Multi-annual modes in the 20th century temperature variability in reanalyses and CMIP5 models

Järvinen, Heikki; Seitola, Teija; Silén, Johan; Räisänen, Jouni

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4097-2016

Articles | Volume 9, issue 11

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4097-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4097-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 9, issue 11

Model evaluation paper

| Highlight paper

|

17 Nov 2016

Model evaluation paper | Highlight paper |

| 17 Nov 2016

Multi-annual modes in the 20th century temperature variability in reanalyses and CMIP5 models

Heikki Järvinen, Teija Seitola, Johan Silén, and Jouni Räisänen

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4097-2016-supplement

Data sets

20CR: The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project G. P. Compo, J. S. Whitaker, P. D. Sardeshmukh, N. Matsui, R. J. Allan, X. Yin, B. E. Gleason, R. S. Vose, G. Rutledge, P. Bessemoulin, S. Brönnimann, M. Brunet, R. I. Crouthamel, A. N. Grant, P. Y. Groisman, P. D. Jones, M. Kruk, A. C. Kruger, G. J. Marshall, M. Maugeri, H. Y. Mok, Ø. Nordli, T. F. Ross, R. M. Trigo, X. L. Wang, S. D. Woodruff, and S. J. Worley https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.776

ERA-20C: ECMWF's atmospheric reanalysis of the 20th century P. Poli, H. Hersbach, D. Tan, D. Dee, J. N. Thepaut, A. Simmons, C. Peubey, P. Laloyaux, T. Komori, P. Berrisford, R. Dragani, Y. Trémolet, E. V. Hólm, M. Bonavita, L. Isaksen, and M. Fisher http://www.ecmwf.int/en/research/climate-reanalysis/era-20c

An Overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design K. E. Taylor, R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1

Video supplement

Animations of the 3–4 year mode for all data sets H. Järvinen, T. Seitola, J. Silén, and J. Räisänen https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCu1zJdwJfLaXvfvTqsKCLHw

Short summary

This study compares the 20th century multi-annual climate variability modes in reanalysis data sets (ERA-20C and 20CR) and 12 climate model simulations using the randomised multi-channel singular spectrum analysis. The reanalysis data sets are remarkably similar on all timescales, except that the spectral power in ERA-20C is systematically slightly higher than in 20CR. None of the climate models closely reproduce all aspects of the reanalysis spectra, although many aspects are represented well.