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Geoscientific Model Development An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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GMD | Articles | Volume 12, issue 2
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 723-734, 2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 723-734, 2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Model description paper 19 Feb 2019

Model description paper | 19 Feb 2019

Stochastic ensemble climate forecast with an analogue model

Pascal Yiou and Céline Déandréis
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Cited articles  
Ailliot, P., Allard, D., Monbet, V., and Naveau, P.: Stochastic weather generators: an overview of weather type models, J. Soc. Franc. Stat., 156, 101–113, 2015. a
Atencia, A. and Zawadzki, I.: A comparison of two techniques for generating nowcasting ensembles. Part II: Analogs selection and comparison of techniques, Mon. Weather Rev., 143, 2890–2908, 2015. a, b
Baker, L. H., Shaffrey, L. C., and Scaife, A. A.: Improved seasonal prediction of UK regional precipitation using atmospheric circulation, Int. J. Climatol., 38, e437–e453, 2018. a
Barnston, A. G. and Livezey, R. E.: Classification, Seasonality and Persistence of Low-Frequency Atmospheric Circulation Patterns, Mon. Weather Rev., 115, 1083–1126, 1987. a
Carter, T. R.: Developing scenarios of atmosphere, weather and climate for northern regions, Agr. Food Sci. Fin., 5, 235–249, 1996. a
Publications Copernicus
Short summary
We devised a system that simulates large ensembles of forecasts for European temperatures and the North Atlantic Oscillation index. This system is based on a stochastic weather generator that samples analogs of SLP. This paper provides statistical tests of temperature and NAO forecasts for timescales of days to months. We argue that the forecast skill of the system is significantly positive and could be used as a baseline for numerical weather forecast.
We devised a system that simulates large ensembles of forecasts for European temperatures and...