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Geoscientific Model Development An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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GMD | Articles | Volume 12, issue 2
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 723-734, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-723-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 723-734, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-723-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Model description paper 19 Feb 2019

Model description paper | 19 Feb 2019

Stochastic ensemble climate forecast with an analogue model

Pascal Yiou and Céline Déandréis
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Ailliot, P., Allard, D., Monbet, V., and Naveau, P.: Stochastic weather generators: an overview of weather type models, J. Soc. Franc. Stat., 156, 101–113, 2015. a
Atencia, A. and Zawadzki, I.: A comparison of two techniques for generating nowcasting ensembles. Part II: Analogs selection and comparison of techniques, Mon. Weather Rev., 143, 2890–2908, 2015. a, b
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We devised a system that simulates large ensembles of forecasts for European temperatures and the North Atlantic Oscillation index. This system is based on a stochastic weather generator that samples analogs of SLP. This paper provides statistical tests of temperature and NAO forecasts for timescales of days to months. We argue that the forecast skill of the system is significantly positive and could be used as a baseline for numerical weather forecast.
We devised a system that simulates large ensembles of forecasts for European temperatures and...
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