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Geoscientific Model Development An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 11, issue 8 | Copyright
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3327-3346, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3327-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Development and technical paper 21 Aug 2018

Development and technical paper | 21 Aug 2018

Developing a global operational seasonal hydro-meteorological forecasting system: GloFAS-Seasonal v1.0

Rebecca Emerton1,2, Ervin Zsoter2,1, Louise Arnal1,2, Hannah L. Cloke1,3, Davide Muraro6, Christel Prudhomme2,4,5, Elisabeth M. Stephens1, Peter Salamon7, and Florian Pappenberger2 Rebecca Emerton et al.
  • 1Department of Geography & Environmental Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK
  • 2European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Reading,UK
  • 3 Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
  • 4Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH), Wallingford, UK
  • 5Department of Geography and Environment, University of Loughborough, Loughborough, UK
  • 6Image Recognition Integrated Systems (IRIS), Ispra, Italy
  • 7European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy

Abstract. Global overviews of upcoming flood and drought events are key for many applications, including disaster risk reduction initiatives. Seasonal forecasts are designed to provide early indications of such events weeks or even months in advance, but seasonal forecasts for hydrological variables at large or global scales are few and far between. Here, we present the first operational global-scale seasonal hydro-meteorological forecasting system: GloFAS-Seasonal. Developed as an extension of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS), GloFAS-Seasonal couples seasonal meteorological forecasts from ECMWF with a hydrological model to provide openly available probabilistic forecasts of river flow out to 4 months ahead for the global river network. This system has potential benefits not only for disaster risk reduction through early awareness of floods and droughts, but also for water-related sectors such as agriculture and water resources management, in particular for regions where no other forecasting system exists. We describe the key hydro-meteorological components and computational framework of GloFAS-Seasonal, alongside the forecast products available, before discussing initial evaluation results and next steps.

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Global overviews of upcoming flood and drought events are key for many applications from agriculture to disaster risk reduction. Seasonal forecasts are designed to provide early indications of such events weeks or even months in advance. This paper introduces GloFAS-Seasonal, the first operational global-scale seasonal hydro-meteorological forecasting system producing openly available forecasts of high and low river flow out to 4 months ahead.
Global overviews of upcoming flood and drought events are key for many applications from...
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