Articles | Volume 13, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2277-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2277-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Assessing the performance of climate change simulation results from BESM-OA2.5 compared with a CMIP5 model ensemble
Vinicius Buscioli Capistrano
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies/National Institute for Space Research (CPTEC/INPE), Cachoeira Paulista – São Paulo, Brazil
Amazonas State University (UEA), Manaus – Amazonas, Brazil
Paulo Nobre
Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies/National Institute for Space Research (CPTEC/INPE), Cachoeira Paulista – São Paulo, Brazil
Sandro F. Veiga
Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies/National Institute for Space Research (CPTEC/INPE), Cachoeira Paulista – São Paulo, Brazil
Renata Tedeschi
Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies/National Institute for Space Research (CPTEC/INPE), Cachoeira Paulista – São Paulo, Brazil
Josiane Silva
Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies/National Institute for Space Research (CPTEC/INPE), Cachoeira Paulista – São Paulo, Brazil
Marcus Bottino
Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies/National Institute for Space Research (CPTEC/INPE), Cachoeira Paulista – São Paulo, Brazil
Manoel Baptista da Silva Jr.
Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies/National Institute for Space Research (CPTEC/INPE), Cachoeira Paulista – São Paulo, Brazil
Otacílio Leandro Menezes Neto
Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies/National Institute for Space Research (CPTEC/INPE), Cachoeira Paulista – São Paulo, Brazil
Silvio Nilo Figueroa
Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies/National Institute for Space Research (CPTEC/INPE), Cachoeira Paulista – São Paulo, Brazil
José Paulo Bonatti
Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies/National Institute for Space Research (CPTEC/INPE), Cachoeira Paulista – São Paulo, Brazil
Paulo Yoshio Kubota
Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies/National Institute for Space Research (CPTEC/INPE), Cachoeira Paulista – São Paulo, Brazil
Julio Pablo Reyes Fernandez
Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies/National Institute for Space Research (CPTEC/INPE), Cachoeira Paulista – São Paulo, Brazil
Emanuel Giarolla
Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies/National Institute for Space Research (CPTEC/INPE), Cachoeira Paulista – São Paulo, Brazil
Jessica Vial
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique/Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (LMD/CNRS), Paris, France
Carlos A. Nobre
National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN), São José dos Campos – São Paulo, Brazil
Related authors
Sandro F. Veiga, Paulo Nobre, Emanuel Giarolla, Vinicius Capistrano, Manoel Baptista Jr., André L. Marquez, Silvio Nilo Figueroa, José Paulo Bonatti, Paulo Kubota, and Carlos A. Nobre
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1613–1642, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1613-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1613-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates the Brazilian Earth System Model with coupled ocean–atmosphere version 2.5 (BESM-OA2.5) and the effectiveness of reproducing the main characteristics of the atmospheric and oceanic variability in a real-life-based scenario of greenhouse gas increase (the CMIP5 historical protocol). The evaluation specifically focuses on how the model simulates the mean climate state, as well as the most important large-scale climate patterns.
Bjorn Stevens, Stefan Adami, Tariq Ali, Hartwig Anzt, Zafer Aslan, Sabine Attinger, Jaana Bäck, Johanna Baehr, Peter Bauer, Natacha Bernier, Bob Bishop, Hendryk Bockelmann, Sandrine Bony, Veronique Bouchet, Guy Brasseur, David N. Bresch, Sean Breyer, Gilbert Brunet, Pier Luigi Buttigieg, Junji Cao, Christelle Castet, Yafang Cheng, Ayantika Dey Choudhury, Deborah Coen, Susanne Crewell, Atish Dabholkar, Qing Dai, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Dale Durran, Ayoub El Gaidi, Charlie Ewen, Eleftheria Exarchou, Veronika Eyring, Florencia Falkinhoff, David Farrell, Piers M. Forster, Ariane Frassoni, Claudia Frauen, Oliver Fuhrer, Shahzad Gani, Edwin Gerber, Debra Goldfarb, Jens Grieger, Nicolas Gruber, Wilco Hazeleger, Rolf Herken, Chris Hewitt, Torsten Hoefler, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Daniela Jacob, Alexandra Jahn, Christian Jakob, Thomas Jung, Christopher Kadow, In-Sik Kang, Sarah Kang, Karthik Kashinath, Katharina Kleinen-von Königslöw, Daniel Klocke, Uta Kloenne, Milan Klöwer, Chihiro Kodama, Stefan Kollet, Tobias Kölling, Jenni Kontkanen, Steve Kopp, Michal Koran, Markku Kulmala, Hanna Lappalainen, Fakhria Latifi, Bryan Lawrence, June Yi Lee, Quentin Lejeun, Christian Lessig, Chao Li, Thomas Lippert, Jürg Luterbacher, Pekka Manninen, Jochem Marotzke, Satoshi Matsouoka, Charlotte Merchant, Peter Messmer, Gero Michel, Kristel Michielsen, Tomoki Miyakawa, Jens Müller, Ramsha Munir, Sandeep Narayanasetti, Ousmane Ndiaye, Carlos Nobre, Achim Oberg, Riko Oki, Tuba Özkan-Haller, Tim Palmer, Stan Posey, Andreas Prein, Odessa Primus, Mike Pritchard, Julie Pullen, Dian Putrasahan, Johannes Quaas, Krishnan Raghavan, Venkatachalam Ramaswamy, Markus Rapp, Florian Rauser, Markus Reichstein, Aromar Revi, Sonakshi Saluja, Masaki Satoh, Vera Schemann, Sebastian Schemm, Christina Schnadt Poberaj, Thomas Schulthess, Cath Senior, Jagadish Shukla, Manmeet Singh, Julia Slingo, Adam Sobel, Silvina Solman, Jenna Spitzer, Detlef Stammer, Philip Stier, Thomas Stocker, Sarah Strock, Hang Su, Petteri Taalas, John Taylor, Susann Tegtmeier, Georg Teutsch, Adrian Tompkins, Uwe Ulbrich, Pier-Luigi Vidale, Chien-Ming Wu, Hao Xu, Najibullah Zaki, Laure Zanna, Tianjun Zhou, and Florian Ziemen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-376, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-376, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
To manage Earth in the Anthropocene, new tools, new institutions, and new forms of international cooperation will be required. Earth Virtualization Engines are proposed as international federation of centers of excellence to empower all people to respond to the immense and urgent challenges posed by climate change.
Eduardo Rohde Eras, Haroldo Fraga de Campos Velho, and Paulo Yoshio Kubota
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-59, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-59, 2023
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
Short summary
Short summary
The portion of the earth atmosphere closer to the ground is responsible for heat, moisture and mechanical energy transportation between the surface and the air through turbulence, been very important for weather forecast. Between many solutions used to model this turbulence, this is the first attempt to use one based on Taylor's statistical theory in a global atmospheric model, achieving good results for precipitation and energy transportation, specially in the Amazon basin region.
Enner Alcântara, José A. Marengo, José Mantovani, Luciana R. Londe, Rachel Lau Yu San, Edward Park, Yunung Nina Lin, Jingyu Wang, Tatiana Mendes, Ana Paula Cunha, Luana Pampuch, Marcelo Seluchi, Silvio Simões, Luz Adriana Cuartas, Demerval Goncalves, Klécia Massi, Regina Alvalá, Osvaldo Moraes, Carlos Souza Filho, Rodolfo Mendes, and Carlos Nobre
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1157–1175, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1157-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The municipality of Petrópolis (approximately 305 687 inhabitants) is nestled in the mountains 68 km outside the city of Rio de Janeiro. On 15 February 2022, the city of Petrópolis in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, received an unusually high volume of rain within 3 h (258 mm). This resulted in flash floods and subsequent landslides that caused 231 fatalities, the deadliest landslide disaster recorded in Petrópolis. This work shows how the disaster was triggered.
Heike Konow, Florian Ewald, Geet George, Marek Jacob, Marcus Klingebiel, Tobias Kölling, Anna E. Luebke, Theresa Mieslinger, Veronika Pörtge, Jule Radtke, Michael Schäfer, Hauke Schulz, Raphaela Vogel, Martin Wirth, Sandrine Bony, Susanne Crewell, André Ehrlich, Linda Forster, Andreas Giez, Felix Gödde, Silke Groß, Manuel Gutleben, Martin Hagen, Lutz Hirsch, Friedhelm Jansen, Theresa Lang, Bernhard Mayer, Mario Mech, Marc Prange, Sabrina Schnitt, Jessica Vial, Andreas Walbröl, Manfred Wendisch, Kevin Wolf, Tobias Zinner, Martin Zöger, Felix Ament, and Bjorn Stevens
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5545–5563, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5545-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5545-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The German research aircraft HALO took part in the research campaign EUREC4A in January and February 2020. The focus area was the tropical Atlantic east of the island of Barbados. We describe the characteristics of the 15 research flights, provide auxiliary information, derive combined cloud mask products from all instruments that observe clouds on board the aircraft, and provide code examples that help new users of the data to get started.
Bjorn Stevens, Sandrine Bony, David Farrell, Felix Ament, Alan Blyth, Christopher Fairall, Johannes Karstensen, Patricia K. Quinn, Sabrina Speich, Claudia Acquistapace, Franziska Aemisegger, Anna Lea Albright, Hugo Bellenger, Eberhard Bodenschatz, Kathy-Ann Caesar, Rebecca Chewitt-Lucas, Gijs de Boer, Julien Delanoë, Leif Denby, Florian Ewald, Benjamin Fildier, Marvin Forde, Geet George, Silke Gross, Martin Hagen, Andrea Hausold, Karen J. Heywood, Lutz Hirsch, Marek Jacob, Friedhelm Jansen, Stefan Kinne, Daniel Klocke, Tobias Kölling, Heike Konow, Marie Lothon, Wiebke Mohr, Ann Kristin Naumann, Louise Nuijens, Léa Olivier, Robert Pincus, Mira Pöhlker, Gilles Reverdin, Gregory Roberts, Sabrina Schnitt, Hauke Schulz, A. Pier Siebesma, Claudia Christine Stephan, Peter Sullivan, Ludovic Touzé-Peiffer, Jessica Vial, Raphaela Vogel, Paquita Zuidema, Nicola Alexander, Lyndon Alves, Sophian Arixi, Hamish Asmath, Gholamhossein Bagheri, Katharina Baier, Adriana Bailey, Dariusz Baranowski, Alexandre Baron, Sébastien Barrau, Paul A. Barrett, Frédéric Batier, Andreas Behrendt, Arne Bendinger, Florent Beucher, Sebastien Bigorre, Edmund Blades, Peter Blossey, Olivier Bock, Steven Böing, Pierre Bosser, Denis Bourras, Pascale Bouruet-Aubertot, Keith Bower, Pierre Branellec, Hubert Branger, Michal Brennek, Alan Brewer, Pierre-Etienne Brilouet, Björn Brügmann, Stefan A. Buehler, Elmo Burke, Ralph Burton, Radiance Calmer, Jean-Christophe Canonici, Xavier Carton, Gregory Cato Jr., Jude Andre Charles, Patrick Chazette, Yanxu Chen, Michal T. Chilinski, Thomas Choularton, Patrick Chuang, Shamal Clarke, Hugh Coe, Céline Cornet, Pierre Coutris, Fleur Couvreux, Susanne Crewell, Timothy Cronin, Zhiqiang Cui, Yannis Cuypers, Alton Daley, Gillian M. Damerell, Thibaut Dauhut, Hartwig Deneke, Jean-Philippe Desbios, Steffen Dörner, Sebastian Donner, Vincent Douet, Kyla Drushka, Marina Dütsch, André Ehrlich, Kerry Emanuel, Alexandros Emmanouilidis, Jean-Claude Etienne, Sheryl Etienne-Leblanc, Ghislain Faure, Graham Feingold, Luca Ferrero, Andreas Fix, Cyrille Flamant, Piotr Jacek Flatau, Gregory R. Foltz, Linda Forster, Iulian Furtuna, Alan Gadian, Joseph Galewsky, Martin Gallagher, Peter Gallimore, Cassandra Gaston, Chelle Gentemann, Nicolas Geyskens, Andreas Giez, John Gollop, Isabelle Gouirand, Christophe Gourbeyre, Dörte de Graaf, Geiske E. de Groot, Robert Grosz, Johannes Güttler, Manuel Gutleben, Kashawn Hall, George Harris, Kevin C. Helfer, Dean Henze, Calvert Herbert, Bruna Holanda, Antonio Ibanez-Landeta, Janet Intrieri, Suneil Iyer, Fabrice Julien, Heike Kalesse, Jan Kazil, Alexander Kellman, Abiel T. Kidane, Ulrike Kirchner, Marcus Klingebiel, Mareike Körner, Leslie Ann Kremper, Jan Kretzschmar, Ovid Krüger, Wojciech Kumala, Armin Kurz, Pierre L'Hégaret, Matthieu Labaste, Tom Lachlan-Cope, Arlene Laing, Peter Landschützer, Theresa Lang, Diego Lange, Ingo Lange, Clément Laplace, Gauke Lavik, Rémi Laxenaire, Caroline Le Bihan, Mason Leandro, Nathalie Lefevre, Marius Lena, Donald Lenschow, Qiang Li, Gary Lloyd, Sebastian Los, Niccolò Losi, Oscar Lovell, Christopher Luneau, Przemyslaw Makuch, Szymon Malinowski, Gaston Manta, Eleni Marinou, Nicholas Marsden, Sebastien Masson, Nicolas Maury, Bernhard Mayer, Margarette Mayers-Als, Christophe Mazel, Wayne McGeary, James C. McWilliams, Mario Mech, Melina Mehlmann, Agostino Niyonkuru Meroni, Theresa Mieslinger, Andreas Minikin, Peter Minnett, Gregor Möller, Yanmichel Morfa Avalos, Caroline Muller, Ionela Musat, Anna Napoli, Almuth Neuberger, Christophe Noisel, David Noone, Freja Nordsiek, Jakub L. Nowak, Lothar Oswald, Douglas J. Parker, Carolyn Peck, Renaud Person, Miriam Philippi, Albert Plueddemann, Christopher Pöhlker, Veronika Pörtge, Ulrich Pöschl, Lawrence Pologne, Michał Posyniak, Marc Prange, Estefanía Quiñones Meléndez, Jule Radtke, Karim Ramage, Jens Reimann, Lionel Renault, Klaus Reus, Ashford Reyes, Joachim Ribbe, Maximilian Ringel, Markus Ritschel, Cesar B. Rocha, Nicolas Rochetin, Johannes Röttenbacher, Callum Rollo, Haley Royer, Pauline Sadoulet, Leo Saffin, Sanola Sandiford, Irina Sandu, Michael Schäfer, Vera Schemann, Imke Schirmacher, Oliver Schlenczek, Jerome Schmidt, Marcel Schröder, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Andrea Sealy, Christoph J. Senff, Ilya Serikov, Samkeyat Shohan, Elizabeth Siddle, Alexander Smirnov, Florian Späth, Branden Spooner, M. Katharina Stolla, Wojciech Szkółka, Simon P. de Szoeke, Stéphane Tarot, Eleni Tetoni, Elizabeth Thompson, Jim Thomson, Lorenzo Tomassini, Julien Totems, Alma Anna Ubele, Leonie Villiger, Jan von Arx, Thomas Wagner, Andi Walther, Ben Webber, Manfred Wendisch, Shanice Whitehall, Anton Wiltshire, Allison A. Wing, Martin Wirth, Jonathan Wiskandt, Kevin Wolf, Ludwig Worbes, Ethan Wright, Volker Wulfmeyer, Shanea Young, Chidong Zhang, Dongxiao Zhang, Florian Ziemen, Tobias Zinner, and Martin Zöger
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4067–4119, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4067-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4067-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The EUREC4A field campaign, designed to test hypothesized mechanisms by which clouds respond to warming and benchmark next-generation Earth-system models, is presented. EUREC4A comprised roughly 5 weeks of measurements in the downstream winter trades of the North Atlantic – eastward and southeastward of Barbados. It was the first campaign that attempted to characterize the full range of processes and scales influencing trade wind clouds.
Yongkang Xue, Tandong Yao, Aaron A. Boone, Ismaila Diallo, Ye Liu, Xubin Zeng, William K. M. Lau, Shiori Sugimoto, Qi Tang, Xiaoduo Pan, Peter J. van Oevelen, Daniel Klocke, Myung-Seo Koo, Tomonori Sato, Zhaohui Lin, Yuhei Takaya, Constantin Ardilouze, Stefano Materia, Subodh K. Saha, Retish Senan, Tetsu Nakamura, Hailan Wang, Jing Yang, Hongliang Zhang, Mei Zhao, Xin-Zhong Liang, J. David Neelin, Frederic Vitart, Xin Li, Ping Zhao, Chunxiang Shi, Weidong Guo, Jianping Tang, Miao Yu, Yun Qian, Samuel S. P. Shen, Yang Zhang, Kun Yang, Ruby Leung, Yuan Qiu, Daniele Peano, Xin Qi, Yanling Zhan, Michael A. Brunke, Sin Chan Chou, Michael Ek, Tianyi Fan, Hong Guan, Hai Lin, Shunlin Liang, Helin Wei, Shaocheng Xie, Haoran Xu, Weiping Li, Xueli Shi, Paulo Nobre, Yan Pan, Yi Qin, Jeff Dozier, Craig R. Ferguson, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Qing Bao, Jinming Feng, Jinkyu Hong, Songyou Hong, Huilin Huang, Duoying Ji, Zhenming Ji, Shichang Kang, Yanluan Lin, Weiguang Liu, Ryan Muncaster, Patricia de Rosnay, Hiroshi G. Takahashi, Guiling Wang, Shuyu Wang, Weicai Wang, Xu Zhou, and Yuejian Zhu
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4465–4494, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4465-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4465-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The subseasonal prediction of extreme hydroclimate events such as droughts/floods has remained stubbornly low for years. This paper presents a new international initiative which, for the first time, introduces spring land surface temperature anomalies over high mountains to improve precipitation prediction through remote effects of land–atmosphere interactions. More than 40 institutions worldwide are participating in this effort. The experimental protocol and preliminary results are presented.
Anna Lea Albright, Benjamin Fildier, Ludovic Touzé-Peiffer, Robert Pincus, Jessica Vial, and Caroline Muller
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 617–630, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-617-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-617-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A number of climate mysteries are rooted in uncertainties in how clouds respond to their environment in the trades, the global belt of easterly winds. Differences in radiative heating play a role in the couplings between clouds and their environment. We calculate radiative profiles from 2580 dropsondes and radiosondes from the EUREC4A field campaign (downstream Atlantic trades, winter 2020). We describe the method, assess uncertainty, and discuss radiative heating variability on multiple scales.
Fernanda Casagrande, Ronald Buss de Souza, Paulo Nobre, and Andre Lanfer Marquez
Ann. Geophys., 38, 1123–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-38-1123-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-38-1123-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Polar amplification is possibly one of the most important sensitive indicators of climate change. Our results showed that the polar regions are much more vulnerable to large warming due to an increase in atmospheric CO2 forcing than the rest of the world, particularly during the cold season. Despite the asymmetry in warming between the Arctic and Antarctic, both poles show systematic polar amplification in all climate models.
Sandro F. Veiga, Paulo Nobre, Emanuel Giarolla, Vinicius Capistrano, Manoel Baptista Jr., André L. Marquez, Silvio Nilo Figueroa, José Paulo Bonatti, Paulo Kubota, and Carlos A. Nobre
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1613–1642, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1613-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1613-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates the Brazilian Earth System Model with coupled ocean–atmosphere version 2.5 (BESM-OA2.5) and the effectiveness of reproducing the main characteristics of the atmospheric and oceanic variability in a real-life-based scenario of greenhouse gas increase (the CMIP5 historical protocol). The evaluation specifically focuses on how the model simulates the mean climate state, as well as the most important large-scale climate patterns.
Mabel Costa Calim, Paulo Nobre, Peter Oke, Andreas Schiller, Leo San Pedro Siqueira, and Guilherme Pimenta Castelão
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-5, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-5, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
A new tool inspired on tides is introduced. The Spectral Taylor Diagram designed for evaluating and monitoring models performance in frequency domain calculates the degree of correspondence between simulated and observed fields for a given frequency (or a band of frequencies). It's a powerful tool to detect co-oscillating patterns in multi scale analysis, without using filtering techniques.
Related subject area
Climate and Earth system modeling
Accurate assessment of land–atmosphere coupling in climate models requires high-frequency data output
Towards variance-conserving reconstructions of climate indices with Gaussian process regression in an embedding space
A diatom extension to the cGEnIE Earth system model – EcoGEnIE 1.1
Carbon isotopes in the marine biogeochemistry model FESOM2.1-REcoM3
Flux coupling approach on an exchange grid for the IOW Earth System Model (version 1.04.00) of the Baltic Sea region
Using EUREC4A/ATOMIC field campaign data to improve trade wind regimes in the Community Atmosphere Model
New model ensemble reveals how forcing uncertainty and model structure alter climate simulated across CMIP generations of the Community Earth System Model
Quantifying wildfire drivers and predictability in boreal peatlands using a two-step error-correcting machine learning framework in TeFire v1.0
Benchmarking GOCART-2G in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS)
Energy-conserving physics for nonhydrostatic dynamics in mass coordinate models
Evaluation and optimisation of the soil carbon turnover routine in the MONICA model (version 3.3.1)
Assessing the sensitivity of aerosol mass budget and effective radiative forcing to horizontal grid spacing in E3SMv1 using a regional refinement approach
Towards the definition of a solar forcing dataset for CMIP7
ibicus: a new open-source Python package and comprehensive interface for statistical bias adjustment and evaluation in climate modelling (v1.0.1)
Disentangling the hydrological and hydraulic controls on streamflow variability in Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) V2 – a case study in the Pantanal region
Constraining the carbon cycle in JULES-ES-1.0
The utility of simulated ocean chlorophyll observations: a case study with the Chlorophyll Observation Simulator Package (version 1) in CESMv2.2
GeoPDNN 1.0: a semi-supervised deep learning neural network using pseudo-labels for three-dimensional shallow strata modelling and uncertainty analysis in urban areas from borehole data
The prototype NOAA Aerosol Reanalysis version 1.0: description of the modeling system and its evaluation
Performance and process-based evaluation of the BARPA-R Australasian regional climate model version 1
Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System version 2.0: model description and Indian monsoon simulations
Exploring the ocean mesoscale at reduced computational cost with FESOM 2.5: efficient modeling strategies applied to the Southern Ocean
Truly conserving with conservative remapping methods
High-resolution downscaling of CMIP6 Earth system and global climate models using deep learning for Iberia
Earth system modeling on modular supercomputing architecture: coupled atmosphere–ocean simulations with ICON 2.6.6-rc
Global Downscaled Projections for Climate Impacts Research (GDPCIR): preserving quantile trends for modeling future climate impacts
Understanding changes in cloud simulations from E3SM version 1 to version 2
WRF (v4.0)–SUEWS (v2018c) coupled system: development, evaluation and application
Scenario setup and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a)
Deep learning model based on multi-scale feature fusion for precipitation nowcasting
The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0: a platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change
Getting the leaves right matters for estimating temperature extremes
The Southern Ocean Freshwater Input from Antarctica (SOFIA) Initiative: scientific objectives and experimental design
Modeling and evaluating the effects of irrigation on land–atmosphere interaction in southwestern Europe with the regional climate model REMO2020–iMOVE using a newly developed parameterization
The Regional Climate-Chemistry-Ecology Coupling Model RegCM-Chem (v4.6)-YIBs (v1.0): Development and Application
Process-oriented models of autumn leaf phenology: ways to sound calibration and implications of uncertain projections
An evaluation of the LLC4320 global-ocean simulation based on the submesoscale structure of modeled sea surface temperature fields
A one-dimensional urban flow model with an Eddy-diffusivity Mass-flux (EDMF) scheme and refined turbulent transport (MLUCM v3.0)
An emulation-based approach for interrogating reactive transport models
NEWTS1.0: Numerical model of coastal Erosion by Waves and Transgressive Scarps
A sub-grid parameterization scheme for topographic vertical motion in CAM5-SE
Technology to aid the analysis of large-volume multi-institute climate model output at a central analysis facility (PRIMAVERA Data Management Tool V2.10)
A diffusion-based kernel density estimator (diffKDE, version 1) with optimal bandwidth approximation for the analysis of data in geoscience and ecological research
Monte Carlo drift correction – quantifying the drift uncertainty of global climate models
Improvements in the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM) through systematic model analysis: CanESM5.0 and CanESM5.1
Subgrid-scale variability of cloud ice in the ICON-AES-1.3.00
Earth System Model Aerosol–Cloud Diagnostics (ESMAC Diags) package, version 2: assessing aerosols, clouds, and aerosol–cloud interactions via field campaign and long-term observations
INFERNO-peat v1.0.0: A representation of northern high latitude peat fires in the JULES-INFERNO global fire model
CIOFC1.0: a common parallel input/output framework based on C-Coupler2.0
Overcoming computational challenges to realize meter- to submeter-scale resolution in cloud simulations using the super-droplet method
Kirsten L. Findell, Zun Yin, Eunkyo Seo, Paul A. Dirmeyer, Nathan P. Arnold, Nathaniel Chaney, Megan D. Fowler, Meng Huang, David M. Lawrence, Po-Lun Ma, and Joseph A. Santanello Jr.
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1869–1883, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1869-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1869-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We outline a request for sub-daily data to accurately capture the process-level connections between land states, surface fluxes, and the boundary layer response. This high-frequency model output will allow for more direct comparison with observational field campaigns on process-relevant timescales, enable demonstration of inter-model spread in land–atmosphere coupling processes, and aid in targeted identification of sources of deficiencies and opportunities for improvement of the models.
Marlene Klockmann, Udo von Toussaint, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1765–1787, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1765-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1765-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Reconstructions of climate variability before the observational period rely on climate proxies and sophisticated statistical models to link the proxy information and climate variability. Existing models tend to underestimate the true magnitude of variability, especially if the proxies contain non-climatic noise. We present and test a promising new framework for climate-index reconstructions, based on Gaussian processes, which reconstructs robust variability estimates from noisy and sparse data.
Aaron A. Naidoo-Bagwell, Fanny M. Monteiro, Katharine R. Hendry, Scott Burgan, Jamie D. Wilson, Ben A. Ward, Andy Ridgwell, and Daniel J. Conley
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1729–1748, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1729-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1729-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
As an extension to the EcoGEnIE 1.0 Earth system model that features a diverse plankton community, EcoGEnIE 1.1 includes siliceous plankton diatoms and also considers their impact on biogeochemical cycles. With updates to existing nutrient cycles and the introduction of the silicon cycle, we see improved model performance relative to observational data. Through a more functionally diverse plankton community, the new model enables more comprehensive future study of ocean ecology.
Martin Butzin, Ying Ye, Christoph Völker, Özgür Gürses, Judith Hauck, and Peter Köhler
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1709–1727, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1709-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1709-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we describe the implementation of the carbon isotopes 13C and 14C into the marine biogeochemistry model FESOM2.1-REcoM3 and present results of long-term test simulations. Our model results are largely consistent with marine carbon isotope reconstructions for the pre-anthropogenic period, but also exhibit some discrepancies.
Sven Karsten, Hagen Radtke, Matthias Gröger, Ha T. M. Ho-Hagemann, Hossein Mashayekh, Thomas Neumann, and H. E. Markus Meier
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1689–1708, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1689-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the development of a regional Earth System Model for the Baltic Sea region. In contrast to conventional coupling approaches, the presented model includes a flux calculator operating on a common exchange grid. This approach automatically ensures a locally consistent treatment of fluxes and simplifies the exchange of model components. The presented model can be used for various scientific questions, such as studies of natural variability and ocean–atmosphere interactions.
Skyler Graap and Colin M. Zarzycki
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1627–1650, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1627-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1627-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A key target for improving climate models is how low, bright clouds are predicted over tropical oceans, since they have important consequences for the Earth's energy budget. A climate model has been updated to improve the physical realism of the treatment of how momentum is moved up and down in the atmosphere. By comparing this updated model to real-world observations from balloon launches, it can be shown to more accurately depict atmospheric structure in trade-wind areas close to the Equator.
Marika M. Holland, Cecile Hannay, John Fasullo, Alexandra Jahn, Jennifer E. Kay, Michael Mills, Isla R. Simpson, William Wieder, Peter Lawrence, Erik Kluzek, and David Bailey
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1585–1602, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1585-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1585-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate evolves in response to changing forcings, as prescribed in simulations. Models and forcings are updated over time to reflect new understanding. This makes it difficult to attribute simulation differences to either model or forcing changes. Here we present new simulations which enable the separation of model structure and forcing influence between two widely used simulation sets. Results indicate a strong influence of aerosol emission uncertainty on historical climate.
Rongyun Tang, Mingzhou Jin, Jiafu Mao, Daniel M. Ricciuto, Anping Chen, and Yulong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1525–1542, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1525-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1525-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Carbon-rich boreal peatlands are at risk of burning. The reproducibility and predictability of rare peatland fire events are investigated by constructing a two-step error-correcting machine learning framework to tackle such complex systems. Fire occurrence and impacts are highly predictable with our approach. Factor-controlling simulations revealed that temperature, moisture, and freeze–thaw cycles control boreal peatland fires, indicating thermal impacts on causing peat fires.
Allison B. Collow, Peter R. Colarco, Arlindo M. da Silva, Virginie Buchard, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Sampa Das, Ravi Govindaraju, Dongchul Kim, and Valentina Aquila
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1443–1468, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1443-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1443-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The GOCART aerosol module within the Goddard Earth Observing System recently underwent a major refactoring and update to the representation of physical processes. Code changes that were included in GOCART Second Generation (GOCART-2G) are documented, and we establish a benchmark simulation that is to be used for future development of the system. The 4-year benchmark simulation was evaluated using in situ and spaceborne measurements to develop a baseline and prioritize future development.
Oksana Guba, Mark A. Taylor, Peter A. Bosler, Christopher Eldred, and Peter H. Lauritzen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1429–1442, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1429-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We want to reduce errors in the moist energy budget in numerical atmospheric models. We study a few common assumptions and mechanisms that are used for the moist physics. Some mechanisms are more consistent with the underlying equations. Separately, we study how assumptions about models' thermodynamics affect the modeled energy of precipitation. We also explain how to conserve energy in the moist physics for nonhydrostatic models.
Konstantin Aiteew, Jarno Rouhiainen, Claas Nendel, and René Dechow
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1349–1385, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1349-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1349-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluated the biogeochemical model MONICA and its performance in simulating soil organic carbon changes. MONICA can reproduce plant growth, carbon and nitrogen dynamics, soil water and temperature. The model results were compared with five established carbon turnover models. With the exception of certain sites, adequate reproduction of soil organic carbon stock change rates was achieved. The MONICA model was capable of performing similar to or even better than the other models.
Jianfeng Li, Kai Zhang, Taufiq Hassan, Shixuan Zhang, Po-Lun Ma, Balwinder Singh, Qiyang Yan, and Huilin Huang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1327–1347, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1327-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1327-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
By comparing E3SM simulations with and without regional refinement, we find that model horizontal grid spacing considerably affects the simulated aerosol mass budget, aerosol–cloud interactions, and the effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols. The study identifies the critical physical processes strongly influenced by model resolution. It also highlights the benefit of applying regional refinement in future modeling studies at higher or even convection-permitting resolutions.
Bernd Funke, Thierry Dudok de Wit, Ilaria Ermolli, Margit Haberreiter, Doug Kinnison, Daniel Marsh, Hilde Nesse, Annika Seppälä, Miriam Sinnhuber, and Ilya Usoskin
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1217–1227, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1217-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1217-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We outline a road map for the preparation of a solar forcing dataset for the upcoming Phase 7 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP7), considering the latest scientific advances made in the reconstruction of solar forcing and in the understanding of climate response while also addressing the issues that were raised during CMIP6.
Fiona Raphaela Spuler, Jakob Benjamin Wessel, Edward Comyn-Platt, James Varndell, and Chiara Cagnazzo
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1249–1269, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1249-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1249-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Before using climate models to study the impacts of climate change, bias adjustment is commonly applied to the models to ensure that they correspond with observations at a local scale. However, this can introduce undesirable distortions into the climate model. In this paper, we present an open-source python package called ibicus to enable the comparison and detailed evaluation of bias adjustment methods, facilitating their transparent and rigorous application.
Donghui Xu, Gautam Bisht, Zeli Tan, Chang Liao, Tian Zhou, Hong-Yi Li, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1197–1215, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1197-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1197-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We aim to disentangle the hydrological and hydraulic controls on streamflow variability in a fully coupled earth system model. We found that calibrating only one process (i.e., traditional calibration procedure) will result in unrealistic parameter values and poor performance of the water cycle, while the simulated streamflow is improved. To address this issue, we further proposed a two-step calibration procedure to reconcile the impacts from hydrological and hydraulic processes on streamflow.
Douglas McNeall, Eddy Robertson, and Andy Wiltshire
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1059–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1059-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1059-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We can run simulations of the land surface and carbon cycle, using computer models to help us understand and predict climate change and its impacts. These simulations are not perfect reproductions of the real land surface, and that can make them less effective tools. We use new statistical and computational techniques to help us understand how different our models are from the real land surface, how to make them more realistic, and how well we can simulate past and future climate.
Genevieve L. Clow, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Michael N. Levy, Keith Lindsay, and Jennifer E. Kay
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 975–995, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-975-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-975-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite observations of chlorophyll allow us to study marine phytoplankton on a global scale; yet some of these observations are missing due to clouds and other issues. To investigate the impact of missing data, we developed a satellite simulator for chlorophyll in an Earth system model. We found that missing data can impact the global mean chlorophyll by nearly 20 %. The simulated observations provide a more direct comparison to real-world data and can be used to improve model validation.
Jiateng Guo, Xuechuang Xu, Luyuan Wang, Xulei Wang, Lixin Wu, Mark Jessell, Vitaliy Ogarko, Zhibin Liu, and Yufei Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 957–973, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-957-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-957-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes a semi-supervised learning algorithm using pseudo-labels for 3D geological modelling. We establish a 3D geological model using borehole data from a complex real urban local survey area in Shenyang and make an uncertainty analysis of this model. The method effectively expands the sample space, which is suitable for geomodelling and uncertainty analysis from boreholes. The modelling results perform well in terms of spatial morphology and geological semantics.
Shih-Wei Wei, Mariusz Pagowski, Arlindo da Silva, Cheng-Hsuan Lu, and Bo Huang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 795–813, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-795-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-795-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study describes the modeling system and the evaluation results for the first prototype version of a global aerosol reanalysis product at NOAA, prototype NOAA Aerosol ReAnalysis version 1.0 (pNARA v1.0). We evaluated pNARA v1.0 against independent datasets and compared it with other reanalyses. We identified deficiencies in the system (both in the forecast model and in the data assimilation system) and the uncertainties that exist in our reanalysis.
Emma Howard, Chun-Hsu Su, Christian Stassen, Rajashree Naha, Harvey Ye, Acacia Pepler, Samuel S. Bell, Andrew J. Dowdy, Simon O. Tucker, and Charmaine Franklin
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 731–757, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-731-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-731-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The BARPA-R modelling configuration has been developed to produce high-resolution climate hazard projections within the Australian region. When using boundary driving data from quasi-observed historical conditions, BARPA-R shows good performance with errors generally on par with reanalysis products. BARPA-R also captures trends, known modes of climate variability, large-scale weather processes, and multivariate relationships.
Deepeshkumar Jain, Suryachandra A. Rao, Ramu A. Dandi, Prasanth A. Pillai, Ankur Srivastava, Maheswar Pradhan, and Kiran V. Gangadharan
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 709–729, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-709-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-709-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The present paper discusses and evaluates the new Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System model (MMCFS) version 2.0 which upgrades the currently operational MMCFS v1.0 at the Indian Meteorological Department, India. The individual model components have been substantially upgraded independently by their respective scientific groups. MMCFS v2.0 includes these upgrades in the operational coupled model. The new model shows significant skill improvement in simulating the Indian monsoon.
Nathan Beech, Thomas Rackow, Tido Semmler, and Thomas Jung
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 529–543, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-529-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-529-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Cost-reducing modeling strategies are applied to high-resolution simulations of the Southern Ocean in a changing climate. They are evaluated with respect to observations and traditional, lower-resolution modeling methods. The simulations effectively reproduce small-scale ocean flows seen in satellite data and are largely consistent with traditional model simulations after 4 °C of warming. Small-scale flows are found to intensify near bathymetric features and to become more variable.
Karl E. Taylor
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 415–430, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-415-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-415-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Remapping gridded data in a way that preserves the conservative properties of the climate system can be essential in coupling model components and for accurate assessment of the system’s energy and mass constituents. Remapping packages capable of handling a wide variety of grids can, for some common grids, calculate remapping weights that are somewhat inaccurate. Correcting for these errors, guidelines are provided to ensure conservation when the weights are used in practice.
Pedro M. M. Soares, Frederico Johannsen, Daniela C. A. Lima, Gil Lemos, Virgílio A. Bento, and Angelina Bushenkova
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 229–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-229-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-229-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses deep learning (DL) to downscale global climate models for the Iberian Peninsula. Four DL architectures were evaluated and trained using historical climate data and then used to downscale future projections from the global models. These show agreement with the original models and reveal a warming of 2 ºC to 6 ºC, along with decreasing precipitation in western Iberia after 2040. This approach offers key regional climate change information for adaptation strategies in the region.
Abhiraj Bishnoi, Olaf Stein, Catrin I. Meyer, René Redler, Norbert Eicker, Helmuth Haak, Lars Hoffmann, Daniel Klocke, Luis Kornblueh, and Estela Suarez
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 261–273, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-261-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We enabled the weather and climate model ICON to run in a high-resolution coupled atmosphere–ocean setup on the JUWELS supercomputer, where the ocean and the model I/O runs on the CPU Cluster, while the atmosphere is running simultaneously on GPUs. Compared to a simulation performed on CPUs only, our approach reduces energy consumption by 45 % with comparable runtimes. The experiments serve as preparation for efficient computing of kilometer-scale climate models on future supercomputing systems.
Diana R. Gergel, Steven B. Malevich, Kelly E. McCusker, Emile Tenezakis, Michael T. Delgado, Meredith A. Fish, and Robert E. Kopp
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 191–227, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-191-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The freely available Global Downscaled Projections for Climate Impacts Research (GDPCIR) dataset gives researchers a new tool for studying how future climate will evolve at a local or regional level, corresponding to the latest global climate model simulations prepared as part of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report. Those simulations represent an enormous advance in quality, detail, and scope that GDPCIR translates to the local level.
Yuying Zhang, Shaocheng Xie, Yi Qin, Wuyin Lin, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Xue Zheng, Po-Lun Ma, Yun Qian, Qi Tang, Christopher R. Terai, and Meng Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 169–189, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-169-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-169-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We performed systematic evaluation of clouds simulated in the Energy
Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv2) to document model performance and understand what updates in E3SMv2 have caused changes in clouds from E3SMv1 to E3SMv2. We find that stratocumulus clouds along the subtropical west coast of continents are dramatically improved, primarily due to the retuning done in CLUBB. This study offers additional insights into clouds simulated in E3SMv2 and will benefit future E3SM developments.
Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv2) to document model performance and understand what updates in E3SMv2 have caused changes in clouds from E3SMv1 to E3SMv2. We find that stratocumulus clouds along the subtropical west coast of continents are dramatically improved, primarily due to the retuning done in CLUBB. This study offers additional insights into clouds simulated in E3SMv2 and will benefit future E3SM developments.
Ting Sun, Hamidreza Omidvar, Zhenkun Li, Ning Zhang, Wenjuan Huang, Simone Kotthaus, Helen C. Ward, Zhiwen Luo, and Sue Grimmond
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 91–116, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-91-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-91-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For the first time, we coupled a state-of-the-art urban land surface model – Surface Urban Energy and Water Scheme (SUEWS) – with the widely-used Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, creating an open-source tool that may benefit multiple applications. We tested our new system at two UK sites and demonstrated its potential by examining how human activities in various areas of Greater London influence local weather conditions.
Katja Frieler, Jan Volkholz, Stefan Lange, Jacob Schewe, Matthias Mengel, María del Rocío Rivas López, Christian Otto, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Johanna T. Malle, Simon Treu, Christoph Menz, Julia L. Blanchard, Cheryl S. Harrison, Colleen M. Petrik, Tyler D. Eddy, Kelly Ortega-Cisneros, Camilla Novaglio, Yannick Rousseau, Reg A. Watson, Charles Stock, Xiao Liu, Ryan Heneghan, Derek Tittensor, Olivier Maury, Matthias Büchner, Thomas Vogt, Tingting Wang, Fubao Sun, Inga J. Sauer, Johannes Koch, Inne Vanderkelen, Jonas Jägermeyr, Christoph Müller, Sam Rabin, Jochen Klar, Iliusi D. Vega del Valle, Gitta Lasslop, Sarah Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, Angela Gallego-Sala, Noah Smith, Jinfeng Chang, Stijn Hantson, Chantelle Burton, Anne Gädeke, Fang Li, Simon N. Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Fred Hattermann, Jida Wang, Fangfang Yao, Thomas Hickler, Rafael Marcé, Don Pierson, Wim Thiery, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Robert Ladwig, Ana Isabel Ayala-Zamora, Matthew Forrest, and Michel Bechtold
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper provides an overview of all observational climate-related and socioeconomic forcing data used as input for the impact model evaluation and impact attribution experiments within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. The experiments are designed to test our understanding of observed changes in natural and human systems and to quantify to what degree these changes have already been induced by climate change.
Jinkai Tan, Qiqiao Huang, and Sheng Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 53–69, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-53-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-53-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a deep learning architecture, multi-scale feature fusion (MFF), to improve the forecast skills of precipitations especially for heavy precipitations. MFF uses multi-scale receptive fields so that the movement features of precipitation systems are well captured. MFF uses the mechanism of discrete probability to reduce uncertainties and forecast errors so that heavy precipitations are produced.
Robert E. Kopp, Gregory G. Garner, Tim H. J. Hermans, Shantenu Jha, Praveen Kumar, Alexander Reedy, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Matteo Turilli, Tamsin L. Edwards, Jonathan M. Gregory, George Koubbe, Anders Levermann, Andre Merzky, Sophie Nowicki, Matthew D. Palmer, and Chris Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7461–7489, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Future sea-level rise projections exhibit multiple forms of uncertainty, all of which must be considered by scientific assessments intended to inform decision-making. The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) is a new software package intended to support assessments of global mean, regional, and extreme sea-level rise. An early version of FACTS supported the development of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report sea-level projections.
Gregory Duveiller, Mark Pickering, Joaquin Muñoz-Sabater, Luca Caporaso, Souhail Boussetta, Gianpaolo Balsamo, and Alessandro Cescatti
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7357–7373, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7357-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7357-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Some of our best tools to describe the state of the land system, including the intensity of heat waves, have a problem. The model currently assumes that the number of leaves in ecosystems always follows the same cycle. By using satellite observations of when leaves are present, we show that capturing the yearly changes in this cycle is important to avoid errors in estimating surface temperature. We show that this has strong implications for our capacity to describe heat waves across Europe.
Neil C. Swart, Torge Martin, Rebecca Beadling, Jia-Jia Chen, Christopher Danek, Matthew H. England, Riccardo Farneti, Stephen M. Griffies, Tore Hattermann, Judith Hauck, F. Alexander Haumann, André Jüling, Qian Li, John Marshall, Morven Muilwijk, Andrew G. Pauling, Ariaan Purich, Inga J. Smith, and Max Thomas
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7289–7309, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7289-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7289-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Current climate models typically do not include full representation of ice sheets. As the climate warms and the ice sheets melt, they add freshwater to the ocean. This freshwater can influence climate change, for example by causing more sea ice to form. In this paper we propose a set of experiments to test the influence of this missing meltwater from Antarctica using multiple different climate models.
Christina Asmus, Peter Hoffmann, Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Jürgen Böhner, and Diana Rechid
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7311–7337, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7311-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7311-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Irrigation modifies the land surface and soil conditions. The effects can be quantified using numerical climate models. Our study introduces a new irrigation parameterization, which simulates the effects of irrigation on land, atmosphere, and vegetation. We applied the parameterization and evaluated the results in terms of their physical consistency. We found an improvement in the model results in the 2 m temperature representation in comparison with observational data for our study.
Nanhong Xie, Tijian Wang, Xiaodong Xie, Xu Yue, Filippo Giorgi, Qian Zhang, Danyang Ma, Rong Song, Baiyao Xu, Shu Li, Bingliang Zhuang, Mengmeng Li, Min Xie, Natalya Andreeva Kilifarska, Georgi Gadzhev, and Reneta Dimitrova
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1733, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1733, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For the first time, we coupled a regional climate chemistry model RegCM-Chem with a dynamic vegetation model YIBs to create a regional climate-chemistry-ecology model RegCM-Chem-YIBs. We applied it to simulate climatic, chemical and ecological parameters in East Asia and fully validated it on a variety of observational data. The research results show that RegCM-Chem-YIBs model is a valuable tool for studying terrestrial carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry, and climate change in regional scale.
Michael Meier and Christof Bigler
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7171–7201, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7171-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7171-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed >2.3 million calibrations and 39 million projections of leaf coloration models, considering 21 models, 5 optimization algorithms, ≥7 sampling procedures, and 26 climate scenarios. Models based on temperature, day length, and leaf unfolding performed best, especially when calibrated with generalized simulated annealing and systematically balanced or stratified samples. Projected leaf coloration shifts between −13 and +20 days by 2080–2099.
Katharina Gallmeier, J. Xavier Prochaska, Peter Cornillon, Dimitris Menemenlis, and Madolyn Kelm
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7143–7170, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7143-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7143-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces an approach to evaluate numerical models of ocean circulation. We compare the structure of satellite-derived sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTa) instances determined by a machine learning algorithm at 10–80 km scales to those output by a high-resolution MITgcm run. The simulation over much of the ocean reproduces the observed distribution of SSTa patterns well. This general agreement, alongside a few notable exceptions, highlights the potential of this approach.
Jiachen Lu, Negin Nazarian, Melissa Hart, Scott Krayenhoff, and Alberto Martilli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2811, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2811, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study enhances urban canopy models by refining key assumptions. Simulations for various urban scenarios indicate discrepancies in turbulent transport efficiency for flow properties. We propose two modifications that involve characterizing diffusion coefficients for momentum and turbulent kinetic energy separately and introducing a physics-based "mass flux" term. These adjustments enhance the model's performance, offering more reliable temperature and surface flux estimates.
Angus Fotherby, Harold J. Bradbury, Jennifer L. Druhan, and Alexandra V. Turchyn
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7059–7074, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7059-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7059-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We demonstrate how, given a simulation of fluid and rock interacting, we can emulate the system using machine learning. This means that, for a given initial condition, we can predict the final state, avoiding the simulation step once the model has been trained. We present a workflow for applying this approach to any fluid–rock simulation and showcase two applications to different fluid–rock simulations. This approach has applications for improving model development and sensitivity analyses.
Rose V. Palermo, J. Taylor Perron, Jason M. Soderblom, Samuel P. D. Birch, Alexander G. Hayes, and Andrew D. Ashton
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-223, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-223, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Models of rocky coastal erosion help us understand the controls on coastal morphology and evolution. In this paper, we present a simplified model of coastline erosion by either uniform erosion processes where coastline erosion is constant or wave-driven erosion where coastline erosion is a function of the wave power. This model can be used to evaluate how coastline changes reflect climate, sea level history, material properties, and the relative influence of different erosional processes.
Yaqi Wang, Lanning Wang, Juan Feng, Zhenya Song, Qizhong Wu, and Huaqiong Cheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6857–6873, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6857-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6857-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, to noticeably improve precipitation simulation in steep mountains, we propose a sub-grid parameterization scheme for the topographic vertical motion in CAM5-SE to revise the original vertical velocity by adding the topographic vertical motion. The dynamic lifting effect of topography is extended from the lowest layer to multiple layers, thus improving the positive deviations of precipitation simulation in high-altitude regions and negative deviations in low-altitude regions.
Jon Seddon, Ag Stephens, Matthew S. Mizielinski, Pier Luigi Vidale, and Malcolm J. Roberts
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6689–6700, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6689-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6689-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The PRIMAVERA project aimed to develop a new generation of advanced global climate models. The large volume of data generated was uploaded to a central analysis facility (CAF) and was analysed by 100 PRIMAVERA scientists there. We describe how the PRIMAVERA project used the CAF's facilities to enable users to analyse this large dataset. We believe that similar, multi-institute, big-data projects could also use a CAF to efficiently share, organise and analyse large volumes of data.
Maria-Theresia Pelz, Markus Schartau, Christopher J. Somes, Vanessa Lampe, and Thomas Slawig
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6609–6634, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6609-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6609-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Kernel density estimators (KDE) approximate the probability density of a data set without the assumption of an underlying distribution. We used the solution of the diffusion equation, and a new approximation of the optimal smoothing parameter build on two pilot estimation steps, to construct such a KDE best suited for typical characteristics of geoscientific data. The resulting KDE is insensitive to noise and well resolves multimodal data structures as well as boundary-close data.
Benjamin S. Grandey, Zhi Yang Koh, Dhrubajyoti Samanta, Benjamin P. Horton, Justin Dauwels, and Lock Yue Chew
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6593–6608, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6593-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6593-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Global climate models are susceptible to spurious trends known as drift. Fortunately, drift can be corrected when analysing data produced by models. To explore the uncertainty associated with drift correction, we develop a new method: Monte Carlo drift correction. For historical simulations of thermosteric sea level rise, drift uncertainty is relatively large. When analysing data susceptible to drift, researchers should consider drift uncertainty.
Michael Sigmond, James Anstey, Vivek Arora, Ruth Digby, Nathan Gillett, Viatcheslav Kharin, William Merryfield, Catherine Reader, John Scinocca, Neil Swart, John Virgin, Carsten Abraham, Jason Cole, Nicolas Lambert, Woo-Sung Lee, Yongxiao Liang, Elizaveta Malinina, Landon Rieger, Knut von Salzen, Christian Seiler, Clint Seinen, Andrew Shao, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Libo Wang, and Duo Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6553–6591, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6553-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6553-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new activity which aims to organize the analysis of biases in the Canadian Earth System model (CanESM) in a systematic manner. Results of this “Analysis for Development” (A4D) activity includes a new CanESM version, CanESM5.1, which features substantial improvements regarding the simulation of dust and stratospheric temperatures, a second CanESM5.1 variant with reduced climate sensitivity, and insights into potential avenues to reduce various other model biases.
Sabine Doktorowski, Jan Kretzschmar, Johannes Quaas, Marc Salzmann, and Odran Sourdeval
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-34, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-34, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
Especially over the mid-latitudes precipiation is mainly formed via the ice phase. In this study we focus on the initial snow formation process in the ICON-GCM, the aggregation process. We use a stochastical approach for the aggregation parameterization and investigate the influence in the ICON-GCM. Therefore, a distribution function of cloud ice is created, which is evaluated with satellite data. The new approach leads to a cloud ice loss and to an improvement of the process rate bias.
Shuaiqi Tang, Adam C. Varble, Jerome D. Fast, Kai Zhang, Peng Wu, Xiquan Dong, Fan Mei, Mikhail Pekour, Joseph C. Hardin, and Po-Lun Ma
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6355–6376, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6355-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To assess the ability of Earth system model (ESM) predictions, we developed a tool called ESMAC Diags to understand how aerosols, clouds, and aerosol–cloud interactions are represented in ESMs. This paper describes its version 2 functionality. We compared the model predictions with measurements taken by planes, ships, satellites, and ground instruments over four regions across the world. Results show that this new tool can help identify model problems and guide future development of ESMs.
Katie R. Blackford, Matthew Kasoar, Chantelle Burton, Eleanor Burke, Iain Colin Prentice, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2399, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2399, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Peatlands are globally important stores of carbon, which are being increasingly threatened by wildfires with knock-on effects on the climate system. Here we introduce a novel peat fire parameterisation in the Northern high latitudes to the INFERNO global fire model. Representing peat fires increases annual burnt area across the high latitudes, alongside improvements in how we capture year-to-year variation in burning and emissions.
Xinzhu Yu, Li Liu, Chao Sun, Qingu Jiang, Biao Zhao, Zhiyuan Zhang, Hao Yu, and Bin Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6285–6308, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6285-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6285-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we propose a new common, flexible, and efficient parallel I/O framework for earth system modeling based on C-Coupler2.0. CIOFC1.0 can handle data I/O in parallel and provides a configuration file format that enables users to conveniently change the I/O configurations. It can automatically make grid and time interpolation, output data with an aperiodic time series, and accelerate data I/O when the field size is large.
Toshiki Matsushima, Seiya Nishizawa, and Shin-ichiro Shima
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6211–6245, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6211-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6211-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A particle-based cloud model was developed for meter- to submeter-scale resolution in cloud simulations. Our new cloud model's computational performance is superior to a bin method and comparable to a two-moment bulk method. A highlight of this study is the 2 m resolution shallow cloud simulations over an area covering ∼10 km2. This model allows for studying turbulence and cloud physics at spatial scales that overlap with those covered by direct numerical simulations and field studies.
Cited articles
Allen, M. R. and Ingram, W. J.: Constraints on future changes in climate and
the hydrologic cycle, Nature, 419, 224–232, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01092, 2002. a
Alpert, J. C., Kanamitsu, M., Caplan, P. M., Sela, J. G., White, G. H., and
Kalnay, E.: Mountain induced gravity wave drag parameterization in the NMC
medium-range forecast model, 726–733, Am. Meterool. Soc., 1988. a
Amaya, D. J., DeFlorio, M. J., Miller, A. J., and Xie, S.-P.: WES feedback
and the Atlantic Meridional Mode: observations and CMIP5 comparisons,
Clim. Dynam., 49, 1665–1679, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3411-1, 2017. a
Andrews, T. and Forster, P. M.: CO2 forcing induces semi-direct effects
with consequences for climate feedback interpretations, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 35, L04802, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032273, 2008. a, b
Arrhenius, S.: On the influence of carbonic acid in the air upon the
temperature of the ground, Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science, 41, 251, 1896. a
Bi, D., Dix, M., Marsland, S., O'Farrell, S., Rashid, H., Uotila, P., Hirst,
T., Kowalczyk, E., Golebiewski, M., Sullivan, A., Yan, H., Hannah, N.,
Franklin, C., Sun, Z., Vohralik, P., Watterson, I., Zhou, X., Fiedler, R.,
Collier, M., Ma, Y., Noonan, J., Stevens, L., Uhe, P., Zhu, H., Griffies, S.,
Hill, R., Harris, C., and Puri, K.: The ACCESS Coupled Model:
Description, Control Climate and Evaluation, Aust. Meteorol.
Ocean., 63, 41–64, 2013. a
Block, K., Schneider, F. A., Mülmenstädt, J., Salzmann, M., and Quaas, J.:
Climate models disagree on the sign of total radiative feedback in the
Arctic, Tellus A, 72, 1–14,
https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2019.1696139,
2020. a, b
Bony, S., Colman, R., Kattsov, V. M., Allan, R. P., Bretherton, C. S.,
Dufresne, J. L., Hall, A., Hallegatte, S., Holland, M. M., Ingram, W.,
Randall, D. A., Soden, B. J., Tselioudis, G., and Webb, M. J.: How well do
we understand and evaluate climate change feedback processes?, J.
Climate, 19, 3445–3482, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3819.1, 2006. a
Businger, J. A., Wyngaard, J. C., Izumi, Y., and Bradley, E. F.: Flux-Profile
Relationships in the Atmospheric Surface Layer, J. Atmos.
Sci., 28, 181–189,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1971)028<0181:FPRITA>2.0.CO;2, 1971. a
Cai, W., Whetton, P. H., and Karoly, D. J.: The Response of the Antarctic
Oscillation to Increasing and Stabilized Atmospheric CO2, J. Climate, 16, 1525–1538, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442-16.10.1525, 2003. a, b
Cai, W., Santoso, A., Wang, G., Yeh, S.-W., An, S.-I., Cobb, K. M., Collins,
M., Guilyardi, E., Jin, F.-F., Kug, J.-S., Lengaigne, M., McPhaden, M. J.,
Takahashi, K., Timmermann, A., Vecchi, G., Watanabe, M., and Wu, L.: ENSO
and greenhouse warming, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 849–859,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2743, 2015. a, b
Caldwell, P. M., Zelinka, M. D., Taylor, K. E., and Marvel, K.: Quantifying the
Sources of Intermodel Spread in Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity,
J. Climate, 29, 513–524, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0352.1, 2016. a
Callendar, G.: The Artificial Production of Carbon Dioxide, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 64, 223–240,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49706427503, 1938. a
Cess, R. D., Potter, G. L., Blanchet, J. P., Boer, G. J., Ghan, S. J., Kiehl,
J. T., Le Treut, H., Li, Z.-X., Liang, X.-Z., Mitchell, J. F. B., Morcrette,
J.-J., Randall, D. A., Riches, M. R., Roeckner, E., Schlese, U., Slingo, A.,
Taylor, K. E., Washington, W. M., Wetherald, R. T., and Yagai, I.:
Interpretation of Cloud-Climate Feedback as Produced by 14
Atmospheric General Circulation Models, Science, 245, 513–516,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.245.4917.513, 1989. a, b
Cess, R. D., Potter, G. L., Blanchet, J. P., Boer, G. J., and Del Genio, A. D.:
Intercomparison and interpretation of climate feedback processes in 19
atmospheric general circulation models, J. Geophys. Res., 95,
16601–16615, https://doi.org/10.1029/JD095iD10p16601, 1990. a
Chung, E.-S. and Soden, B. J.: An Assessment of Direct Radiative Forcing,
Radiative Adjustments, and Radiative Feedbacks in Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere
Models, J. Climate, 28, 4152–4170, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00436.1,
2015. a
Collins, M., An, S.-I., Cai, W., Ganachaud, A., Guilyardi, E., Jin, F.-F.,
Jochum, M., Lengaigne, M., Power, S., Timmermann, A., Vecchi, G., and
Wittenberg, A.: The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific
Ocean and El Niño, Nat. Geosci., 3, 391–397,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo868, 2010. a
Collins, W. D., Ramaswamy, V., Schwarzkopf, M. D., Sun, Y., Portmann, R. W.,
Fu, Q., Casanova, S. E. B., Dufresne, J.-L., Fillmore, D. W., Forster, P.
M. D., Galin, V. Y., Gohar, L. K., Ingram, W. J., Kratz, D. P., Lefebvre,
M.-P., Li, J., Marquet, P., Oinas, V., Tsushima, Y., Uchiyama, T., and Zhong,
W. Y.: Radiative forcing by well-mixed greenhouse gases: Estimates from
climate models in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), J. Geophys. Res., 111, D14317,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006713, 2006. a, b
Cubasch, U. and Cess, R. D.: Processes and modeling. Climate Change: The
IPCC Scientific Assessment, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1990. a
DiNezio, P. N., Kirtman, B. P., Clement, A. C., Lee, S.-K., Vecchi, G. A.,
and Wittenberg, A.: Mean Climate Controls on the Simulated Response of
ENSO to Increasing Greenhouse Gases, J. Climate, 25, 7399–7420,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00494.1, 2012. a
Dix, M., Vohralik, P., Bi, D., Rashid, H., Marsland, S., O’Farrell, S.,
Uotila, P., Hirst, T., Kowalczyk, E., Sullivan, A., Yan, H., Franklin, C.,
Sun, Z., Watterson, I., Collier, M., Noonan, J., Rotstayn, L., Stevens, S.,
Uhe, P., and Puri, K.: The ACCESS coupled model: description, control
climate and evaluation, Aust. Meteorol. Ocean.,
63, 83–99, 2013. a
Drijfhout, S., van Oldenborgh, G. J., and Cimatoribus, A.: Is a Decline of
AMOC Causing the Warming Hole above the North Atlantic in
Observed and Modeled Warming Patterns?, J. Climate, 25,
8373–8379, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00490.1, 2012. a, b
Dufresne, J.-L. and Bony, S.: An Assessment of the Primary Sources of Spread
of Global Warming Estimates from Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean Models, J.
Climate, 21, 5135–5144, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2239.1, 2008. a
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016. a
Ferrier, B. S., Jin, Y., Lin, Y., Black, T., Rogers, E., and DiMego, G.:
Implementation of a new grid-scale cloud and precipitation scheme in the
NCEP Eta Model, 280–283, Am. Meteorol. Soc., San Antonio,TX, 2002. a
Figueroa, S. N., Kubota, P. Y., Grell, G., Morrison, H., Bonatti, J. P.,
Barros, S., Fernandez, J. P., Ramirez, E., Siqueira, L., Satyamurti, P.,
Luzia, G., da Silva, J., da Silva, J., Pendharkar, J., Capistrano, V. B.,
Alvin, D., Enore, D., Denis, F., Rozante, J. R., Cavalcanti, I., Barbosa, H.,
Mendes, C., and Tarassova, T.: The Brazilian Global Atmospheric
Model (BAM). Part I: Performance for Tropical Rainfall forecasting and
sensitivity to convective schemes and horizontal resolutions, Weather
Forecast., 31, 1547–1572, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-16-0062.1, 2016. a, b
Foley, J. A., Prentice, I. C., Ramankutty, N., Levis, S., Pollard, D., Sitch,
S., and Haxeltine, A.: An integrated biosphere model of land surface
processes, terrestrial carbon balance, and vegetation dynamics, vol. 10,
1996. a
Fyfe, J. C., Boer, G. J., and Flato, G. M.: The Arctic and Antarctic
oscillations and their projected changes under global warming, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 26, 1601–1604, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL900317, 1999. a, b
Gastineau, G. and Soden, B. J.: Model projected changes of extreme wind
events in response to global warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L10810,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL037500, 2009. a
Good, P., Andrews, T., Chadwick, R., Dufresne, J.-L., Gregory, J. M., Lowe, J. A., Schaller, N., and Shiogama, H.: nonlinMIP contribution to CMIP6: model intercomparison project for non-linear mechanisms: physical basis, experimental design and analysis principles (v1.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4019–4028, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4019-2016, 2016. a
Gregory, J. and Webb, M.: Tropospheric Adjustment Induces a Cloud Component
in CO2 Forcing, J. Climate, 21, 58–71,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1834.1, 2008. a, b
Gregory, J. M., Ingram, W. J., Palmer, M. A., Jones, G. S., Stott, P. A.,
Thorpe, R. B., Lowe, J. A., Jonhs, T. C., and Williams, K. D.: A new method
for diagnosing radiative forcing and climate sensitivity, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 31, L03205, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL018747, 2004. a, b, c, d
Grell, G. A. and Dévényi, D.: A generalized approach to parameterizing
convection combining ensemble and data assimilation techniques:
Parameterizing convection combining ensemble and data
assimilation techniques, 29, 38-1–38-4, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL015311,
2002. a, b
Griffies, S. M., Harrison, M. J., Pacanowski, Ronald, C., and Rosati, A.: A
Technical Guide to MOM4, GFDL Ocean Group Technical Report No. 5,
NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, available at:
https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov (last access: 1 June 2016), 2004. a
Grimm, A. M. and Tedeschi, R. G.: ENSO and Extreme Rainfall Events in South
America, J. Climate, 22, 1589–1609, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2429.1,
2009. a
Harshvardhan, Davies, R., Randall, D. A., and Corsetti, T. G.: A fast
radiation parameterization for atmospheric circulation models, J.
Geophys. Res., 92, 1009, https://doi.org/10.1029/JD092iD01p01009, 1987. a
Held, I. M. and Soden, B. J.: Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to
Global Warming, J. Climate, 19, 5686–5699, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3990.1,
2006. a, b, c, d
Holtslag, A. A. M. and Boville, B. A.: Local versus nonlocal boundary-layer
diffusion in a global climate model, J. Climate, 6, 1825–1842, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1993)006<1825:LVNBLD>2.0.CO;2, 1993. a
Huang, P. and Xie, S.-P.: Mechanisms of change in ENSO-induced tropical
Pacific rainfall variability in a warming climate, Nat. Geosci., 8,
922–926, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2571, 2015. a
Iacono, M. J., Delamere, J. S., Mlawer, E. J., Shephard, M. W., Clough, S. A.,
and Collins, W. D.: Radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases:
Calculations with the AER radiative transfer models, J. Geophys.
Res., 113, D13103, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD009944, 2008. a, b
Jiménez, P. A., Dudhia, J., González-Rouco, J. F., Navarro, J.,
Montávez, J. P., and García-Bustamante, E.: A Revised Scheme for
the WRF Surface Layer Formulation, Mon. Weather Rev., 140, 898–918,
https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00056.1, 2012. a, b, c
Jonko, A. K., Shell, K. M., Sanderson, B. M., and Danabasoglu, G.: Climate
Feedbacks in CCSM3 under Changing CO2 Forcing. Part II:
Variation of Climate Feedbacks and Sensitivity with Forcing, J.
Climate, 26, 2784–2795, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00479.1, 2013. a
Kanamitsu, M., Ebisuzaki, W., Woollen, J., Yang, S.-K., Hnilo, J. J., Fiorino,
M., and Potter, G. L.: NCEP–DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2), B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 83, 1631–1643,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-83-11-1631, 2002. a
Kaplan, L. D.: The Influence of Carbon Dioxide Variations on the Atmospheric
Heat Balance, Tellus, 12, 204–208, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1960.tb01301.x,
1960. a
Kayano, M. T., Rao, V. B., and Moura, A. D.: Tropical circulations and the
associated rainfall anomalies during two contrasting years, J.
Climatology, 8, 477–488, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370080504, 1988. a
Kubota, P. Y.: Variability of stored energy in the surface and its impact on
the definition of the precipitation pattern over South America
(Variablidade de energia armazenada na superfície e seu impacto na
definição do padrão de precipitação na América do
Sul), PhD thesis, National Institute for Space Research (INPE),
available at:
http://mtc-m16d.sid.inpe.br/col/sid.inpe.br/mtc-m19/2012/08.02.02.42/doc/publicacao.pdf (last access: 13 January 2018),
2012. a
Liu, H., Wang, C., Lee, S.-K., and Enfield, D.: Atlantic Warm Pool
Variability in the CMIP5 Simulations, J. Climate, 26,
5315–5336, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00556.1, 2013. a
Liu, Z., Vavrus, S., He, F., Wen, N., and Zhong, Y.: Rethinking Tropical
Ocean Response to Global Warming: The Enhanced Equatorial Warming*, J. Climate, 18, 4684–4700, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3579.1, 2005. a
Manabe, S. and Stouffer, R. J.: Sensitivity of a global climate model to an
increase of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, J. Geophys.
Res., 85, 5529–5554, https://doi.org/10.1029/JC085iC10p05529, 1980. a, b
Manabe, S. and Wetherald, R. T.: Thermal Equilibrium of the Atmosphere with a
Given Distribution of Relative Humidity, J. Atmos. Sci.,
24, 241–259, 1967. a
Manabe, S. and Wetherald, R. T.: The Effects of Doubling the CO2
Concentration on the climate of a General Circulation Model, J. Atmos. Sci., 32, 3–15,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1975)032<0003:TEODTC>2.0.CO;2, 1975. a
Marengo, J. A. and Hastenrath, S.: Case Studies of Extreme Climatic
Events in the Amazon Basin, J. Climate, 6, 617–627,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1993)006<0617:CSOECE>2.0.CO;2, 1993. a
Marvel, K. and Bonfils, C.: Identifying external influences on global
precipitation, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 110,
19301–19306, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1314382110, 2013. a
McCarthy, G. D., Smeed, D. A., Johns, W. E., Frajka-Williams, E., Moat,
B. I., Rayner, D., Baringer, M. O., Meinen, C. S., Collins, J., and Bryden,
H. L.: Measuring the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at
26∘ N, Prog. Oceanogr., 130, 91–111,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2014.10.006, 2015. a
Mellor, G. L. and Yamada, T.: Development of a turbulence closure model for
geophysical fluid problems, Rev. Geophys., 20, 851,
https://doi.org/10.1029/RG020i004p00851, 1982. a
Miller, R. L., Schmidt, G. A., and Shindell, D. T.: Forced annular variations
in the 20th century Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth
Assessment Report models, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D18101,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006323, 2006. a, b
Morrison, H., Curry, J. A., and Khvorostyanov, V. I.: A New Double-Moment
Microphysics Parameterization for Application in Cloud and Climate Models.
Part I: Description, J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 1665–1677,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS3446.1, 2005. a
Nobre, P. and Shukla, J.: Variations of Sea Surface Temperature, Wind
Stress, and Rainfall over the Tropical Atlantic and South
America, J. Climate, 9, 2464–2479,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<2464:VOSSTW>2.0.CO;2, 1996. a
Nobre, P., Siqueira, L. S. P., de Almeida, R. A. F., Malagutti, M., Giarolla,
E., Castelão, G. P., Bottino, M. J., Kubota, P., Figueroa, S. N., Costa,
M. C., Baptista, M., Irber, L., and Marcondes, G. G.: Climate Simulation
and Change in the Brazilian Climate Model, J. Climate, 26,
6716–6732, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00580.1, 2013. a, b
Park, S. and Bretherton, C. S.: The University of Washington Shallow Convection
and Moist Turbulence Schemes and Their Impact on Climate Simulations with the
Community Atmosphere Model, 22, 3449–3469, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2557.1,
2009. a
Pincus, R., Forster, P. M., and Stevens, B.: The Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP): experimental protocol for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3447–3460, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3447-2016, 2016. a
Pithan, F. and Mauritsen, T.: Arctic amplification dominated by temperature
feedbacks in contemporary climate models, Nat. Geosci., 7, 181–184,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2071, 2014. a
Plass, G. N.: The Carbon Dioxide Theory of Climatic Change, Tellus, 8,
140–154, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1956.tb01206.x, 1956. a
Richter, I., Xie, S.-P., Behera, S. K., Doi, T., and Masumoto, Y.: Equatorial
Atlantic variability and its relation to mean state biases in CMIP5,
Clim. Dynam., 42, 171–188, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1624-5, 2014. a
Rieger, V. S., Dietmüller, S., and Ponater, M.: Can feedback analysis be used
to uncover the physical origin of climate sensitivity and efficacy
differences?, Clim. Dynam., 49, 2831–2844,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3476-x, 2017. a
Seager, R., Naik, N., and Vecchi, G. A.: Thermodynamic and Dynamic
Mechanisms for Large-Scale Changes in the Hydrological Cycle in
Response to Global Warming*, J. Climate, 23, 4651–4668,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3655.1,
2010. a
Shell, K. M., Kiehl, J. T., and Shields, C. A.: Using the radiative kernel
technique to calculate climate feedbacks in NCAR's Community
Atmospheric Model, J. Climate, 21, 2269–2282,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI2044.1, 2008. a
Slingo, J. M.: The Development and Verification of A Cloud Prediction Scheme
For the ECMWF Model, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,
113, 899–927, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49711347710, 1987. a
Soden, B. and Held, I.: An Assessment of Climate Feedbacks in Coupled Ocean
– Atmosphere Models, J. Climate, 19, 3354–3360,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI9028.1, 2006. a, b, c, d
Soden, B. J., Broccoli, A. J., and Hemler, R. S.: On the use of cloud forcing
to estimate cloud feedback, J. Climate, 17, 3661–3665,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<3661:OTUOCF>2.0.CO;2, 2004. a, b, c
Tarasova, T. A. and Fomin, B. A.: The Use of New Parameterizations for
Gaseous Absorption in the CLIRAD-SW Solar Radiation Code for Models,
J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech., 24, 1157–1162,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH2023.1, 2007. a
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An overview of CMIP5 and
the experiment design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93,
485–498, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1, 2012. a
Tiedtke, M.: The sensitivity of the time mean large-scale flow to cumulus
convection in the ECMWF model. Workshop on Convection in Large-Scale
Numerical Model, 297–316, ECMWF, Reading, UK, 1984. a
Veiga, S. F., Nobre, P., Giarolla, E., Capistrano, V., Baptista Jr., M., Marquez, A. L., Figueroa, S. N., Bonatti, J. P., Kubota, P., and Nobre, C. A.: The Brazilian Earth System Model ocean–atmosphere (BESM-OA) version 2.5: evaluation of its CMIP5 historical simulation, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1613–1642, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1613-2019, 2019. a, b, c, d
Vial, J., Dufresne, J.-L., and Bony, S.: On the interpretation of inter-model
spread in CMIP5 climate sensitivity estimates, Clim. Dynam., 41,
3339–3362, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1725-9, 2013. a, b, c, d
Webster, S., Brown, A. R., Cameron, D. R., and Jones, C. P.: Improvements to the
representation of orography in the Met Office Unified Model, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 129, 1989–2010,
https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.02.133, 2003. a
Xie, S.-P., Deser, C., Vecchi, G. A., Collins, M., Delworth, T. L., Hall, A.,
Hawkins, E., Johnson, N. C., Cassou, C., Giannini, A., and Watanabe, M.:
Towards predictive understanding of regional climate change, Nat. Clim.
Change, 5, 921–930, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2689, 2015. a
Xue, Y., Sellers, P. J., Kinter, J. L., and Shukla, J.: A simplified
biosphere model for global climate studies, J. Climate, 4, 345–364,
1991. a
Short summary
This work represents the product of our recent efforts to develop a Brazilian climate model and helps address some scientific issues on the frontier of knowledge (e.g., cloud feedback studies). The BESM results show climate sensitivity and thermodynamical responses similar to a CMIP5 ensemble. More than that, BESM has the objective of being an additional climate model with the ability to reproduce changes that are physically understood in order to study the global climate system.
This work represents the product of our recent efforts to develop a Brazilian climate model and...