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Geoscientific Model Development An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 11, issue 11 | Copyright
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4537-4562, 2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Model experiment description paper 13 Nov 2018

Model experiment description paper | 13 Nov 2018

A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios

HyeJin Kim1,2, Isabel M. D. Rosa1,2, Rob Alkemade3,4, Paul Leadley5, George Hurtt6, Alexander Popp7, Detlef P. van Vuuren3,8, Peter Anthoni9, Almut Arneth9, Daniele Baisero10, Emma Caton11, Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer12, Louise Chini6, Adriana De Palma11, Fulvio Di Fulvio13, Moreno Di Marco14, Felipe Espinoza11, Simon Ferrier15, Shinichiro Fujimori16, Ricardo E. Gonzalez17, Maya Gueguen18, Carlos Guerra1,2, Mike Harfoot19, Thomas D. Harwood15, Tomoko Hasegawa20, Vanessa Haverd21, Petr Havlík13, Stefanie Hellweg22, Samantha L. L. Hill11,19, Akiko Hirata23, Andrew J. Hoskins15, Jan H. Janse3,24, Walter Jetz25, Justin A. Johnson26, Andreas Krause9, David Leclère13, Ines S. Martins1,2, Tetsuya Matsui23, Cory Merow25, Michael Obersteiner13, Haruka Ohashi23, Benjamin Poulter27, Andy Purvis11,17, Benjamin Quesada9,28, Carlo Rondinini10, Aafke M. Schipper3,29, Richard Sharp12, Kiyoshi Takahashi20, Wilfried Thuiller18, Nicolas Titeux1,30, Piero Visconti31,32, Christopher Ware15, Florian Wolf1,2, and Henrique M. Pereira1,2,33 HyeJin Kim et al.
  • 1German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, 04103 Leipzig, Germany
  • 2Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle Wittenberg, Am Kirchtor 1, 06108 Halle (Saale), Germany
  • 3PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the Hague, the Netherlands
  • 4Environmental System Analysis Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, the Netherlands
  • 5Ecologie Systématique Evolution, Univ. Paris-Sud, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Université Paris-Saclay, 91400, Orsay, France
  • 6Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20740, USA
  • 7Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
  • 8Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
  • 9Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Dept. Meteorology and Climate/Atmospheric Environmental Research, Kreuzeckbahnstr. 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
  • 10C/O Global Mammal Assessment program, Department of Biology and Biotechnologies, Sapienza Università di Roma, Viale dell'Univerisità 32, 00185, Rome, Italy
  • 11Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London SW7 5BD, UK
  • 12The Natural Capital Project, Stanford University, 371 Serra Mall, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
  • 13International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg 2361, Austria
  • 14CSIRO Land and Water, GPO Box 2583, Brisbane QLD 4001, Australia
  • 15CSIRO Land and Water, GPO Box 1700, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia
  • 16Kyoto University, Department of Environmental Engineering, 361, C1-3, Kyoto University Katsura Campus, Nishikyo-ku, Kyoto-city, 615-8540 Japan
  • 17Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, Ascot SL5 7PY, UK
  • 18Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Univ. Savoie Mont Blanc, Laboratoire d'Écologie Alpine (LECA), 38000 Grenoble, France
  • 19UN Environment, World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge, CB3 0DL, UK
  • 20Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
  • 21CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra, 2601, Australia
  • 22Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland
  • 23Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Forest Research and Management Organization, 1 Matsunosato, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8687, Japan
  • 24Netherlands Inst. of Ecology NIOO-KNAW, Wageningen, the Netherlands
  • 25Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, 165 Prospect St, New Haven, CT 06511, USA
  • 26Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, 1954 Buford Ave. St. Paul, MN 55105, USA
  • 27NASA GSFC, Biospheric Science Lab., Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
  • 28Universidad del Rosario, Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, Kr 26 No 63B-48, Bogotá D.C, Colombia
  • 29Institute for Water and Wetland Research, P.O. Box 9010, 6500 GL Nijmegen, the Netherlands
  • 30Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Department of Community Ecology, Theodor-Lieser-Strasse 4, 06210 Halle, Germany
  • 31Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London, NW1 4RY, UK
  • 32Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, University College London, Gower Street, London, C1E6BT, UK
  • 33CIBIO/InBIO, Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, Cátedra REFER-Biodiveridade, Universidade do Porto, Campus Agrário de Vairão, R. Padre Armando Quintas, 4485-661 Vairão, Portugal

Abstract. To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land-use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e., nature's contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) – SSP1xRCP2.6, SSP3xRCP6.0, SSP5xRCP8.6 – to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenario selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem services models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modeling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modeling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios.

Publications Copernicus
Short summary
This paper lays out the protocol for the Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Scenario-based Intercomparison of Models (BES-SIM) that projects the global impacts of land use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century. BES-SIM uses harmonized scenarios and input data and a set of common output metrics at multiple scales, and identifies model uncertainties and research gaps.
This paper lays out the protocol for the Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Scenario-based...