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Geoscientific Model Development An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 12, issue 4
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1319-1350, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1319-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1319-1350, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1319-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Model description paper 03 Apr 2019

Model description paper | 03 Apr 2019

A crop yield change emulator for use in GCAM and similar models: Persephone v1.0

Abigail Snyder1, Katherine V. Calvin1, Meridel Phillips2,3, and Alex C. Ruane3 Abigail Snyder et al.
  • 1Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, USA
  • 2Earth Institute Center For Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
  • 3Goddard Institute for Space Studies, NASA, New York, NY, USA

Abstract. Future changes in Earth system state will impact agricultural yields and, through these changed yields, can have profound impacts on the global economy. Global gridded crop models estimate the influence of these Earth system changes on future crop yields but are often too computationally intensive to dynamically couple into global multi-sector economic models, such as the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) and other similar-in-scale models. Yet, generalizing a faster site-specific crop model's results to be used globally will introduce inaccuracies, and the question of which model to use is unclear given the wide variation in yield response across crop models. To examine the feedback loop among socioeconomics, Earth system changes, and crop yield changes, rapidly generated yield responses with some quantification of crop response uncertainty are desirable. The Persephone v1.0 response functions presented in this work are based on the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP) sensitivity test data set and are focused on providing GCAM and similar models with a tractable number of rapid to evaluate dynamic yield response functions corresponding to a range of the yield response sensitivities seen in the C3MP data set. With the Persephone response functions, a new variety of agricultural impact experiments will be open to GCAM and other economic models: for example, examining the economic impacts of a multi-year drought in a key agricultural region and how economic changes in response to the drought can, in turn, impact the drought.

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Future changes in Earth system state will impact agricultural yields and therefore the global economy. Global gridded crop models estimate the influence of these Earth system changes on future crop yields, but are often too computationally intensive to dynamically couple into global multi-sector economic models, such as GCAM and other similar-in-scale models. This work describes a new crop yield change emulator, Persephone, that can capture yield changes in a computationally efficient way.
Future changes in Earth system state will impact agricultural yields and therefore the global...
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