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Glauco Di Genova, Makoto Deushi, Sandip S. Dhomse, Rong-Ming Hu, Douglas Kinnison, Michael Kotkamp, Richard McKenzie, Martine Michou, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, John A. Pyle, Eugene Rozanov, David Saint-Martin, Kengo Sudo, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Daniele Visioni, and Kohei Yoshida
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 10087–10110, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10087-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10087-2019, 2019
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In this study, we simulate the ultraviolet radiation evolution during the 21st century on Earth's surface using the output from several numerical models which participated in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative. We present four possible futures which depend on greenhouse gases emissions. The role of ozone-depleting substances, greenhouse gases and aerosols are investigated. Our results emphasize the important role of aerosols for future ultraviolet radiation in the Northern Hemisphere.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Amanda C. Maycock, Peter Braesicke, Paul J. Telford, N. Luke Abraham, and John A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 9833–9846, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9833-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9833-2019, 2019
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The atmospheric response to the amplitude of 11-year solar cycle in UM-UKCA is separated into the contributions from changes in direct radiative heating and photolysis rates, and the results compared with a control case with both effects included. We find that while the tropical responses are largely additive, this is not necessarily the case in the high latitudes. We suggest that solar-induced changes in ozone are important for modulating the SH dynamical response to the 11-year solar cycle.
Nils König, Peter Braesicke, and Thomas von Clarmann
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 4113–4129, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-4113-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-4113-2019, 2019
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Inference of the tropopause from temperature profiles of finite vertical resolution entails an uncertainty of the tropopause altitude. We assess this effect by degrading the resolution of the sonde data. The tropopause altitude inferred from coarse grid profiles was found to be lower than that inferred from the original profiles for tropical and midlatitudinal radiosonde profiles. The mean displacement of the lapse rate tropopause inferred from a 3 km resolution profile is −400 m for Hilo.
Ohad Harari, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Shlomi Ziskin Ziv, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Simone Tilmes, Douglas Kinnison, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Andrea Pozzer, Fiona M. O'Connor, and Sean Davis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 9253–9268, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9253-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9253-2019, 2019
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Ozone depletion in the Antarctic has been shown to influence surface conditions, but the effects of ozone depletion in the Arctic on surface climate are unclear. We show that Arctic ozone does influence surface climate in both polar regions and tropical regions, though the proximate cause of these surface impacts is not yet clear.
Christoph Heinze, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Colin Jones, Yves Balkanski, William Collins, Thierry Fichefet, Shuang Gao, Alex Hall, Detelina Ivanova, Wolfgang Knorr, Reto Knutti, Alexander Löw, Michael Ponater, Martin G. Schultz, Michael Schulz, Pier Siebesma, Joao Teixeira, George Tselioudis, and Martin Vancoppenolle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 379–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-379-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-379-2019, 2019
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Earth system models for producing climate projections under given forcings include additional processes and feedbacks that traditional physical climate models do not consider. We present an overview of climate feedbacks for key Earth system components and discuss the evaluation of these feedbacks. The target group for this article includes generalists with a background in natural sciences and an interest in climate change as well as experts working in interdisciplinary climate research.
Jamie M. Kelly, Ruth M. Doherty, Fiona M. O'Connor, Graham W. Mann, Hugh Coe, and Dantong Liu
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2539–2569, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2539-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2539-2019, 2019
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This study develops the representation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) within a global chemistry–climate model (UKCA). Both dry and wet deposition within the UKCA model are extended to consider precursors of SOA. The oxidation mechanism describing SOA formation is also extended by adding a reaction intermediate, with SOA yields that are dependent on oxidant concentrations.
Petr Šácha, Roland Eichinger, Hella Garny, Petr Pišoft, Simone Dietmüller, Laura de la Torre, David A. Plummer, Patrick Jöckel, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Neal Butchart, and Juan A. Añel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 7627–7647, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7627-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7627-2019, 2019
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Climate models robustly project a Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) acceleration in the course of climate change. Analyzing mean age of stratospheric air (AoA) from a subset of climate projection simulations, we find a remarkable agreement in simulating the largest AoA trends in the extratropical stratosphere. This is shown to be related with the upward shift of the circulation, resulting in a so-called stratospheric shrinkage, which could be one of the so-far-omitted BDC acceleration drivers.
Zongbo Shi, Tuan Vu, Simone Kotthaus, Roy M. Harrison, Sue Grimmond, Siyao Yue, Tong Zhu, James Lee, Yiqun Han, Matthias Demuzere, Rachel E. Dunmore, Lujie Ren, Di Liu, Yuanlin Wang, Oliver Wild, James Allan, W. Joe Acton, Janet Barlow, Benjamin Barratt, David Beddows, William J. Bloss, Giulia Calzolai, David Carruthers, David C. Carslaw, Queenie Chan, Lia Chatzidiakou, Yang Chen, Leigh Crilley, Hugh Coe, Tie Dai, Ruth Doherty, Fengkui Duan, Pingqing Fu, Baozhu Ge, Maofa Ge, Daobo Guan, Jacqueline F. Hamilton, Kebin He, Mathew Heal, Dwayne Heard, C. Nicholas Hewitt, Michael Hollaway, Min Hu, Dongsheng Ji, Xujiang Jiang, Rod Jones, Markus Kalberer, Frank J. Kelly, Louisa Kramer, Ben Langford, Chun Lin, Alastair C. Lewis, Jie Li, Weijun Li, Huan Liu, Junfeng Liu, Miranda Loh, Keding Lu, Franco Lucarelli, Graham Mann, Gordon McFiggans, Mark R. Miller, Graham Mills, Paul Monk, Eiko Nemitz, Fionna O'Connor, Bin Ouyang, Paul I. Palmer, Carl Percival, Olalekan Popoola, Claire Reeves, Andrew R. Rickard, Longyi Shao, Guangyu Shi, Dominick Spracklen, David Stevenson, Yele Sun, Zhiwei Sun, Shu Tao, Shengrui Tong, Qingqing Wang, Wenhua Wang, Xinming Wang, Xuejun Wang, Zifang Wang, Lianfang Wei, Lisa Whalley, Xuefang Wu, Zhijun Wu, Pinhua Xie, Fumo Yang, Qiang Zhang, Yanli Zhang, Yuanhang Zhang, and Mei Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 7519–7546, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7519-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7519-2019, 2019
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APHH-Beijing is a collaborative international research programme to study the sources, processes and health effects of air pollution in Beijing. This introduction to the special issue provides an overview of (i) the APHH-Beijing programme, (ii) the measurement and modelling activities performed as part of it and (iii) the air quality and meteorological conditions during joint intensive field campaigns as a core activity within APHH-Beijing.
Zainab Q. Hakim, Scott Archer-Nicholls, Gufran Beig, Gerd A. Folberth, Kengo Sudo, Nathan Luke Abraham, Sachin Ghude, Daven K. Henze, and Alexander T. Archibald
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 6437–6458, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6437-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6437-2019, 2019
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Surface ozone is an important air pollutant and recent work has calculated that large numbers of people die prematurely because of exposure to high levels of surface ozone in India. However, these calculations require model simulations of ozone as key inputs.
Here we perform the most thorough evaluation of global model surface ozone over India to date. These analyses of model simulations and observations highlight some successes and shortcomings and the need for further process-based studies.
Huang Yang, Darryn W. Waugh, Clara Orbe, Guang Zeng, Olaf Morgenstern, Douglas E. Kinnison, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Simone Tilmes, David A. Plummer, Patrick Jöckel, Susan E. Strahan, Kane A. Stone, and Robyn Schofield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 5511–5528, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5511-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5511-2019, 2019
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We evaluate the performance of a suite of models in simulating the large-scale transport from the northern midlatitudes to the Arctic using a CO-like idealized tracer. We find a large multi-model spread of the Arctic concentration of this CO-like tracer that is well correlated with the differences in the location of the midlatitude jet as well as the northern Hadley Cell edge. Our results suggest the Hadley Cell is key and zonal-mean transport by surface meridional flow needs better constraint.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Amanda C. Maycock, Paul J. Telford, Peter Braesicke, N. Luke Abraham, and John A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 5209–5233, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5209-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5209-2019, 2019
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Following model improvements, the atmospheric response to the 11-year solar cycle forcing simulated in the UM-UKCA chemistry–climate model is discussed for the first time. In contrast to most previous studies in the literature, we compare the results diagnosed using both a composite and a MLR methodology, and we show that apparently different signals can be diagnosed in the troposphere. In addition, we look at the role of internal atmospheric variability for the detection of the solar response.
Fraser Dennison, James Keeble, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, N. Luke Abraham, and Xin Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1227–1239, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1227-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1227-2019, 2019
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Two developments are made to the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols (UKCA) model to improve simulation of stratospheric ozone. The first is the addition of a solar cycle. The influence on ozone from the solar cycle is found to be 1–2 %, which is consistent with other studies. The second is to the heterogeneous chemistry, the most significant change being the addition of reactions involving bromine species. This was shown to reduce ozone biases relative to observations in most regions.
Florent F. Malavelle, Jim M. Haywood, Lina M. Mercado, Gerd A. Folberth, Nicolas Bellouin, Stephen Sitch, and Paulo Artaxo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 1301–1326, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1301-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1301-2019, 2019
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Diffuse light can increase the efficiency of vegetation photosynthesis. Diffuse light results from scattering by either clouds or aerosols in the atmosphere. During the dry season biomass burning (BB) on the edges of the Amazon rainforest contributes significantly to the aerosol burden over the entire region. We show that despite a modest effect of change in light conditions, the overall impact of BB aerosols on the vegetation is still important when indirect climate feedbacks are considered.
Roland Eichinger, Simone Dietmüller, Hella Garny, Petr Šácha, Thomas Birner, Harald Bönisch, Giovanni Pitari, Daniele Visioni, Andrea Stenke, Eugene Rozanov, Laura Revell, David A. Plummer, Patrick Jöckel, Luke Oman, Makoto Deushi, Douglas E. Kinnison, Rolando Garcia, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Kane Adam Stone, and Robyn Schofield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 921–940, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-921-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-921-2019, 2019
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To shed more light upon the changes in stratospheric circulation in the 21st century, climate projection simulations of 10 state-of-the-art global climate models, spanning from 1960 to 2100, are analyzed. The study shows that in addition to changes in transport, mixing also plays an important role in stratospheric circulation and that the properties of mixing vary over time. Furthermore, the influence of mixing is quantified and a dynamical framework is provided to understand the changes.
Winfried Hoke, Tina Swierczynski, Peter Braesicke, Karin Lochte, Len Shaffrey, Martin Drews, Hilppa Gregow, Ralf Ludwig, Jan Even Øie Nilsen, Elisa Palazzi, Gianmaria Sannino, Lars Henrik Smedsrud, and ECRA network
Adv. Geosci., 46, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-46-1-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-46-1-2019, 2019
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The European Climate Research Alliance is a bottom-up association of European research institutions helping to facilitate the development of climate change research, combining the capacities of national research institutions and inducing closer ties between existing national research initiatives, projects and infrastructures. This article briefly introduces the network's structure and organisation, as well as project management issues and prospects.
Johannes Eckstein, Roland Ruhnke, Stephan Pfahl, Emanuel Christner, Christopher Diekmann, Christoph Dyroff, Daniel Reinert, Daniel Rieger, Matthias Schneider, Jennifer Schröter, Andreas Zahn, and Peter Braesicke
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5113–5133, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5113-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5113-2018, 2018
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We present ICON-ART-Iso, an extension to the global circulation model ICON, which allows for the simulation of the stable isotopologues of water. The main advantage over other isotope-enabled models is its flexible design with respect to the number of tracers simulated. We compare the results of several simulations to measurements of different scale. ICON-ART-Iso is able to reasonably reproduce the measurements. It is a promising tool to aid in the investigation of the atmospheric water cycle.
Laura E. Revell, Andrea Stenke, Fiona Tummon, Aryeh Feinberg, Eugene Rozanov, Thomas Peter, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alexander T. Archibald, Neal Butchart, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Douglas Kinnison, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, Robyn Schofield, Kane Stone, Simone Tilmes, Daniele Visioni, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 16155–16172, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16155-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16155-2018, 2018
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Global models such as those participating in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) consistently simulate biases in tropospheric ozone compared with observations. We performed an advanced statistical analysis with one of the CCMI models to understand the cause of the bias. We found that emissions of ozone precursor gases are the dominant driver of the bias, implying either that the emissions are too large, or that the way in which the model handles emissions needs to be improved.
Arlene M. Fiore, Emily V. Fischer, George P. Milly, Shubha Pandey Deolal, Oliver Wild, Daniel A. Jaffe, Johannes Staehelin, Olivia E. Clifton, Dan Bergmann, William Collins, Frank Dentener, Ruth M. Doherty, Bryan N. Duncan, Bernd Fischer, Stefan Gilge, Peter G. Hess, Larry W. Horowitz, Alexandru Lupu, Ian A. MacKenzie, Rokjin Park, Ludwig Ries, Michael G. Sanderson, Martin G. Schultz, Drew T. Shindell, Martin Steinbacher, David S. Stevenson, Sophie Szopa, Christoph Zellweger, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 15345–15361, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15345-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15345-2018, 2018
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We demonstrate a proof-of-concept approach for applying northern midlatitude mountaintop peroxy acetyl nitrate (PAN) measurements and a multi-model ensemble during April to constrain the influence of continental-scale anthropogenic precursor emissions on PAN. Our findings imply a role for carefully coordinated multi-model ensembles in helping identify observations for discriminating among widely varying (and poorly constrained) model responses of atmospheric constituents to changes in emissions.
Jennifer Schröter, Daniel Rieger, Christian Stassen, Heike Vogel, Michael Weimer, Sven Werchner, Jochen Förstner, Florian Prill, Daniel Reinert, Günther Zängl, Marco Giorgetta, Roland Ruhnke, Bernhard Vogel, and Peter Braesicke
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4043–4068, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4043-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4043-2018, 2018
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In this paper, we introduce the most up-to-date version of the flexible tracer framework for the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic model with
Aerosols and Reactive Trace gases (ICON-ART).
We performed multiple simulations using different ICON physics configurations for weather and climate with ART.
The flexible tracer framework within ICON-ART 2.1 suits the demands of a large variety of different applications ranging from numerical weather prediction to climate integrations.
Blanca Ayarzagüena, Lorenzo M. Polvani, Ulrike Langematz, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Neal Butchart, Martin Dameris, Makoto Deushi, Steven C. Hardiman, Patrick Jöckel, Andrew Klekociuk, Marion Marchand, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, David A. Plummer, Laura Revell, Eugene Rozanov, David Saint-Martin, John Scinocca, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Yousuke Yamashita, Kohei Yoshida, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11277–11287, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018, 2018
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Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are natural major disruptions of the polar stratospheric circulation that also affect surface weather. In the literature there are conflicting claims as to whether SSWs will change in the future. The confusion comes from studies using different models and methods. Here we settle the question by analysing 12 models with a consistent methodology, to show that no robust changes in frequency and other features are expected over the 21st century.
Edmund Ryan, Oliver Wild, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Lindsay Lee
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3131–3146, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3131-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3131-2018, 2018
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Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) identifies which parameters of a model most affect its output. We performed GSA using statistical emulators as surrogates of two slow-running atmospheric chemistry transport models. Due to the high dimension of the model outputs, we considered two alternative methods: one that reduced the output dimension and one that did not require an emulator. The alternative methods accurately performed the GSA but were significantly faster than the emulator-only method.
Emre Esentürk, Nathan Luke Abraham, Scott Archer-Nicholls, Christina Mitsakou, Paul Griffiths, Alex Archibald, and John Pyle
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3089–3108, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3089-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3089-2018, 2018
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An integral and expensive part of coupled climate model simulations is the gas-phase chemistry which gives rise to hundreds of coupled differential equations. We propose a method which improves the convergence and robustness properties of commonly used Newton–Raphson solvers. The method is flexible and can be appended to most algorithms. The approach can be useful for a broader community of computational scientists whose interests lie in solving systems with intensive interactive chemistry.
Ciao-Kai Liang, J. Jason West, Raquel A. Silva, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Yanko Davila, Frank J. Dentener, Louisa Emmons, Johannes Flemming, Gerd Folberth, Daven Henze, Ulas Im, Jan Eiof Jonson, Terry J. Keating, Tom Kucsera, Allen Lenzen, Meiyun Lin, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Xiaohua Pan, Rokjin J. Park, R. Bradley Pierce, Takashi Sekiya, Kengo Sudo, and Toshihiko Takemura
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 10497–10520, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10497-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10497-2018, 2018
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Emissions from one continent affect air quality and health elsewhere. Here we quantify the effects of intercontinental PM2.5 and ozone transport on human health using a new multi-model ensemble, evaluating the health effects of emissions from six world regions and three emission source sectors. Emissions from one region have significant health impacts outside of that source region; similarly, foreign emissions contribute significantly to air-pollution-related deaths in several world regions.
Rebecca J. Oliver, Lina M. Mercado, Stephen Sitch, David Simpson, Belinda E. Medlyn, Yan-Shih Lin, and Gerd A. Folberth
Biogeosciences, 15, 4245–4269, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4245-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4245-2018, 2018
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Potential gains in terrestrial carbon sequestration over Europe from elevated CO2 can be partially offset by concurrent rises in tropospheric O3. The land surface model JULES was run in a factorial suite of experiments showing that by 2050 simulated GPP was reduced by 4 to 9 % due to plant O3 damage. Large regional variations exist with larger impacts identified for temperate compared to boreal regions. Plant O3 damage was greatest over the twentieth century and declined into the future.
Steven T. Turnock, Oliver Wild, Frank J. Dentener, Yanko Davila, Louisa K. Emmons, Johannes Flemming, Gerd A. Folberth, Daven K. Henze, Jan E. Jonson, Terry J. Keating, Sudo Kengo, Meiyun Lin, Marianne Lund, Simone Tilmes, and Fiona M. O'Connor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8953–8978, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8953-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8953-2018, 2018
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A simple parameterisation was developed in this study to provide a rapid assessment of the impacts and uncertainties associated with future emission control strategies by predicting changes to surface ozone air quality and near-term climate forcing of ozone. Future emissions scenarios based on currently implemented legislation are shown to worsen surface ozone air quality and enhance near-term climate warming, with changes in methane becoming increasingly important in the future.
Farahnaz Khosrawi, Oliver Kirner, Gabriele Stiller, Michael Höpfner, Michelle L. Santee, Sylvia Kellmann, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8873–8892, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8873-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8873-2018, 2018
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An extensive assessment of the performance of the chemistry–climate model EMAC is given for Arctic winters 2009/2010 and 2010/2011. The EMAC simulations are compared to satellite observations. The comparisons between EMAC simulations and satellite observations show that model and measurements compare well for these two Arctic winters. However, differences between model and observations are found that need improvements in the model in the future.
Sandip S. Dhomse, Douglas Kinnison, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Ross J. Salawitch, Irene Cionni, Michaela I. Hegglin, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alex T. Archibald, Ewa M. Bednarz, Slimane Bekki, Peter Braesicke, Neal Butchart, Martin Dameris, Makoto Deushi, Stacey Frith, Steven C. Hardiman, Birgit Hassler, Larry W. Horowitz, Rong-Ming Hu, Patrick Jöckel, Beatrice Josse, Oliver Kirner, Stefanie Kremser, Ulrike Langematz, Jared Lewis, Marion Marchand, Meiyun Lin, Eva Mancini, Virginie Marécal, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, John A. Pyle, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Robyn Schofield, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Kengo Sudo, Simone Tilmes, Daniele Visioni, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8409–8438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8409-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8409-2018, 2018
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We analyse simulations from the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) to estimate the return dates of the stratospheric ozone layer from depletion by anthropogenic chlorine and bromine. The simulations from 20 models project that global column ozone will return to 1980 values in 2047 (uncertainty range 2042–2052). Return dates in other regions vary depending on factors related to climate change and importance of chlorine and bromine. Column ozone in the tropics may continue to decline.
Jamie M. Kelly, Ruth M. Doherty, Fiona M. O'Connor, and Graham W. Mann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 7393–7422, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7393-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7393-2018, 2018
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The global secondary organic aerosol (SOA) budget is highly uncertain with global models typically underpredicting observed SOA concentrations. Using a global chemistry-climate model, the impacts of biogenic, anthropogenic, and biomass burning VOC emissions on the global SOA budget and model agreement with observed SOA concentrations are quantified.
Clara Orbe, Huang Yang, Darryn W. Waugh, Guang Zeng, Olaf Morgenstern, Douglas E. Kinnison, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Simone Tilmes, David A. Plummer, John F. Scinocca, Beatrice Josse, Virginie Marecal, Patrick Jöckel, Luke D. Oman, Susan E. Strahan, Makoto Deushi, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Kohei Yoshida, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Yousuke Yamashita, Andreas Stenke, Laura Revell, Timofei Sukhodolov, Eugene Rozanov, Giovanni Pitari, Daniele Visioni, Kane A. Stone, Robyn Schofield, and Antara Banerjee
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 7217–7235, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7217-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7217-2018, 2018
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In this study we compare a few atmospheric transport properties among several numerical models that are used to study the influence of atmospheric chemistry on climate. We show that there are large differences among models in terms of the timescales that connect the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, where greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances are emitted, to the Southern Hemisphere. Our results may have important implications for how models represent atmospheric composition.
Valerio Ferracci, Ines Heimann, N. Luke Abraham, John A. Pyle, and Alexander T. Archibald
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 7109–7129, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7109-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7109-2018, 2018
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Hydroxyl radicals (OH) control the removal of species emitted in the atmosphere. Field campaigns reported a "missing" OH sink, not included in current atmospheric models. In this work a global model was used to establish the impact of additional OH sinks, based on both observations of the missing sink and newly discovered reactions of OH. Results show modest increases in global atmospheric lifetimes but pronounced regional effects on the abundance of some key species.
Simone Dietmüller, Roland Eichinger, Hella Garny, Thomas Birner, Harald Boenisch, Giovanni Pitari, Eva Mancini, Daniele Visioni, Andrea Stenke, Laura Revell, Eugene Rozanov, David A. Plummer, John Scinocca, Patrick Jöckel, Luke Oman, Makoto Deushi, Shibata Kiyotaka, Douglas E. Kinnison, Rolando Garcia, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Kane Adam Stone, and Robyn Schofield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6699–6720, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6699-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6699-2018, 2018
Fernando Iglesias-Suarez, Douglas E. Kinnison, Alexandru Rap, Amanda C. Maycock, Oliver Wild, and Paul J. Young
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6121–6139, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6121-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6121-2018, 2018
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This study explores future ozone radiative forcing (RF) and the relative contribution due to different drivers. Climate-induced ozone RF is largely the result of the interplay between lightning-produced ozone and enhanced ozone destruction in a warmer and wetter atmosphere. These results demonstrate the importance of stratospheric–tropospheric interactions and the stratosphere as a key region controlling a large fraction of the tropospheric ozone RF.
Sara Fenech, Ruth M. Doherty, Clare Heaviside, Sotiris Vardoulakis, Helen L. Macintyre, and Fiona M. O'Connor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 5765–5784, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5765-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5765-2018, 2018
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The impact of model horizontal resolution on simulated surface ozone and particulate matter less than 2.5 μm concentrations, and the associated health impacts over Europe, using a coarse (~ 140 km) and a finer (~ 50 km) resolution is examined. Results highlight a strong seasonal variation in simulated O3 and PM2.5 differences between the two resolutions and demonstrate that health impact assessments are sensitive to a change in model resolution by up to ±5 % of the total mortality across Europe.
Neal Butchart, James A. Anstey, Kevin Hamilton, Scott Osprey, Charles McLandress, Andrew C. Bushell, Yoshio Kawatani, Young-Ha Kim, Francois Lott, John Scinocca, Timothy N. Stockdale, Martin Andrews, Omar Bellprat, Peter Braesicke, Chiara Cagnazzo, Chih-Chieh Chen, Hye-Yeong Chun, Mikhail Dobrynin, Rolando R. Garcia, Javier Garcia-Serrano, Lesley J. Gray, Laura Holt, Tobias Kerzenmacher, Hiroaki Naoe, Holger Pohlmann, Jadwiga H. Richter, Adam A. Scaife, Verena Schenzinger, Federico Serva, Stefan Versick, Shingo Watanabe, Kohei Yoshida, and Seiji Yukimoto
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1009–1032, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1009-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1009-2018, 2018
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This paper documents the numerical experiments to be used in phase 1 of the Stratosphere–troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi), which was set up to improve the representation of the QBO and tropical stratospheric variability in global climate models.
Antara Banerjee, Amanda C. Maycock, and John A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2899–2911, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2899-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2899-2018, 2018
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This study quantifies the radiative forcing (RF) of future ozone changes. Under climate change, even the sign of the ozone RF can change depending on the greenhouse gas emissions scenario followed. Stratosphere–troposphere exchange plays an important role in driving ozone RF due to reductions in ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and increases in methane abundance. These could negate the ozone-derived climate benefits of air-quality controls on non-methane ozone precursor emissions.
Olaf Morgenstern, Kane A. Stone, Robyn Schofield, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Yousuke Yamashita, Douglas E. Kinnison, Rolando R. Garcia, Kengo Sudo, David A. Plummer, John Scinocca, Luke D. Oman, Michael E. Manyin, Guang Zeng, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Laura E. Revell, Giovanni Pitari, Eva Mancini, Glauco Di Genova, Daniele Visioni, Sandip S. Dhomse, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 1091–1114, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1091-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1091-2018, 2018
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We assess how ozone as simulated by a group of chemistry–climate models responds to variations in man-made climate gases and ozone-depleting substances. We find some agreement, particularly in the middle and upper stratosphere, but also considerable disagreement elsewhere. Such disagreement affects the reliability of future ozone projections based on these models, and also constitutes a source of uncertainty in climate projections using prescribed ozone derived from these simulations.
Fraser Dennison, Adrian McDonald, and Olaf Morgenstern
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 14075–14084, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14075-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14075-2017, 2017
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The Antarctic ozone is not centred directly over the pole. In this research we examine how the position and shape of the ozone hole changes using a chemistry–climate model. As ozone becomes increasingly depleted during the late 20th century the centre of the ozone hole moves toward the west and becomes more circular. As the ozone hole recovers over the course of the 21st century the ozone hole moves back towards the east.
James Keeble, Ewa M. Bednarz, Antara Banerjee, N. Luke Abraham, Neil R. P. Harris, Amanda C. Maycock, and John A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 13801–13818, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13801-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13801-2017, 2017
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In this study we explore the chemical and transport processes controlling ozone abundances in different altitude regions in the tropics for the present day and how these processes may change in the future in order to determine when total-column ozone values in the tropics will recover to pre-1980s values following the implementation of the Montreal Protocol and its subsequent amendments, which imposed bans on the use and emissions of CFCs.
Lucy S. Neal, Mohit Dalvi, Gerd Folberth, Rachel N. McInnes, Paul Agnew, Fiona M. O'Connor, Nicholas H. Savage, and Marie Tilbee
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3941–3962, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3941-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3941-2017, 2017
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This paper concerns aspects of downscaling global atmospheric composition and chemistry model predictions on the continental and UK national scale. A two-step nested model configuration was developed and used to simulate UK air quality for a 5-year period under present-day conditions. The results show some benefits associated with higher-resolution modelling for primary emitted pollutants, but also highlight the importance of consistency between the nested models.
Farahnaz Khosrawi, Oliver Kirner, Björn-Martin Sinnhuber, Sören Johansson, Michael Höpfner, Michelle L. Santee, Lucien Froidevaux, Jörn Ungermann, Roland Ruhnke, Wolfgang Woiwode, Hermann Oelhaf, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 12893–12910, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12893-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12893-2017, 2017
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The 2015/2016 Arctic winter was one of the coldest winters in recent years, allowing extensive PSC formation and chlorine activation. Model simulations of the 2015/2016 Arctic winter were performed with the atmospheric chemistry–climate model ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC). We find that ozone loss was quite strong but not as strong as in 2010/2011; denitrification and dehydration were so far the strongest observed in the Arctic stratosphere in at least the past 10 years.
Borgar Aamaas, Terje K. Berntsen, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Keith P. Shine, and William J. Collins
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 10795–10809, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10795-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10795-2017, 2017
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The climate impacts for emissions of different pollutants can be made comparable with weighting factors. This article estimates these weights based on temperature change for short-lived pollutants, such as methane and black carbon. Emissions from different seasons and regions are compared, for instance Europe and East Asia. The responses are calculated for four regions, where we see that the responses can be much higher in the Arctic than globally in some cases.
Guang Zeng, Olaf Morgenstern, Hisako Shiona, Alan J. Thomas, Richard R. Querel, and Sylvia E. Nichol
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 10495–10513, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10495-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10495-2017, 2017
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The long-term ozonesonde record from Lauder, New Zealand, which covers 1987 to 2014, shows a significant positive trend in lower tropospheric ozone, and a significant negative trend in the tropopause region. We conduct a statistical and chemistry–climate model analysis to identify the causes of these trends. We attribute these trends to anthropogenic influences and large-scale dynamical effects such as increasing tropopause height and an increase in stratosphere–troposphere exchange.
Chris Huntingford, Hui Yang, Anna Harper, Peter M. Cox, Nicola Gedney, Eleanor J. Burke, Jason A. Lowe, Garry Hayman, William J. Collins, Stephen M. Smith, and Edward Comyn-Platt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 617–626, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-617-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-617-2017, 2017
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Recent UNFCCC climate meetings have placed much emphasis on constraining global warming to remain below 2 °C. The 2015 Paris meeting went further and gave an aspiration to fulfil a 1.5 °C threshold. We provide a flexible set of algebraic global temperature profiles that stabilise to either target. This will potentially allow the climate research community to estimate local climatic implications for these temperature profiles, along with emissions trajectories to fulfil them.
Kevin M. Smalley, Andrew E. Dessler, Slimane Bekki, Makoto Deushi, Marion Marchand, Olaf Morgenstern, David A. Plummer, Kiyotaka Shibata, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 8031–8044, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8031-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8031-2017, 2017
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This paper explains a new way to evaluate simulated lower-stratospheric water vapor. We use a multivariate linear regression to predict 21st century lower stratospheric water vapor within 12 chemistry climate models using tropospheric warming, the Brewer–Dobson circulation, and the quasi-biennial oscillation as predictors. This methodology produce strong fits to simulated water vapor, and potentially represents a superior method to evaluate model trends in lower-stratospheric water vapor.
Michael Weimer, Jennifer Schröter, Johannes Eckstein, Konrad Deetz, Marco Neumaier, Garlich Fischbeck, Lu Hu, Dylan B. Millet, Daniel Rieger, Heike Vogel, Bernhard Vogel, Thomas Reddmann, Oliver Kirner, Roland Ruhnke, and Peter Braesicke
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2471–2494, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2471-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2471-2017, 2017
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In this paper, the recently developed module for trace gas emissions in the online coupled modelling framework ICON-ART for atmospheric chemistry is presented. Algorithms for offline and online calculation of the emissions are described. The module is validated with ground-based as well as airborne measurements of acetone. It is shown that the module performs well and allows the simulation of annual cycles of emission-driven trace gases.
Thomas Gasser, Glen P. Peters, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, William J. Collins, Drew T. Shindell, and Philippe Ciais
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 235–253, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-235-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-235-2017, 2017
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Emission metrics such as GWP or GTP are used to put non-CO2 species on a
CO2-equivalentscale. In the fifth IPCC report the metrics are inconsistent, as the climate–carbon feedback is included only for CO2 but not for non-CO2 species. Here, we simulate a new impulse response function for the feedback, and we use it to correct the metrics. For instance, 1 g of CH4 is equivalent to 31 g of CO2 (instead of 28 g) following the corrected GWP100 metric. It is 34 g if other factors are also updated.
Steven C. Hardiman, Neal Butchart, Fiona M. O'Connor, and Steven T. Rumbold
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1209–1232, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1209-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1209-2017, 2017
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HadGEM3-ES is improved, with respect to the previous model, in 10 of the 14 metrics considered. A significant bias in stratospheric water vapour is reduced, allowing more accurate simulation of water vapour and ozone concentrations in the stratosphere. Dynamics are found to influence the spatial structure of the simulated ozone hole and the area of polar stratospheric clouds. This research was carried out as part of involvement in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCM-I).
Sam S. Rabin, Joe R. Melton, Gitta Lasslop, Dominique Bachelet, Matthew Forrest, Stijn Hantson, Jed O. Kaplan, Fang Li, Stéphane Mangeon, Daniel S. Ward, Chao Yue, Vivek K. Arora, Thomas Hickler, Silvia Kloster, Wolfgang Knorr, Lars Nieradzik, Allan Spessa, Gerd A. Folberth, Tim Sheehan, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Douglas I. Kelley, I. Colin Prentice, Stephen Sitch, Sandy Harrison, and Almut Arneth
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1175–1197, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1175-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1175-2017, 2017
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Global vegetation models are important tools for understanding how the Earth system will change in the future, and fire is a critical process to include. A number of different methods have been developed to represent vegetation burning. This paper describes the protocol for the first systematic comparison of global fire models, which will allow the community to explore various drivers and evaluate what mechanisms are important for improving performance. It also includes equations for all models.
Johannes Eckstein, Roland Ruhnke, Andreas Zahn, Marco Neumaier, Ole Kirner, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 2775–2794, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2775-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2775-2017, 2017
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Data on atmospheric trace gases have been collected with instruments on-board a commercial airliner for more than 10 years in the CARIBIC project. We investigate which species in the dataset can be used for a representative climatology, by comparing data from the chemistry–climate model EMAC along the flight paths to a larger set of model data. We find that long-lived species are captured quite well by the CARIBIC sample while this is not the case for more variable, shorter-lived species.
Gunnar Myhre, Wenche Aas, Ribu Cherian, William Collins, Greg Faluvegi, Mark Flanner, Piers Forster, Øivind Hodnebrog, Zbigniew Klimont, Marianne T. Lund, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Cathrine Lund Myhre, Dirk Olivié, Michael Prather, Johannes Quaas, Bjørn H. Samset, Jordan L. Schnell, Michael Schulz, Drew Shindell, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Toshihiko Takemura, and Svetlana Tsyro
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 2709–2720, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2709-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2709-2017, 2017
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Over the past decades, the geographical distribution of emissions of substances that alter the atmospheric energy balance has changed due to economic growth and pollution regulations. Here, we show the resulting changes to aerosol and ozone abundances and their radiative forcing using recently updated emission data for the period 1990–2015, as simulated by seven global atmospheric composition models. The global mean radiative forcing is more strongly positive than reported in IPCC AR5.
Olaf Morgenstern, Michaela I. Hegglin, Eugene Rozanov, Fiona M. O'Connor, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alexander T. Archibald, Slimane Bekki, Neal Butchart, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Makoto Deushi, Sandip S. Dhomse, Rolando R. Garcia, Steven C. Hardiman, Larry W. Horowitz, Patrick Jöckel, Beatrice Josse, Douglas Kinnison, Meiyun Lin, Eva Mancini, Michael E. Manyin, Marion Marchand, Virginie Marécal, Martine Michou, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, Laura E. Revell, David Saint-Martin, Robyn Schofield, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Kengo Sudo, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Simone Tilmes, Yousuke Yamashita, Kohei Yoshida, and Guang Zeng
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 639–671, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-639-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-639-2017, 2017
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We present a review of the make-up of 20 models participating in the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). In comparison to earlier such activities, most of these models comprise a whole-atmosphere chemistry, and several of them include an interactive ocean module. This makes them suitable for studying the interactions of tropospheric air quality, stratospheric ozone, and climate. The paper lays the foundation for other studies using the CCMI simulations for scientific analysis.
William J. Collins, Jean-François Lamarque, Michael Schulz, Olivier Boucher, Veronika Eyring, Michaela I. Hegglin, Amanda Maycock, Gunnar Myhre, Michael Prather, Drew Shindell, and Steven J. Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 585–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-585-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-585-2017, 2017
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We have designed a set of climate model experiments called the Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). These are designed to quantify the climate and air quality impacts of aerosols and chemically reactive gases in the climate models that are used to simulate past and future climate. We hope that many climate modelling centres will choose to run these experiments to help understand the contribution of aerosols and chemistry to climate change.
Christopher P. Webber, Helen F. Dacre, William J. Collins, and Giacomo Masato
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 867–881, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-867-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-867-2017, 2017
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The influence of synoptic meteorology on UK PM10 concentration ([PM110]) is analysed. ERA-Interim reanalysis data are used to detect upper-tropospheric wave breaking that explains much of the UK winter synoptic meteorological variability. Wave breaking is shown to positively impact UK [PM10], with a persistent Ω block feature resulting in the greatest probability of exceeding a hazardous UK [PM10]. The meteorological dynamics of UK PM10 exceedances are better understood following this study.
Ulrike Langematz, Franziska Schmidt, Markus Kunze, Gregory E. Bodeker, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15619–15627, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15619-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15619-2016, 2016
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The extent of anthropogenically driven Antarctic ozone depletion prior to 1980 is examined using transient chemistry–climate model simulations from 1960 to 2000 with prescribed changes of ozone depleting substances in conjunction with observations. All models show a long-term, halogen-induced negative trend in Antarctic ozone from 1960 to 1980, ranging between 26 and 50 % of the total anthropogenic ozone depletion from 1960 to 2000. A stronger ozone decline of 56 % was estimated from observation.
Mingjin Tang, James Keeble, Paul J. Telford, Francis D. Pope, Peter Braesicke, Paul T. Griffiths, N. Luke Abraham, James McGregor, I. Matt Watson, R. Anthony Cox, John A. Pyle, and Markus Kalberer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15397–15412, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15397-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15397-2016, 2016
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We have investigated for the first time the heterogeneous hydrolysis of ClONO2 on TiO2 and SiO2 aerosol particles at room temperature and at different relative humidities (RHs), using an aerosol flow tube. The kinetic data reported in our current and previous studies have been included in the UKCA chemistry–climate model to assess the impact of TiO2 injection on stratospheric chemistry and stratospheric ozone in particular.
Nicola J. Warwick, Michelle L. Cain, Rebecca Fisher, James L. France, David Lowry, Sylvia E. Michel, Euan G. Nisbet, Bruce H. Vaughn, James W. C. White, and John A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 14891–14908, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14891-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14891-2016, 2016
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Methane is an important greenhouse gas. Methane emissions from Arctic wetlands are poorly quantified and may increase in a warming climate. Using a global atmospheric model and atmospheric observations of methane and its isotopologues, we find that isotopologue data are useful in constraining Arctic wetland emissions. Our results suggest that the seasonal cycle of these emissions may be incorrectly simulated in land process models, with implications for our understanding of future emissions.
Laura López-Comí, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Sarah L. Masters, Richard R. Querel, and Gerald E. Nedoluha
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 14599–14619, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14599-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14599-2016, 2016
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The hydroxyl radical (OH) is known for removing various pollutants from the atmosphere. Chemistry–climate models disagree on how much OH is found in the atmosphere. Here we use a single column model, set up for Lauder (New Zealand), to assess how OH responds to correcting model biases in long-lived constituents and temperature. We find some considerable sensitivity to correcting water vapour and ozone, with lesser contributions due to correcting methane, carbon monoxide, and temperature.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Amanda C. Maycock, N. Luke Abraham, Peter Braesicke, Olivier Dessens, and John A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 12159–12176, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12159-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12159-2016, 2016
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Future trends in springtime Arctic ozone, and its chemical dynamical and radiative drivers, are analysed using a 7-member ensemble of chemistry–climate model integrations, allowing for a detailed assessment of interannual variability. Despite the future long-term recovery of Arctic ozone, there is large interannual variability and episodic reductions in springtime Arctic column ozone. Halogen chemistry will become a smaller but non-negligible driver of Arctic ozone variability over the century.
Stéphane Mangeon, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Richard Gilham, Anna Harper, Stephen Sitch, and Gerd Folberth
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2685–2700, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2685-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2685-2016, 2016
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To understand the role of fires in the Earth system, global fire models are required. In this paper we describe the INteractive Fire and Emission algoRithm for Natural envirOnments (INFERNO). It follows a reduced complexity approach using mainly temperature, humidity and precipitation. INFERNO was found to perform well on a global scale and to maintain regional patterns over the 1997–2011 period of study, despite regional biases particularly linked to fuel consumption.
Raquel A. Silva, J. Jason West, Jean-François Lamarque, Drew T. Shindell, William J. Collins, Stig Dalsoren, Greg Faluvegi, Gerd Folberth, Larry W. Horowitz, Tatsuya Nagashima, Vaishali Naik, Steven T. Rumbold, Kengo Sudo, Toshihiko Takemura, Daniel Bergmann, Philip Cameron-Smith, Irene Cionni, Ruth M. Doherty, Veronika Eyring, Beatrice Josse, Ian A. MacKenzie, David Plummer, Mattia Righi, David S. Stevenson, Sarah Strode, Sophie Szopa, and Guang Zengast
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 9847–9862, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9847-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9847-2016, 2016
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Using ozone and PM2.5 concentrations from the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry-climate models for the four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs), together with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, we quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution in 2030, 2050 and 2100, relative to 2000 concentrations. We also estimate the global mortality burden of ozone and PM2.5 in 2000 and each future period.
Matthew Kasoar, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Jean-François Lamarque, Drew T. Shindell, Nicolas Bellouin, William J. Collins, Greg Faluvegi, and Kostas Tsigaridis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 9785–9804, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9785-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9785-2016, 2016
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Computer models are our primary tool to investigate how fossil-fuel emissions are affecting the climate. Here, we used three different climate models to see how they simulate the response to removing sulfur dioxide emissions from China. We found that the models disagreed substantially on how large the climate effect is from the emissions in this region. This range of outcomes is concerning if scientists or policy makers have to rely on any one model when performing their own studies.
R. Hossaini, P. K. Patra, A. A. Leeson, G. Krysztofiak, N. L. Abraham, S. J. Andrews, A. T. Archibald, J. Aschmann, E. L. Atlas, D. A. Belikov, H. Bönisch, L. J. Carpenter, S. Dhomse, M. Dorf, A. Engel, W. Feng, S. Fuhlbrügge, P. T. Griffiths, N. R. P. Harris, R. Hommel, T. Keber, K. Krüger, S. T. Lennartz, S. Maksyutov, H. Mantle, G. P. Mills, B. Miller, S. A. Montzka, F. Moore, M. A. Navarro, D. E. Oram, K. Pfeilsticker, J. A. Pyle, B. Quack, A. D. Robinson, E. Saikawa, A. Saiz-Lopez, S. Sala, B.-M. Sinnhuber, S. Taguchi, S. Tegtmeier, R. T. Lidster, C. Wilson, and F. Ziska
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 9163–9187, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9163-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9163-2016, 2016
Markus Kunze, Peter Braesicke, Ulrike Langematz, and Gabriele Stiller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 8695–8714, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8695-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8695-2016, 2016
Khalil Karami, Peter Braesicke, Miriam Sinnhuber, and Stefan Versick
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 8447–8460, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8447-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8447-2016, 2016
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We introduce a diagnostic tool to assess in a climatological framework the optimal propagation conditions for stationary planetary waves. Analyzing 50 winters using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data we demonstrate several problematic features of the refractive index of Rossby waves. We introduced the Rossby waves membership value function to calculate the optimal propagation conditions for Rossby waves. Sensitivity of our diagnostic tool to strong and weak vortex regimes are examined.
D. L. Finney, R. M. Doherty, O. Wild, and N. L. Abraham
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 7507–7522, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7507-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7507-2016, 2016
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Lightning is a source of nitric oxide (NO) and, through chemical reactions of NO, impacts ozone production. A new method for modelling global lightning markedly alters ozone concentration in the upper troposphere and frequency characteristics of ozone production compared to earlier treatments. Simulated lightning and ozone concentrations now better match observations. Reducing uncertainties associated with lightning NO is important for understanding atmospheric composition and radiative forcing.
Peer Johannes Nowack, Nathan Luke Abraham, Peter Braesicke, and John Adrian Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 4191–4203, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4191-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4191-2016, 2016
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Various forms of solar radiation management (SRM) have been proposed to counteract man-made climate change. However, all these countermeasures could have unintended side-effects. We add a novel perspective to this discussion by showing how atmospheric ozone changes under solar geoengineering could affect UV exposure and air pollution. This would have implications for human health and ecology. Atmospheric composition changes are therefore important to consider in the evaluation of any SRM scheme.
Antara Banerjee, Amanda C. Maycock, Alexander T. Archibald, N. Luke Abraham, Paul Telford, Peter Braesicke, and John A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 2727–2746, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2727-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2727-2016, 2016
Kane A. Stone, Olaf Morgenstern, David J. Karoly, Andrew R. Klekociuk, W. John French, N. Luke Abraham, and Robyn Schofield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 2401–2415, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2401-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2401-2016, 2016
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This paper describes the set-up and evaluation of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator – chemistry-climate model.
Emphasis is placed on the Antarctic ozone hole, which is very important considering its role modulating Southern Hemisphere surface climate. While the model simulates the global distribution of ozone well, there is a disparity in the vertical location of springtime ozone depletion over Antarctica, highlighting important areas for future development.
Emphasis is placed on the Antarctic ozone hole, which is very important considering its role modulating Southern Hemisphere surface climate. While the model simulates the global distribution of ozone well, there is a disparity in the vertical location of springtime ozone depletion over Antarctica, highlighting important areas for future development.
Zak Kipling, Philip Stier, Colin E. Johnson, Graham W. Mann, Nicolas Bellouin, Susanne E. Bauer, Tommi Bergman, Mian Chin, Thomas Diehl, Steven J. Ghan, Trond Iversen, Alf Kirkevåg, Harri Kokkola, Xiaohong Liu, Gan Luo, Twan van Noije, Kirsty J. Pringle, Knut von Salzen, Michael Schulz, Øyvind Seland, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Kai Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 2221–2241, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2221-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2221-2016, 2016
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The vertical distribution of atmospheric aerosol is an important factor in its effects on climate. In this study we use a sophisticated model of the many interacting processes affecting aerosol in the atmosphere to show that the vertical distribution is typically dominated by only a few of these processes. Constraining these physical processes may help to reduce the large differences between models. However, the important processes are not always the same for different types of aerosol.
F. Iglesias-Suarez, P. J. Young, and O. Wild
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 343–363, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-343-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-343-2016, 2016
F. Khosrawi, J. Urban, S. Lossow, G. Stiller, K. Weigel, P. Braesicke, M. C. Pitts, A. Rozanov, J. P. Burrows, and D. Murtagh
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 101–121, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-101-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-101-2016, 2016
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Our sensitivity studies based on air parcel trajectories confirm that Polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation is quite sensitive to water vapour and temperature changes. Considering water vapour time series from satellite measurements we do not find a consistent, significant trend in water vapour in the lower stratosphere during the past 15 years (2000–2014). Thus, the severe dentrification observed in 2010/2011 cannot be directly related to increases in stratospheric water vapour.
J. R. Pitt, M. Le Breton, G. Allen, C. J. Percival, M. W. Gallagher, S. J.-B. Bauguitte, S. J. O'Shea, J. B. A. Muller, M. S. Zahniser, J. Pyle, and P. I. Palmer
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-63-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-63-2016, 2016
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We present details of an Aerodyne quantum cascade laser absorption spectrometer (QCLAS) used to make airborne measurements of N2O and CH4, including its configuration for use on board an aircraft. Two different methods to correct for the influence of water vapour on the measurements are evaluated. We diagnose a sensitivity of the instrument to changes in pressure, introduce a new calibration procedure to account for this effect, and assess its performance.
M. R. Russo, M. J. Ashfold, N. R. P. Harris, and J. A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 14031–14040, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-14031-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-14031-2015, 2015
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We find a strong regional element to the uplift of CHBr3 from the ocean to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. The strongest uplift occurs when the largest emission and the most intense convection are co-located which is over the Maritime Continent in northern winter. Estimates of CHBr3 emissions based on aircraft measurements will be sensitive to where the available aircraft campaigns took place.
K. Karami, P. Braesicke, M. Kunze, U. Langematz, M. Sinnhuber, and S. Versick
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-15-33283-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-15-33283-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
A. Stohl, B. Aamaas, M. Amann, L. H. Baker, N. Bellouin, T. K. Berntsen, O. Boucher, R. Cherian, W. Collins, N. Daskalakis, M. Dusinska, S. Eckhardt, J. S. Fuglestvedt, M. Harju, C. Heyes, Ø. Hodnebrog, J. Hao, U. Im, M. Kanakidou, Z. Klimont, K. Kupiainen, K. S. Law, M. T. Lund, R. Maas, C. R. MacIntosh, G. Myhre, S. Myriokefalitakis, D. Olivié, J. Quaas, B. Quennehen, J.-C. Raut, S. T. Rumbold, B. H. Samset, M. Schulz, Ø. Seland, K. P. Shine, R. B. Skeie, S. Wang, K. E. Yttri, and T. Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10529–10566, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10529-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10529-2015, 2015
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This paper presents a summary of the findings of the ECLIPSE EU project. The project has investigated the climate and air quality impacts of short-lived climate pollutants (especially methane, ozone, aerosols) and has designed a global mitigation strategy that maximizes co-benefits between air quality and climate policy. Transient climate model simulations allowed quantifying the impacts on temperature (e.g., reduction in global warming by 0.22K for the decade 2041-2050) and precipitation.
J. G. Levine, A. R. MacKenzie, O. J. Squire, A. T. Archibald, P. T. Griffiths, N. L. Abraham, J. A. Pyle, D. E. Oram, G. Forster, J. F. Brito, J. D. Lee, J. R. Hopkins, A. C. Lewis, S. J. B. Bauguitte, C. F. Demarco, P. Artaxo, P. Messina, J. Lathière, D. A. Hauglustaine, E. House, C. N. Hewitt, and E. Nemitz
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-15-24251-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-15-24251-2015, 2015
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This study explores our ability to simulate atmospheric chemistry stemming from isoprene emissions—a reactive gas emitted from vegetation—in pristine and polluted regions of the Amazon basin. We explore how two contrasting models fare in reproducing recent airborne measurements in the region. Their differing treatments of transport and mixing are found to: profoundly affect their performance; and yield very different pictures of the exposure of the rainforest to harmful ozone concentrations.
K. P. Shine, R. P. Allan, W. J. Collins, and J. S. Fuglestvedt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 525–540, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-525-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-525-2015, 2015
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Emissions due to human activity impact on rainfall. This impact depends on the properties of the gases or particles that are emitted. This paper uses improved understanding of relevant processes to produce a new measure, called the Global Precipitation-change Potential, which allows a direct comparison of the effect of different emissions on global-mean rainfall. Carbon dioxide, in the years following its emission, is shown to be less effective than methane emissions at causing rainfall change.
S. T. Turnock, D. V. Spracklen, K. S. Carslaw, G. W. Mann, M. T. Woodhouse, P. M. Forster, J. Haywood, C. E. Johnson, M. Dalvi, N. Bellouin, and A. Sanchez-Lorenzo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 9477–9500, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9477-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9477-2015, 2015
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We evaluate HadGEM3-UKCA over Europe for the period 1960-2009 against observations of aerosol mass and number, aerosol optical depth (AOD) and surface solar radiation (SSR). The model underestimates aerosol mass and number but is less biased if compared to AOD and SSR. Observed trends in aerosols are well simulated by the model and necessary for reproducing the observed increase in SSR since 1990. European all-sky top of atmosphere aerosol radiative forcing increased by > 3 Wm-2 from 1970 to 2009.
S. Eckhardt, B. Quennehen, D. J. L. Olivié, T. K. Berntsen, R. Cherian, J. H. Christensen, W. Collins, S. Crepinsek, N. Daskalakis, M. Flanner, A. Herber, C. Heyes, Ø. Hodnebrog, L. Huang, M. Kanakidou, Z. Klimont, J. Langner, K. S. Law, M. T. Lund, R. Mahmood, A. Massling, S. Myriokefalitakis, I. E. Nielsen, J. K. Nøjgaard, J. Quaas, P. K. Quinn, J.-C. Raut, S. T. Rumbold, M. Schulz, S. Sharma, R. B. Skeie, H. Skov, T. Uttal, K. von Salzen, and A. Stohl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 9413–9433, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9413-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9413-2015, 2015
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The concentrations of sulfate, black carbon and other aerosols in the Arctic are characterized by high values in late winter and spring (so-called Arctic Haze) and low values in summer. Models have long been struggling to capture this seasonality. In this study, we evaluate sulfate and BC concentrations from different updated models and emissions against a comprehensive pan-Arctic measurement data set. We find that the models improved but still struggle to get the maximum concentrations.
L. H. Baker, W. J. Collins, D. J. L. Olivié, R. Cherian, Ø. Hodnebrog, G. Myhre, and J. Quaas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 8201–8216, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8201-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8201-2015, 2015
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We investigate the impact of removing land-based anthropogenic emissions of three aerosol species, using four fully-coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models. Removing SO2 emissions leads to warming globally, strongest in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), and an increase in NH precipitation. Organic and black carbon (OC, BC) have a weaker impact, and less certainty on the response; OC (BC) removal shows a weak overall warming (cooling), and both show small increases in precipitation globally.
H. M. Walker, D. Stone, T. Ingham, S. Vaughan, M. Cain, R. L. Jones, O. J. Kennedy, M. McLeod, B. Ouyang, J. Pyle, S. Bauguitte, B. Bandy, G. Forster, M. J. Evans, J. F. Hamilton, J. R. Hopkins, J. D. Lee, A. C. Lewis, R. T. Lidster, S. Punjabi, W. T. Morgan, and D. E. Heard
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 8179–8200, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8179-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8179-2015, 2015
G. Zeng, J. E. Williams, J. A. Fisher, L. K. Emmons, N. B. Jones, O. Morgenstern, J. Robinson, D. Smale, C. Paton-Walsh, and D. W. T. Griffith
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 7217–7245, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7217-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7217-2015, 2015
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We assess the impact of biogenic emissions on CO and HCHO in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), with simulations using different emission inventories. Differences in biogenic emissions result in large differences on modelled CO in the source and the remote regions. Substantial inter-model differences exist. Models significantly underestimate observed HCHO columns in the SH, suggesting missing sources in the models. Differences in the CO/OH/CH4 chemistry lead to differences in HCHO in remote regions.
O. J. Squire, A. T. Archibald, P. T. Griffiths, M. E. Jenkin, D. Smith, and J. A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5123–5143, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5123-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5123-2015, 2015
M. J. Ashfold, J. A. Pyle, A. D. Robinson, E. Meneguz, M. S. M. Nadzir, S. M. Phang, A. A. Samah, S. Ong, H. E. Ung, L. K. Peng, S. E. Yong, and N. R. P. Harris
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 3565–3573, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-3565-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-3565-2015, 2015
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We use observations and model calculations to show that "cold surges" occurring during Northern Hemisphere winter can rapidly transport East Asian pollution to equatorial Southeast Asia. As well as affecting atmospheric composition near the surface, we argue that strong convection can subsequently lift the polluted air masses to the tropical upper troposphere. This suggests a potentially important connection between midlatitude pollution sources and the lower stratosphere.
F. Pacifico, G. A. Folberth, S. Sitch, J. M. Haywood, L. V. Rizzo, F. F. Malavelle, and P. Artaxo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 2791–2804, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2791-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2791-2015, 2015
A. Orr, J. S. Hosking, L. Hoffmann, J. Keeble, S. M. Dean, H. K. Roscoe, N. L. Abraham, S. Vosper, and P. Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 1071–1086, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-1071-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-1071-2015, 2015
J. Keeble, P. Braesicke, N. L. Abraham, H. K. Roscoe, and J. A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 13705–13717, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13705-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13705-2014, 2014
G. D. Hayman, F. M. O'Connor, M. Dalvi, D. B. Clark, N. Gedney, C. Huntingford, C. Prigent, M. Buchwitz, O. Schneising, J. P. Burrows, C. Wilson, N. Richards, and M. Chipperfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 13257–13280, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13257-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13257-2014, 2014
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Globally, wetlands are a major source of methane, which is the second most important greenhouse gas. We find the JULES wetland methane scheme to perform well in general, although there is a tendency for it to overpredict emissions in the tropics and underpredict them in northern latitudes. Our study highlights novel uses of satellite data as a major tool to constrain land-atmosphere methane flux models in a warming world.
S. J. O'Shea, G. Allen, M. W. Gallagher, K. Bower, S. M. Illingworth, J. B. A. Muller, B. T. Jones, C. J. Percival, S. J-B. Bauguitte, M. Cain, N. Warwick, A. Quiquet, U. Skiba, J. Drewer, K. Dinsmore, E. G. Nisbet, D. Lowry, R. E. Fisher, J. L. France, M. Aurela, A. Lohila, G. Hayman, C. George, D. B. Clark, A. J. Manning, A. D. Friend, and J. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 13159–13174, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13159-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13159-2014, 2014
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This paper presents airborne measurements of greenhouse gases collected in the European Arctic. Regional scale flux estimates for the northern Scandinavian wetlands are derived. These fluxes are found to be in excellent agreement with coincident surface measurements within the aircraft's sampling domain. This has allowed a significant low bias to be identified in two commonly used process-based land surface models.
S. S. Dhomse, K. M. Emmerson, G. W. Mann, N. Bellouin, K. S. Carslaw, M. P. Chipperfield, R. Hommel, N. L. Abraham, P. Telford, P. Braesicke, M. Dalvi, C. E. Johnson, F. O'Connor, O. Morgenstern, J. A. Pyle, T. Deshler, J. M. Zawodny, and L. W. Thomason
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 11221–11246, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11221-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11221-2014, 2014
X. Yang, N. L. Abraham, A. T. Archibald, P. Braesicke, J. Keeble, P. J. Telford, N. J. Warwick, and J. A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 10431–10438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10431-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10431-2014, 2014
A. Banerjee, A. T. Archibald, A. C. Maycock, P. Telford, N. L. Abraham, X. Yang, P. Braesicke, and J. A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 9871–9881, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9871-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9871-2014, 2014
M. S. Mohd Nadzir, S. M. Phang, M. R. Abas, N. Abdul Rahman, A. Abu Samah, W. T. Sturges, D. E. Oram, G. P. Mills, Emma C. Leedham Elvidge, J. A. Pyle, N. R. P. Harris, A. D. Robinson, M. J. Ashfold, M. I. Mead, M. T. Latif, M. F. Khan, A. M. Amiruddin, N. Banan, and M. M. Hanafiah
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 8137–8148, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8137-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8137-2014, 2014
R. E. L. West, P. Stier, A. Jones, C. E. Johnson, G. W. Mann, N. Bellouin, D. G. Partridge, and Z. Kipling
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 6369–6393, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6369-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6369-2014, 2014
M. J. Tang, P. J. Telford, F. D. Pope, L. Rkiouak, N. L. Abraham, A. T. Archibald, P. Braesicke, J. A. Pyle, J. McGregor, I. M. Watson, R. A. Cox, and M. Kalberer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 6035–6048, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6035-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6035-2014, 2014
G. W. Mann, K. S. Carslaw, C. L. Reddington, K. J. Pringle, M. Schulz, A. Asmi, D. V. Spracklen, D. A. Ridley, M. T. Woodhouse, L. A. Lee, K. Zhang, S. J. Ghan, R. C. Easter, X. Liu, P. Stier, Y. H. Lee, P. J. Adams, H. Tost, J. Lelieveld, S. E. Bauer, K. Tsigaridis, T. P. C. van Noije, A. Strunk, E. Vignati, N. Bellouin, M. Dalvi, C. E. Johnson, T. Bergman, H. Kokkola, K. von Salzen, F. Yu, G. Luo, A. Petzold, J. Heintzenberg, A. Clarke, J. A. Ogren, J. Gras, U. Baltensperger, U. Kaminski, S. G. Jennings, C. D. O'Dowd, R. M. Harrison, D. C. S. Beddows, M. Kulmala, Y. Viisanen, V. Ulevicius, N. Mihalopoulos, V. Zdimal, M. Fiebig, H.-C. Hansson, E. Swietlicki, and J. S. Henzing
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 4679–4713, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4679-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4679-2014, 2014
O. J. Squire, A. T. Archibald, N. L. Abraham, D. J. Beerling, C. N. Hewitt, J. Lathière, R. C. Pike, P. J. Telford, and J. A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 1011–1024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1011-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1011-2014, 2014
Z. S. Stock, M. R. Russo, T. M. Butler, A. T. Archibald, M. G. Lawrence, P. J. Telford, N. L. Abraham, and J. A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 12215–12231, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-12215-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-12215-2013, 2013
A. M. Foley, D. Dalmonech, A. D. Friend, F. Aires, A. T. Archibald, P. Bartlein, L. Bopp, J. Chappellaz, P. Cox, N. R. Edwards, G. Feulner, P. Friedlingstein, S. P. Harrison, P. O. Hopcroft, C. D. Jones, J. Kolassa, J. G. Levine, I. C. Prentice, J. Pyle, N. Vázquez Riveiros, E. W. Wolff, and S. Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 10, 8305–8328, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8305-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8305-2013, 2013
P. Braesicke, J. Keeble, X. Yang, G. Stiller, S. Kellmann, N. L. Abraham, A. Archibald, P. Telford, and J. A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10677–10688, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10677-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10677-2013, 2013
N. J. Warwick, A. T. Archibald, K. Ashworth, J. Dorsey, P. M. Edwards, D. E. Heard, B. Langford, J. Lee, P. K. Misztal, L. K. Whalley, and J. A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 9183–9194, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9183-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9183-2013, 2013
Z. Kipling, P. Stier, J. P. Schwarz, A. E. Perring, J. R. Spackman, G. W. Mann, C. E. Johnson, and P. J. Telford
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 5969–5986, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5969-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5969-2013, 2013
B. Hassler, P. J. Young, R. W. Portmann, G. E. Bodeker, J. S. Daniel, K. H. Rosenlof, and S. Solomon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 5533–5550, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5533-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5533-2013, 2013
M. M. Fry, M. D. Schwarzkopf, Z. Adelman, V. Naik, W. J. Collins, and J. J. West
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 5381–5399, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5381-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5381-2013, 2013
V. Naik, A. Voulgarakis, A. M. Fiore, L. W. Horowitz, J.-F. Lamarque, M. Lin, M. J. Prather, P. J. Young, D. Bergmann, P. J. Cameron-Smith, I. Cionni, W. J. Collins, S. B. Dalsøren, R. Doherty, V. Eyring, G. Faluvegi, G. A. Folberth, B. Josse, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, T. P. C. van Noije, D. A. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, R. Skeie, D. T. Shindell, D. S. Stevenson, S. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, and G. Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 5277–5298, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5277-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5277-2013, 2013
K. W. Bowman, D. T. Shindell, H. M. Worden, J.F. Lamarque, P. J. Young, D. S. Stevenson, Z. Qu, M. de la Torre, D. Bergmann, P. J. Cameron-Smith, W. J. Collins, R. Doherty, S. B. Dalsøren, G. Faluvegi, G. Folberth, L. W. Horowitz, B. M. Josse, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, G. Myhre, T. Nagashima, V. Naik, D. A. Plummer, S. T. Rumbold, R. B. Skeie, S. A. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, A. Voulgarakis, G. Zeng, S. S. Kulawik, A. M. Aghedo, and J. R. Worden
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 4057–4072, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4057-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4057-2013, 2013
D. T. Shindell, J.-F. Lamarque, M. Schulz, M. Flanner, C. Jiao, M. Chin, P. J. Young, Y. H. Lee, L. Rotstayn, N. Mahowald, G. Milly, G. Faluvegi, Y. Balkanski, W. J. Collins, A. J. Conley, S. Dalsoren, R. Easter, S. Ghan, L. Horowitz, X. Liu, G. Myhre, T. Nagashima, V. Naik, S. T. Rumbold, R. Skeie, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, T. Takemura, A. Voulgarakis, J.-H. Yoon, and F. Lo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2939–2974, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2939-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2939-2013, 2013
N. Bellouin, G. W. Mann, M. T. Woodhouse, C. Johnson, K. S. Carslaw, and M. Dalvi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3027–3044, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3027-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3027-2013, 2013
D. S. Stevenson, P. J. Young, V. Naik, J.-F. Lamarque, D. T. Shindell, A. Voulgarakis, R. B. Skeie, S. B. Dalsoren, G. Myhre, T. K. Berntsen, G. A. Folberth, S. T. Rumbold, W. J. Collins, I. A. MacKenzie, R. M. Doherty, G. Zeng, T. P. C. van Noije, A. Strunk, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, D. A. Plummer, S. A. Strode, L. Horowitz, Y. H. Lee, S. Szopa, K. Sudo, T. Nagashima, B. Josse, I. Cionni, M. Righi, V. Eyring, A. Conley, K. W. Bowman, O. Wild, and A. Archibald
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3063–3085, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3063-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3063-2013, 2013
N. H. Savage, P. Agnew, L. S. Davis, C. Ordóñez, R. Thorpe, C. E. Johnson, F. M. O'Connor, and M. Dalvi
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 353–372, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-353-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-353-2013, 2013
Y. H. Lee, J.-F. Lamarque, M. G. Flanner, C. Jiao, D. T. Shindell, T. Berntsen, M. M. Bisiaux, J. Cao, W. J. Collins, M. Curran, R. Edwards, G. Faluvegi, S. Ghan, L. W. Horowitz, J. R. McConnell, J. Ming, G. Myhre, T. Nagashima, V. Naik, S. T. Rumbold, R. B. Skeie, K. Sudo, T. Takemura, F. Thevenon, B. Xu, and J.-H. Yoon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2607–2634, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2607-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2607-2013, 2013
W. J. Collins, M. M. Fry, H. Yu, J. S. Fuglestvedt, D. T. Shindell, and J. J. West
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2471–2485, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2471-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2471-2013, 2013
A. Voulgarakis, V. Naik, J.-F. Lamarque, D. T. Shindell, P. J. Young, M. J. Prather, O. Wild, R. D. Field, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, I. Cionni, W. J. Collins, S. B. Dalsøren, R. M. Doherty, V. Eyring, G. Faluvegi, G. A. Folberth, L. W. Horowitz, B. Josse, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, D. A. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, D. S. Stevenson, S. A. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, and G. Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2563–2587, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2563-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2563-2013, 2013
P. J. Young, A. T. Archibald, K. W. Bowman, J.-F. Lamarque, V. Naik, D. S. Stevenson, S. Tilmes, A. Voulgarakis, O. Wild, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, I. Cionni, W. J. Collins, S. B. Dalsøren, R. M. Doherty, V. Eyring, G. Faluvegi, L. W. Horowitz, B. Josse, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, D. A. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, R. B. Skeie, D. T. Shindell, S. A. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, and G. Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2063–2090, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2063-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2063-2013, 2013
G. E. Bodeker, B. Hassler, P. J. Young, and R. W. Portmann
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 31–43, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-31-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-31-2013, 2013
J.-F. Lamarque, D. T. Shindell, B. Josse, P. J. Young, I. Cionni, V. Eyring, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, W. J. Collins, R. Doherty, S. Dalsoren, G. Faluvegi, G. Folberth, S. J. Ghan, L. W. Horowitz, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, V. Naik, D. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, M. Schulz, R. B. Skeie, D. S. Stevenson, S. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, A. Voulgarakis, and G. Zeng
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 179–206, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-179-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-179-2013, 2013
P. J. Telford, N. L. Abraham, A. T. Archibald, P. Braesicke, M. Dalvi, O. Morgenstern, F. M. O'Connor, N. A. D. Richards, and J. A. Pyle
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 161–177, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-161-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-161-2013, 2013
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Sonya L. Fiddes, Marc D. Mallet, Alain Protat, Matthew T. Woodhouse, Simon P. Alexander, and Kalli Furtado
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2641–2662, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2641-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2641-2024, 2024
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In this study we present an evaluation that considers complex, non-linear systems in a holistic manner. This study uses XGBoost, a machine learning algorithm, to predict the simulated Southern Ocean shortwave radiation bias in the ACCESS model using cloud property biases as predictors. We then used a novel feature importance analysis to quantify the role that each cloud bias plays in predicting the radiative bias, laying the foundation for advanced Earth system model evaluation and development.
Gaurav Govardhan, Sachin D. Ghude, Rajesh Kumar, Sumit Sharma, Preeti Gunwani, Chinmay Jena, Prafull Yadav, Shubhangi Ingle, Sreyashi Debnath, Pooja Pawar, Prodip Acharja, Rajmal Jat, Gayatry Kalita, Rupal Ambulkar, Santosh Kulkarni, Akshara Kaginalkar, Vijay K. Soni, Ravi S. Nanjundiah, and Madhavan Rajeevan
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2617–2640, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2617-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2617-2024, 2024
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A newly developed air quality forecasting framework, Decision Support System (DSS), for air quality management in Delhi, India, provides source attribution with numerous emission reduction scenarios besides forecasts. DSS shows that during post-monsoon and winter seasons, Delhi and its neighboring districts contribute to 30 %–40 % each to pollution in Delhi. On average, a 40 % reduction in the emissions in Delhi and the surrounding districts would result in a 24 % reduction in Delhi's pollution.
Simon Rosanka, Holger Tost, Rolf Sander, Patrick Jöckel, Astrid Kerkweg, and Domenico Taraborrelli
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2597–2615, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2597-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2597-2024, 2024
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The capabilities of the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) are extended to account for non-equilibrium aqueous-phase chemistry in the representation of deliquescent aerosols. When applying the new development in a global simulation, we find that MESSy's bias in modelling routinely observed reduced inorganic aerosol mass concentrations, especially in the United States. Furthermore, the representation of fine-aerosol pH is particularly improved in the marine boundary layer.
Junyu Li, Yuxin Wang, Lilong Liu, Yibin Yao, Liangke Huang, and Feijuan Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2569–2581, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2569-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2569-2024, 2024
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In this study, we have developed a model (RF-PWV) to characterize precipitable water vapor (PWV) variation with altitude in the study area. RF-PWV can significantly reduce errors in vertical correction, enhance PWV fusion product accuracy, and provide insights into PWV vertical distribution, thereby contributing to climate research.
Rolf Sander
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2419–2425, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2419-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2419-2024, 2024
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The open-source software MEXPLORER 1.0.0 is presented here. The program can be used to analyze, reduce, and visualize complex chemical reaction mechanisms. The mathematics behind the tool is based on graph theory: chemical species are represented as vertices, and reactions as edges. MEXPLORER is a community model published under the GNU General Public License.
Leonardo Olivetti and Gabriele Messori
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2347–2358, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2347-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2347-2024, 2024
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In the last decades, weather forecasting up to 15 d into the future has been dominated by physics-based numerical models. Recently, deep learning models have challenged this paradigm. However, the latter models may struggle when forecasting weather extremes. In this article, we argue for deep learning models specifically designed to handle extreme events, and we propose a foundational framework to develop such models.
Stefan Rahimi, Lei Huang, Jesse Norris, Alex Hall, Naomi Goldenson, Will Krantz, Benjamin Bass, Chad Thackeray, Henry Lin, Di Chen, Eli Dennis, Ethan Collins, Zachary J. Lebo, Emily Slinskey, Sara Graves, Surabhi Biyani, Bowen Wang, Stephen Cropper, and the UCLA Center for Climate Science Team
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2265–2286, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2265-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2265-2024, 2024
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Here, we project future climate across the western United States through the end of the 21st century using a regional climate model, embedded within 16 latest-generation global climate models, to provide the community with a high-resolution physically based ensemble of climate data for use at local scales. Strengths and weaknesses of the data are frankly discussed as we overview the downscaled dataset.
Romain Pilon and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2247–2264, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2247-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2247-2024, 2024
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This paper introduces a new method for detecting atmospheric cloud bands to identify long convective cloud bands that extend from the tropics to the midlatitudes. The algorithm allows for easy use and enables researchers to study the life cycle and climatology of cloud bands and associated rainfall. This method provides insights into the large-scale processes involved in cloud band formation and their connections between different regions, as well as differences across ocean basins.
Salvatore Larosa, Domenico Cimini, Donatello Gallucci, Saverio Teodosio Nilo, and Filomena Romano
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2053–2076, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2053-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2053-2024, 2024
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PyRTlib is an attractive educational tool because it provides a flexible and user-friendly way to broadly simulate how electromagnetic radiation travels through the atmosphere as it interacts with atmospheric constituents (such as gases, aerosols, and hydrometeors). PyRTlib is a so-called radiative transfer model; these are commonly used to simulate and understand remote sensing observations from ground-based, airborne, or satellite instruments.
Joffrey Dumont Le Brazidec, Pierre Vanderbecken, Alban Farchi, Grégoire Broquet, Gerrit Kuhlmann, and Marc Bocquet
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1995–2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1995-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1995-2024, 2024
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Our research presents an innovative approach to estimating power plant CO2 emissions from satellite images of the corresponding plumes such as those from the forthcoming CO2M satellite constellation. The exploitation of these images is challenging due to noise and meteorological uncertainties. To overcome these obstacles, we use a deep learning neural network trained on simulated CO2 images. Our method outperforms alternatives, providing a positive perspective for the analysis of CO2M images.
Kyoung-Min Kim, Si-Wan Kim, Seunghwan Seo, Donald R. Blake, Seogju Cho, James H. Crawford, Louisa K. Emmons, Alan Fried, Jay R. Herman, Jinkyu Hong, Jinsang Jung, Gabriele G. Pfister, Andrew J. Weinheimer, Jung-Hun Woo, and Qiang Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1931–1955, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1931-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1931-2024, 2024
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Three emission inventories were evaluated for East Asia using data acquired during a field campaign in 2016. The inventories successfully reproduced the daily variations of ozone and nitrogen dioxide. However, the spatial distributions of model ozone did not fully agree with the observations. Additionally, all simulations underestimated carbon monoxide and volatile organic compound (VOC) levels. Increasing VOC emissions over South Korea resulted in improved ozone simulations.
Sanam Noreen Vardag and Robert Maiwald
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1885–1902, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1885-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1885-2024, 2024
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We use the atmospheric transport model GRAMM/GRAL in a Bayesian inversion to estimate urban CO2 emissions on a neighbourhood scale. We analyse the effect of varying number, precision and location of CO2 sensors for CO2 flux estimation. We further test the inclusion of co-emitted species and correlation in the inversion. The study showcases the general usefulness of GRAMM/GRAL in measurement network design.
Abhishek Savita, Joakim Kjellsson, Robin Pilch Kedzierski, Mojib Latif, Tabea Rahm, Sebastian Wahl, and Wonsun Park
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1813–1829, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1813-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1813-2024, 2024
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The OpenIFS model is used to examine the impact of horizontal resolutions (HR) and model time steps. We find that the surface wind biases over the oceans, in particular the Southern Ocean, are sensitive to the model time step and HR, with the HR having the smallest biases. When using a coarse-resolution model with a shorter time step, a similar improvement is also found. Climate biases can be reduced in the OpenIFS model at a cheaper cost by reducing the time step rather than increasing the HR.
Ferdinand Briegel, Jonas Wehrle, Dirk Schindler, and Andreas Christen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1667–1688, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1667-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1667-2024, 2024
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We present a new approach to model heat stress in cities using artificial intelligence (AI). We show that the AI model is fast in terms of prediction but accurate when evaluated with measurements. The fast-predictive AI model enables several new potential applications, including heat stress prediction and warning; downscaling of potential future climates; evaluation of adaptation effectiveness; and, more fundamentally, development of guidelines to support urban planning and policymaking.
Hauke Schmidt, Sebastian Rast, Jiawei Bao, Amrit Cassim, Shih-Wei Fang, Diego Jimenez-de la Cuesta, Paul Keil, Lukas Kluft, Clarissa Kroll, Theresa Lang, Ulrike Niemeier, Andrea Schneidereit, Andrew I. L. Williams, and Bjorn Stevens
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1563–1584, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1563-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1563-2024, 2024
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A recent development in numerical simulations of the global atmosphere is the increase in horizontal resolution to grid spacings of a few kilometers. However, the vertical grid spacing of these models has not been reduced at the same rate as the horizontal grid spacing. Here, we assess the effects of much finer vertical grid spacings, in particular the impacts on cloud quantities and the atmospheric energy balance.
Tao Zheng, Sha Feng, Jeffrey Steward, Xiaoxu Tian, David Baker, and Martin Baxter
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1543–1562, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1543-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1543-2024, 2024
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The tangent linear and adjoint models have been successfully implemented in the MPAS-CO2 system, which has undergone rigorous accuracy testing. This development lays the groundwork for a global carbon flux data assimilation system, which offers the flexibility of high-resolution focus on specific areas, while maintaining a coarser resolution elsewhere. This approach significantly reduces computational costs and is thus perfectly suited for future CO2 geostationery and imager satellites.
Kelvin H. Bates, Mathew J. Evans, Barron H. Henderson, and Daniel J. Jacob
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1511–1524, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1511-2024, 2024
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Accurate representation of rates and products of chemical reactions in atmospheric models is crucial for simulating concentrations of pollutants and climate forcers. We update the widely used GEOS-Chem atmospheric chemistry model with reaction parameters from recent compilations of experimental data and demonstrate the implications for key atmospheric chemical species. The updates decrease tropospheric CO mixing ratios and increase stratospheric nitrogen oxide mixing ratios, among other changes.
François Roberge, Alejandro Di Luca, René Laprise, Philippe Lucas-Picher, and Julie Thériault
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1497–1510, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1497-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1497-2024, 2024
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Our study addresses a challenge in dynamical downscaling using regional climate models, focusing on the lack of small-scale features near the boundaries. We introduce a method to identify this “spatial spin-up” in precipitation simulations. Results show spin-up distances up to 300 km, varying by season and driving variable. Double nesting with comprehensive variables (e.g. microphysical variables) offers advantages. Findings will help optimize simulations for better climate projections.
Eloisa Raluy-López, Juan Pedro Montávez, and Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1469–1495, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1469-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1469-2024, 2024
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Atmospheric rivers (ARs) represent a significant source of water but are also related to extreme precipitation events. Here, we present a new regional-scale AR identification algorithm and apply it to three simulations that include aerosol interactions at different levels. The results show that aerosols modify the intensity and trajectory of ARs and redistribute the AR-related precipitation. Thus, the correct inclusion of aerosol effects is important in the simulation of AR behavior.
Sofía Gómez Maqueo Anaya, Dietrich Althausen, Matthias Faust, Holger Baars, Bernd Heinold, Julian Hofer, Ina Tegen, Albert Ansmann, Ronny Engelmann, Annett Skupin, Birgit Heese, and Kerstin Schepanski
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1271–1295, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1271-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1271-2024, 2024
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Mineral dust aerosol particles vary greatly in their composition depending on source region, which leads to different physicochemical properties. Most atmosphere–aerosol models consider mineral dust aerosols to be compositionally homogeneous, which ultimately increases model uncertainty. Here, we present an approach to explicitly consider the heterogeneity of the mineralogical composition for simulations of the Saharan atmospheric dust cycle with regard to dust transport towards the Atlantic.
Alexandros Milousis, Alexandra P. Tsimpidi, Holger Tost, Spyros N. Pandis, Athanasios Nenes, Astrid Kiendler-Scharr, and Vlassis A. Karydis
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1111–1131, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1111-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1111-2024, 2024
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This study aims to evaluate the newly developed ISORROPIA-lite aerosol thermodynamic module within the EMAC model and explore discrepancies in global atmospheric simulations of aerosol composition and acidity by utilizing different aerosol phase states. Even though local differences were found in regions where the RH ranged from 20 % to 60 %, on a global scale the results are similar. Therefore, ISORROPIA-lite can be a reliable and computationally effective alternative to ISORROPIA II in EMAC.
Marie-Adèle Magnaldo, Quentin Libois, Sébastien Riette, and Christine Lac
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1091–1109, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1091-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1091-2024, 2024
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With the worldwide development of the solar energy sector, the need for reliable solar radiation forecasts has significantly increased. However, meteorological models that predict, among others things, solar radiation have errors. Therefore, we wanted to know in which situtaions these errors are most significant. We found that errors mostly occur in cloudy situations, and different errors were highlighted depending on the cloud altitude. Several potential sources of errors were identified.
Dongqi Lin, Jiawei Zhang, Basit Khan, Marwan Katurji, and Laura E. Revell
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 815–845, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-815-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-815-2024, 2024
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GEO4PALM is an open-source tool to generate static input for the Parallelized Large-Eddy Simulation (PALM) model system. Geospatial static input is essential for realistic PALM simulations. However, existing tools fail to generate PALM's geospatial static input for most regions. GEO4PALM is compatible with diverse geospatial data sources and provides access to free data sets. In addition, this paper presents two application examples, which show successful PALM simulations using GEO4PALM.
Piotr Zmijewski, Piotr Dziekan, and Hanna Pawlowska
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 759–780, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-759-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-759-2024, 2024
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In computer simulations of clouds it is necessary to model the myriad of droplets that constitute a cloud. A popular method for this is to use so-called super-droplets (SDs), each representing many real droplets. It has remained a challenge to model collisions of SDs. We study how precipitation in a cumulus cloud depends on the number of SDs. Surprisingly, we do not find convergence in mean precipitation even for numbers of SDs much larger than typically used in simulations.
Roya Ghahreman, Wanmin Gong, Paul A. Makar, Alexandru Lupu, Amanda Cole, Kulbir Banwait, Colin Lee, and Ayodeji Akingunola
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 685–707, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-685-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-685-2024, 2024
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The article explores the impact of different representations of below-cloud scavenging on model biases. A new scavenging scheme and precipitation-phase partitioning improve the model's performance, with better SO42- scavenging and wet deposition of NO3- and NH4+.
Daisuke Goto, Tatsuya Seiki, Kentaroh Suzuki, Hisashi Yashiro, and Toshihiko Takemura
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 651–684, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-651-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-651-2024, 2024
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Global climate models with coarse grid sizes include uncertainties about the processes in aerosol–cloud–precipitation interactions. To reduce these uncertainties, here we performed numerical simulations using a new version of our global aerosol transport model with a finer grid size over a longer period than in our previous study. As a result, we found that the cloud microphysics module influences the aerosol distributions through both aerosol wet deposition and aerosol–cloud interactions.
Alexander de Meij, Cornelis Cuvelier, Philippe Thunis, Enrico Pisoni, and Bertrand Bessagnet
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 587–606, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-587-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-587-2024, 2024
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In our study the robustness of the model responses to emission reductions in the EU is assessed when the emission data are changed. Our findings are particularly important to better understand the uncertainties associated to the emission inventories and how these uncertainties impact the level of accuracy of the resulting air quality modelling, which is a key for designing air quality plans. Also crucial is the choice of indicator to avoid misleading interpretations of the results.
Haiqin Li, Georg A. Grell, Ravan Ahmadov, Li Zhang, Shan Sun, Jordan Schnell, and Ning Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 607–619, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-607-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-607-2024, 2024
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We developed a simple and realistic method to provide aerosol emissions for aerosol-aware microphysics in a numerical weather forecast model. The cloud-radiation differences between the experimental (EXP) and control (CTL) experiments responded to the aerosol differences. The strong positive precipitation biases over North America and Europe from the CTL run were significantly reduced in the EXP run. This study shows that a realistic representation of aerosol emissions should be considered.
Giancarlo Ciarelli, Sara Tahvonen, Arineh Cholakian, Manuel Bettineschi, Bruno Vitali, Tuukka Petäjä, and Federico Bianchi
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 545–565, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-545-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-545-2024, 2024
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The terrestrial ecosystem releases large quantities of biogenic gases in the Earth's Atmosphere. These gases can effectively be converted into so-called biogenic aerosol particles and, eventually, affect the Earth's climate. Climate prediction varies greatly depending on how these processes are represented in model simulations. In this study, we present a detailed model evaluation analysis aimed at understanding the main source of uncertainty in predicting the formation of biogenic aerosols.
Jiachen Liu, Eric Chen, and Shannon L. Capps
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 567–585, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-567-2024, 2024
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Air pollution harms human life and ecosystems, but its sources are complex. Scientists and policy makers use air pollution models to advance knowledge and inform control strategies. We implemented a recently developed numeral system to relate any set of model inputs, like pollutant emissions from a given activity, to all model outputs, like concentrations of pollutants harming human health. This approach will be straightforward to update when scientists discover new processes in the atmosphere.
Kun Zheng, Qiya Tan, Huihua Ruan, Jinbiao Zhang, Cong Luo, Siyu Tang, Yunlei Yi, Yugang Tian, and Jianmei Cheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 399–413, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-399-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-399-2024, 2024
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Radar echo extrapolation is the common method in precipitation nowcasting. Deep learning has potential in extrapolation. However, the existing models have low prediction accuracy for heavy rainfall. In this study, the prediction accuracy is improved by suppressing the blurring effect of rain distribution and reducing the negative bias. The results show that our model has better performance, which is useful for urban operation and flood prevention.
Li Pan, Partha S. Bhattacharjee, Li Zhang, Raffaele Montuoro, Barry Baker, Jeff McQueen, Georg A. Grell, Stuart A. McKeen, Shobha Kondragunta, Xiaoyang Zhang, Gregory J. Frost, Fanglin Yang, and Ivanka Stajner
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 431–447, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-431-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-431-2024, 2024
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A GEFS-Aerosols simulation was conducted from 1 September 2019 to 30 September 2020 to evaluate the model performance of GEFS-Aerosols. The purpose of this study was to understand how aerosol chemical and physical processes affect ambient aerosol concentrations by placing aerosol wet deposition, dry deposition, reactions, gravitational deposition, and emissions into the aerosol mass balance equation.
Sean Raffuse, Susan O'Neill, and Rebecca Schmidt
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 381–397, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-381-2024, 2024
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Large wildfires are increasing throughout the western United States, and wildfire smoke is hazardous to public health. We developed a suite of tools called rapidfire for estimating particle pollution during wildfires using routinely available data sets. rapidfire uses official air monitoring, satellite data, meteorology, smoke modeling, and low-cost sensors. Estimates from rapidfire compare well with ground monitors and are being used in public health studies across California.
Manuel F. Schmid, Marco G. Giometto, Gregory A. Lawrence, and Marc B. Parlange
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 321–333, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-321-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-321-2024, 2024
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Turbulence-resolving flow models have strict performance requirements, as simulations often run for weeks using hundreds of processes. Many flow scenarios also require the flexibility to modify physical and numerical models for problem-specific requirements. With a new code written in Julia we hope to make such adaptations easier without compromising on performance. In this paper we discuss the modeling approach and present validation and performance results.
Yafang Guo, Chayan Roychoudhury, Mohammad Amin Mirrezaei, Rajesh Kumar, Armin Sorooshian, and Avelino F. Arellano
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-234, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-234, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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This research focuses on surface ozone (O3) pollution in Arizona, a historically air quality-challenged arid/semi-arid region in the US. The unique characteristics of semi-arid/arid regions, e.g., intense heat, minimal moisture, persistent desert shrubs, play a vital role in comprehending O3 exceedances. Using the WRF-Chem model, we analyzed O3 levels in the pre-monsoon month, revealing the model's skill in capturing diurnal and MDA8 O3 levels.
Marie-Noëlle Bouin, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Sylvie Malardel, Aurore Voldoire, and César Sauvage
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 117–141, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-117-2024, 2024
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In numerical models, the turbulent exchanges of heat and momentum at the air–sea interface are not represented explicitly but with parameterisations depending on the surface parameters. A new parameterisation of turbulent fluxes (WASP) has been implemented in the surface model SURFEX v8.1 and validated on four case studies. It combines a close fit to observations including cyclonic winds, a dependency on the wave growth rate, and the possibility of being used in atmosphere–wave coupled models.
Michal Belda, Nina Benešová, Jaroslav Resler, Peter Huszár, Ondřej Vlček, Pavel Krč, Jan Karlický, Pavel Juruš, and Kryštof Eben
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2740, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2740, 2024
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For modeling atmospheric chemistry, it is necessary to provide data on emissions of pollutants. These can come from various sources and in various forms and preprocessing of the data to be ingestible by chemistry models can be quite challenging. We developed the FUME processor to use a database layer that internally transforms all input data into a rigid structure facilitating further processing to allow emission processing from continental to street scale.
Zehua Bai, Qizhong Wu, Kai Cao, Yiming Sun, and Huaqiong Cheng
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2962, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2962, 2024
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There are relatively limited researches on the application of scientific computing on RISC CPU platforms. The MIPS architecture CPUs, a type of RISC CPU, have distinct advantages in energy efficiency and scalability. In this study, the air quality modeling system can run stably on MIPS CPU platform, and the experiment results verify the stability of scientific computing on the platform. The work provides a technical foundation for the scientific application based on MIPS CPU platforms.
Lukas Fehr, Chris McLinden, Debora Griffin, Daniel Zawada, Doug Degenstein, and Adam Bourassa
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7491–7507, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7491-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7491-2023, 2023
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This work highlights upgrades to SASKTRAN, a model that simulates sunlight interacting with the atmosphere to help measure trace gases. The upgrades were verified by detailed comparisons between different numerical methods. A case study was performed using SASKTRAN’s multidimensional capabilities, which found that ignoring horizontal variation in the atmosphere (a common practice in the field) can introduce non-negligible errors where there is snow or high pollution.
Sylvain Mailler, Romain Pennel, Laurent Menut, and Arineh Cholakian
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7509–7526, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7509-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7509-2023, 2023
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We show that a new advection scheme named PPM + W (piecewise parabolic method + Walcek) offers geoscientific modellers an alternative, high-performance scheme designed for Cartesian-grid advection, with improved performance over the classical PPM scheme. The computational cost of PPM + W is not higher than that of PPM. With improved accuracy and controlled computational cost, this new scheme may find applications in chemistry-transport models, ocean models or atmospheric circulation models.
David R. Shaw, Toby J. Carter, Helen L. Davies, Ellen Harding-Smith, Elliott C. Crocker, Georgia Beel, Zixu Wang, and Nicola Carslaw
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7411–7431, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7411-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7411-2023, 2023
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Exposure to air pollution is one of the greatest risks to human health, and it is indoors, where we spend upwards of 90 % of our time, that our exposure is greatest. The INdoor CHEMical model in Python (INCHEM-Py) is a new, community-led box model that tracks the evolution and fate of atmospheric chemical pollutants indoors. We have shown the processes simulated by INCHEM-Py, its ability to model experimental data and how it may be used to develop further understanding of indoor air chemistry.
Willem E. van Caspel, David Simpson, Jan Eiof Jonson, Anna M. K. Benedictow, Yao Ge, Alcide di Sarra, Giandomenico Pace, Massimo Vieno, Hannah L. Walker, and Mathew R. Heal
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7433–7459, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7433-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7433-2023, 2023
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Radiation coming from the sun is essential to atmospheric chemistry, driving the breakup, or photodissociation, of atmospheric molecules. This in turn affects the chemical composition and reactivity of the atmosphere. The representation of photodissociation effects is therefore essential in atmospheric chemistry modeling. One such model is the EMEP MSC-W model, for which a new way of calculating the photodissociation rates is tested and evaluated in this paper.
Jungmin Lee, Walter M. Hannah, and David C. Bader
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7275–7287, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7275-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7275-2023, 2023
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Representing accurate land–atmosphere interaction processes is overlooked in weather and climate models. In this study, we propose three methods to represent land–atmosphere coupling in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) with the Multi-scale Modeling Framework (MMF) approach. In this study, we introduce spatially homogeneous and heterogeneous land–atmosphere interaction processes within the cloud-resolving model domain. Our 5-year simulations reveal only small differences.
Laurent Menut, Bertrand Bessagnet, Arineh Cholakian, Guillaume Siour, Sylvain Mailler, and Romain Pennel
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-209, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-209, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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This study is about the modelling of the atmospheric composition in Europe and during the summer 2022, when massive wildfires were observed. It is a sensitivity study dedicated to the relative impact of two modelling processes able to modify the meteorology used for the calculation of the atmospheric chemistry and transport of pollutants.
Rohith Muraleedharan Thundathil, Florian Zus, Galina Dick, and Jens Wickert
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-202, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-202, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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Global Navigation Satellite Systems provide moisture observations through its densely distributed ground station network. In this research, we assimilated a new type of observation called tropospheric gradient observations, which was never incorporated into a weather model. Here, we have developed a forward operator for gradient observations and performed impact studies. Promising improvements were observed in the humidity fields of the model in the assimilation study.
Liangke Huang, Shengwei Lan, Ge Zhu, Fade Chen, Junyu Li, and Lilong Liu
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7223–7235, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7223-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7223-2023, 2023
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The existing zenith tropospheric delay (ZTD) models have limitations such as using a single fitting function, neglecting daily cycle variations, and relying on only one resolution grid data point for modeling. This model considers the daily cycle variation and latitude factor of ZTD, using the sliding window algorithm based on ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis data. The ZTD data from 545 radiosonde stations and MERRA-2 atmospheric reanalysis data are used to validate the accuracy of the GGZTD-P model.
Jonathan J. Guerrette, Zhiquan Liu, Chris Snyder, Byoung-Joo Jung, Craig S. Schwartz, Junmei Ban, Steven Vahl, Yali Wu, Ivette Hernández Baños, Yonggang G. Yu, Soyoung Ha, Yannick Trémolet, Thomas Auligné, Clementine Gas, Benjamin Ménétrier, Anna Shlyaeva, Mark Miesch, Stephen Herbener, Emily Liu, Daniel Holdaway, and Benjamin T. Johnson
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7123–7142, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7123-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7123-2023, 2023
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We demonstrate an ensemble of variational data assimilations (EDA) with the Model for Prediction Across Scales and the Joint Effort for Data assimilation Integration (JEDI) software framework. When compared to 20-member ensemble forecasts from operational initial conditions, those from 80-member EDA-generated initial conditions improve flow-dependent error covariances and subsequent 10 d forecasts. These experiments are repeatable for any atmospheric model with a JEDI interface.
Minjie Zheng, Hongyu Liu, Florian Adolphi, Raimund Muscheler, Zhengyao Lu, Mousong Wu, and Nønne L. Prisle
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7037–7057, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7037-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7037-2023, 2023
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The radionuclides 7Be and 10Be are useful tracers for atmospheric transport studies. Here we use the GEOS-Chem to simulate 7Be and 10Be with different production rates: the default production rate in GEOS-Chem and two from the state-of-the-art beryllium production model. We demonstrate that reduced uncertainties in the production rates can enhance the utility of 7Be and 10Be as tracers for evaluating transport and scavenging processes in global models.
Wenxing Jia, Xiaoye Zhang, Hong Wang, Yaqiang Wang, Deying Wang, Junting Zhong, Wenjie Zhang, Lei Zhang, Lifeng Guo, Yadong Lei, Jizhi Wang, Yuanqin Yang, and Yi Lin
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6833–6856, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6833-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6833-2023, 2023
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In addition to the dominant role of the PBL scheme on the results of the meteorological field, many factors in the model are influenced by large uncertainties. This study focuses on the uncertainties that influence numerical simulation results (including horizontal resolution, vertical resolution, near-surface scheme, initial and boundary conditions, underlying surface update, and update of model version), hoping to provide a reference for scholars conducting research on the model.
Owen K. Hughes and Christiane Jablonowski
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6805–6831, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6805-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6805-2023, 2023
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Atmospheric models benefit from idealized tests that assess their accuracy in a simpler simulation. A new test with artificial mountains is developed for models on a spherical earth. The mountains trigger the development of both planetary-scale and small-scale waves. These can be analyzed in dry or moist environments, with a simple rainfall mechanism. Four atmospheric models are intercompared. This sheds light on the pros and cons of the model design and the impact of mountains on the flow.
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