Journal cover Journal topic
Geoscientific Model Development An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Journal topic

Journal metrics

Journal metrics

  • IF value: 4.252 IF 4.252
  • IF 5-year value: 4.890 IF 5-year 4.890
  • CiteScore value: 4.49 CiteScore 4.49
  • SNIP value: 1.539 SNIP 1.539
  • SJR value: 2.404 SJR 2.404
  • IPP value: 4.28 IPP 4.28
  • h5-index value: 40 h5-index 40
  • Scimago H index value: 51 Scimago H index 51
Volume 11, issue 6
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2333-2351, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2333-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2333-2351, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2333-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Model evaluation paper 19 Jun 2018

Model evaluation paper | 19 Jun 2018

The implementation of NEMS GFS Aerosol Component (NGAC) Version 2.0 for global multispecies forecasting at NOAA/NCEP – Part 2: Evaluation of aerosol optical thickness

Partha Sarathi Bhattacharjee1, Jun Wang2, Cheng-Hsuan Lu3, and Vijay Tallapragada2 Partha Sarathi Bhattacharjee et al.
  • 1I. M. Systems Group, INC. at NOAA/NWS National Centers for Environment Prediction, College Park, MD 20740, USA
  • 2NOAA/NWS National Centers for Environment Prediction, College Park, MD 20740, USA
  • 3University of Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY 12222, USA

Abstract. An accurate representation of aerosols in global numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is important to predict major air pollution events and to also understand aerosol effects on short-term weather forecasts. Recently the global aerosol forecast model at NOAA, the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) GFS Aerosol Component (NGAC), was upgraded from its dust-only version 1 to include five species of aerosols (black carbon, organic carbon, sulfate, sea salt and dust). This latest upgrade, now called NGACv2, is an in-line aerosol forecast system providing three-dimensional aerosol mixing ratios along with aerosol optical properties, including aerosol optical thickness (AOT), every 3h up to 5 days at global 1°  ×  1° resolution. In this paper, we evaluated nearly 1.5 years of model AOT at 550nm with available satellite retrievals, multi-model ensembles and surface observations over different aerosol regimes. Evaluation results show that NGACv2 has high correlations and low root mean square errors associated with African dust and also accurately represented the seasonal shift in aerosol plumes from Africa. Also, the model represented southern African and Canadian forest fires, dust from Asia, and AOT within the US with some degree of success. We have identified model underestimation for some of the aerosol regimes (particularly over Asia) and will investigate this further to improve the model forecast. The addition of a data assimilation capability to NGAC in the near future is expected to provide a positive impact in aerosol forecast by the model.

Publications Copernicus
Download
Short summary
National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) at NOAA recently upgraded their operational global aerosol forecast model from dust-only in version 1 to five species (dust, sea salt, black and organic carbon) of aerosols in version 2. In this work, we have validated the newly implemented aerosol model (NGACv2) which forecast at every 3 h up to 5 days against ground and satellite observations and other available model simulations.
National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) at NOAA recently upgraded their operational...
Citation
Share