Articles | Volume 13, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-537-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-537-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model description paper
| 
11 Feb 2020
Model description paper |
| 11 Feb 2020
| 11 Feb 2020
FORests and HYdrology under Climate Change in Switzerland v1.0: a spatially distributed model combining hydrology and forest dynamics
Matthias J. R. Speich
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Dynamic Macroecology, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
Hydrological Forecasts, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
Biometry and Environmental Systems Analysis, University of Freiburg, 79085 Freiburg im Briesgau, Germany
Institute of Sustainable Development, Zurich University of Applied Sciences (ZHAW), 8401 Winterthur, Switzerland
Massimiliano Zappa
Hydrological Forecasts, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
Marc Scherstjanoi
Dynamic Macroecology, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
Institute of Climate-Smart Agriculture, Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institute, 38116 Braunschweig, Germany
Heike Lischke
Dynamic Macroecology, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
Related authors
Matthias J. R. Speich, Heike Lischke, and Massimiliano Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4097–4124, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4097-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4097-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
To simulate the water balance of, e.g., a forest plot, it is important to estimate the maximum volume of water available to plants. This depends on soil properties and the average depth of roots. Rooting depth has proven challenging to estimate. Here, we applied a model assuming that plants dimension their roots to optimize their carbon budget. We compared its results with values obtained by calibrating a dynamic water balance model. In most cases, there is good agreement between both methods.
Basil Kraft, Michael Schirmer, William H. Aeberhard, Massimiliano Zappa, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Lukas Gudmundsson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-993, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-993, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses deep learning to predict spatially contiguous water runoff in Switzerland from 1962–2023. It outperforms traditional models, requiring less data and computational power. Key findings include increased dry years and summer water scarcity. This method offers significant advancements in water monitoring.
Marvin Höge, Martina Kauzlaric, Rosi Siber, Ursula Schönenberger, Pascal Horton, Jan Schwanbeck, Marius Günter Floriancic, Daniel Viviroli, Sibylle Wilhelm, Anna E. Sikorska-Senoner, Nans Addor, Manuela Brunner, Sandra Pool, Massimiliano Zappa, and Fabrizio Fenicia
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5755–5784, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5755-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5755-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
CAMELS-CH is an open large-sample hydro-meteorological data set that covers 331 catchments in hydrologic Switzerland from 1 January 1981 to 31 December 2020. It comprises (a) daily data of river discharge and water level as well as meteorologic variables like precipitation and temperature; (b) yearly glacier and land cover data; (c) static attributes of, e.g, topography or human impact; and (d) catchment delineations. CAMELS-CH enables water and climate research and modeling at catchment level.
Louise J. Slater, Louise Arnal, Marie-Amélie Boucher, Annie Y.-Y. Chang, Simon Moulds, Conor Murphy, Grey Nearing, Guy Shalev, Chaopeng Shen, Linda Speight, Gabriele Villarini, Robert L. Wilby, Andrew Wood, and Massimiliano Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1865–1889, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hybrid forecasting systems combine data-driven methods with physics-based weather and climate models to improve the accuracy of predictions for meteorological and hydroclimatic events such as rainfall, temperature, streamflow, floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, or atmospheric rivers. We review recent developments in hybrid forecasting and outline key challenges and opportunities in the field.
Deborah Zani, Veiko Lehsten, and Heike Lischke
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4913–4940, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4913-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4913-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The prediction of species migration under rapid climate change remains uncertain. In this paper, we evaluate the importance of the mechanisms underlying plant migration and increase the performance in the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GM 1.0. The improved model will allow us to understand past vegetation dynamics and predict the future redistribution of species in a context of global change.
Elham Rouholahnejad Freund, Massimiliano Zappa, and James W. Kirchner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5015–5025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5015-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5015-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Evapotranspiration (ET) is the largest flux from the land to the atmosphere and thus contributes to Earth's energy and water balance. Due to its impact on atmospheric dynamics, ET is a key driver of droughts and heatwaves. In this paper, we demonstrate how averaging over land surface heterogeneity contributes to substantial overestimates of ET fluxes. We also demonstrate how one can correct for the effects of small-scale heterogeneity without explicitly representing it in land surface models.
Marco Dal Molin, Mario Schirmer, Massimiliano Zappa, and Fabrizio Fenicia
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1319–1345, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1319-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1319-2020, 2020
Manuela I. Brunner, Daniel Farinotti, Harry Zekollari, Matthias Huss, and Massimiliano Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4471–4489, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4471-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4471-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
River flow regimes are expected to change and so are extreme flow regimes. We propose two methods for estimating extreme flow regimes and show on a data set from Switzerland how these extreme regimes are expected to change. Our results show that changes in low- and high-flow regimes are distinct for rainfall- and melt-dominated regions. Our findings provide guidance in water resource planning and management.
Manuela I. Brunner, Katharina Liechti, and Massimiliano Zappa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2311–2323, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2311-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2311-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The 2018 drought event had severe ecological, economic, and social impacts. How extreme was it in Switzerland? We addressed this question by looking at different types of drought, including meteorological, hydrological, agricultural, and groundwater drought, and at the two characteristics deficit and deficit duration. The return period estimates depended on the region, variable, and return period considered.
Veiko Lehsten, Michael Mischurow, Erik Lindström, Dörte Lehsten, and Heike Lischke
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 893–908, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-893-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-893-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
To assess the effect of climate on vegetation, dynamic vegetation models simulate their response e.g. to climate change. Most currently used dynamic vegetation models ignore the fact that for colonization of a new area not only do the climatic conditions have to be suitable, but seeds also need to arrive at the site to allow the species to migrate there. In this paper we are developing a novel method which allows us to simulate migration within dynamic vegetation models even at large scale.
Samuel Monhart, Massimiliano Zappa, Christoph Spirig, Christoph Schär, and Konrad Bogner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 493–513, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-493-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-493-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Subseasonal streamflow forecasts have received increasing attention during the past decade, but their performance in alpine catchments is still largely unknown. We analyse the effect of a statistical correction technique applied to the driving meteorological forecasts on the performance of the resulting streamflow forecasts. The study shows the benefits of such hydrometeorological ensemble prediction systems and highlights the importance of snow-related processes for subseasonal predictions.
Manuel Antonetti, Christoph Horat, Ioannis V. Sideris, and Massimiliano Zappa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 19–40, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-19-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-19-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
To predict timing and magnitude peak run-off, meteorological and calibrated hydrological models are commonly coupled. A flash-flood forecasting chain is presented based on a process-based run-off generation module with no need for calibration. This chain has been evaluated using data for the Emme catchment (Switzerland). The outcomes of this study show that operational flash predictions in ungauged basins can benefit from the use of information on run-off processes.
Peter Stucki, Moritz Bandhauer, Ulla Heikkilä, Ole Rössler, Massimiliano Zappa, Lucas Pfister, Melanie Salvisberg, Paul Froidevaux, Olivia Martius, Luca Panziera, and Stefan Brönnimann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2717–2739, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2717-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2717-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A catastrophic flood south of the Alps in 1868 is assessed using documents and the earliest example of high-resolution weather simulation. Simulated weather dynamics agree well with observations and damage reports. Simulated peak water levels are biased. Low forest cover did not cause the flood, but such a paradigm was used to justify afforestation. Supported by historical methods, such numerical simulations allow weather events from past centuries to be used for modern hazard and risk analyses.
Manuel Antonetti and Massimiliano Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4425–4447, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4425-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4425-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We developed 60 modelling chain combinations based on either experimentalists' (bottom-up) or modellers' (top-down) thinking and forced them with data of increasing accuracy. Results showed that the differences in performance arising from the forcing data were due to compensation effects. We also found that modellers' and experimentalists' concept of
model realismdiffers, and the level of detail a model should have to reproduce the processes expected must be agreed in advance.
Matthias J. R. Speich, Heike Lischke, and Massimiliano Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4097–4124, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4097-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4097-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
To simulate the water balance of, e.g., a forest plot, it is important to estimate the maximum volume of water available to plants. This depends on soil properties and the average depth of roots. Rooting depth has proven challenging to estimate. Here, we applied a model assuming that plants dimension their roots to optimize their carbon budget. We compared its results with values obtained by calibrating a dynamic water balance model. In most cases, there is good agreement between both methods.
Christoph Horat, Manuel Antonetti, Katharina Liechti, Pirmin Kaufmann, and Massimiliano Zappa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-119, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-119, 2018
Publication in NHESS not foreseen
Short summary
Short summary
Two forecasting chains are forced by information from numerical weather predictions. The framework presented in the companion paper by Antonetti et al. has been set up for the Swiss Verzasca basin. The forecasts obtained with the uncalibrated RGM-PRO model are compared to forecasts yielded by the calibrated PREVAH-HRU model. Results shows that the uncalibrated model is able to compete with the calibrated operational prediction system and was consistently superior for
high-flow situations.
Love Råman Vinnå, Alfred Wüest, Massimiliano Zappa, Gabriel Fink, and Damien Bouffard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 31–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-31-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-31-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Responses of inland waters to climate change vary on global and regional scales. Shifts in river discharge regimes act as positive and negative feedbacks in influencing water temperature. The extent of this effect on warming is controlled by the change in river discharge and lake hydraulic residence time. A shift of deep penetrating river intrusions from summer towards winter can potentially counteract the otherwise negative climate effects on deep-water oxygen content.
Konrad Bogner, Katharina Liechti, and Massimiliano Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5493–5502, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5493-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5493-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The enhanced availability of many different weather prediction systems nowadays makes it very difficult for flood and water resource managers to choose the most reliable and accurate forecast. In order to circumvent this problem of choice, different approaches for combining this information have been applied at the Sihl River (CH) and the results have been verified. The outcome of this study highlights the importance of forecast combination in order to improve the quality of forecast systems.
Manuel Antonetti, Rahel Buss, Simon Scherrer, Michael Margreth, and Massimiliano Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2929–2945, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2929-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2929-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated three automatic mapping approaches of dominant runoff processes (DRPs) with different complexity using similarity measures and synthetic runoff simulations. The most complex DRP maps were the most similar to the reference maps. Runoff simulations derived from the simpler DRP maps were more uncertain due to inaccuracies in the input data and rather coarse simplifications in the mapping criteria. It would thus be worthwhile trying to obtain DRP maps that are as realistic as possible.
Lieke Melsen, Adriaan Teuling, Paul Torfs, Massimiliano Zappa, Naoki Mizukami, Martyn Clark, and Remko Uijlenhoet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2207–2226, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2207-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2207-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we investigated the sensitivity of a large-domain hydrological model for spatial and temporal resolution. We evaluated the results on a mesoscale catchment in Switzerland. Our results show that the model was hardly sensitive for the spatial resolution, which implies that spatial variability is likely underestimated. Our results provide a motivation to improve the representation of spatial variability in hydrological models in order to increase their credibility on a smaller scale.
Michal Jenicek, Jan Seibert, Massimiliano Zappa, Maria Staudinger, and Tobias Jonas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 859–874, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-859-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-859-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We quantified how long snowmelt affects runoff, and we estimated the sensitivity of catchments to changes in snowpack. This is relevant as the increase of air temperature might cause decreased snow storage. We used time series from 14 catchments in Switzerland. On average, a decrease of maximum snow storage by 10 % caused a decrease of minimum discharge in July by 2 to 9 %. The results showed a higher sensitivity of summer low flow to snow in alpine catchments compared to pre-alpine catchments.
M. Zappa, N. Andres, P. Kienzler, D. Näf-Huber, C. Marti, and M. Oplatka
Proc. IAHS, 370, 235–242, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-235-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-235-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The most severe threat for the city of Zürich (Switzerland) are flash-floods from the small Sihl river. An assessment using a rainfall-runoff model evaluated more than 40000 extreme flood scenarios. These scenarios identified deficits for the safety of Zürich. The combination of different structural and flood management measures can lead to an optimal safety also in case of unfavorable initial conditions. Pending questions concern the costs, political decisions and the environmental matters.
M. Zappa, T. Vitvar, A. Rücker, G. Melikadze, L. Bernhard, V. David, M. Jans-Singh, N. Zhukova, and M. Sanda
Proc. IAHS, 369, 25–30, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-369-25-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-369-25-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A research effort involving Switzerland, Georgia and the Czech Republic has been launched to evaluate the relation between snowpack and summer low flows. Two rainfall-runoff models will simulate over 10 years of snow hydrology and runoff in nested streams. Processes involved will be also evaluated by mean by means of high frequency sampling of the environmental isotopes 18O and 2H. The paper presents first analysis of available datasets of 18O, 2H, discharge, snowpack and modelling experiments.
P. Ronco, M. Bullo, S. Torresan, A. Critto, R. Olschewski, M. Zappa, and A. Marcomini
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1561–1576, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1561-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1561-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The aim of the paper is the application of the KULTURisk regional risk assessment (KR-RRA) methodology, presented in the companion paper (Part 1), to the Sihl River basin, in northern Switzerland. Flood-related risks have been assessed for different receptors lying in the Sihl river valley including the city of Zurich, which represents a typical case of river flooding in an urban area, by means of a calibration process of the methodology to the site-specific context and features.
S. Jörg-Hess, F. Fundel, T. Jonas, and M. Zappa
The Cryosphere, 8, 471–485, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-471-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-471-2014, 2014
K. Liechti, L. Panziera, U. Germann, and M. Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3853–3869, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3853-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3853-2013, 2013
F. Fundel, S. Jörg-Hess, and M. Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 395–407, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-395-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-395-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Biogeosciences
Modeling boreal forest soil dynamics with the microbially explicit soil model MIMICS+ (v1.0)
Optimal enzyme allocation leads to the constrained enzyme hypothesis: the Soil Enzyme Steady Allocation Model (SESAM; v3.1)
Implementing a dynamic representation of fire and harvest including subgrid-scale heterogeneity in the tile-based land surface model CLASSIC v1.45
Inferring the tree regeneration niche from inventory data using a dynamic forest model
Optimising CH4 simulations from the LPJ-GUESS model v4.1 using an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm
The XSO framework (v0.1) and Phydra library (v0.1) for a flexible, reproducible, and integrated plankton community modeling environment in Python
AgriCarbon-EO v1.0.1: large-scale and high-resolution simulation of carbon fluxes by assimilation of Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 reflectances using a Bayesian approach
SAMM version 1.0: a numerical model for microbial- mediated soil aggregate formation
A model of the within-population variability of budburst in forest trees
Computationally efficient parameter estimation for high-dimensional ocean biogeochemical models
The community-centered freshwater biogeochemistry model unified RIVE v1.0: a unified version for water column
Observation-based sowing dates and cultivars significantly affect yield and irrigation for some crops in the Community Land Model (CLM5)
The statistical emulators of GGCMI phase 2: responses of year-to-year variation of crop yield to CO2, temperature, water, and nitrogen perturbations
A novel Eulerian model based on central moments to simulate age and reactivity continua interacting with mixing processes
Dynamic ecosystem assembly and escaping the “fire-trap” in the tropics: Insights from FATES_15.0.0
AdaScape 1.0: a coupled modelling tool to investigate the links between tectonics, climate, and biodiversity
An along-track Biogeochemical Argo modelling framework: a case study of model improvements for the Nordic seas
A global behavioural model of human fire use and management: WHAM! v1.0
Peatland-VU-NUCOM (PVN 1.0): using dynamic plant functional types to model peatland vegetation, CH4, and CO2 emissions
Quantification of hydraulic trait control on plant hydrodynamics and risk of hydraulic failure within a demographic structured vegetation model in a tropical forest (FATES–HYDRO V1.0)
Simple process-led algorithms for simulating habitats (SPLASH v.2.0): calibration-free calculations of water and energy fluxes
biospheremetrics v1.0.1: An R package to calculate two complementary terrestrial biosphere integrity indicators: human colonization of the biosphere (BioCol) and risk of ecosystem destabilization (EcoRisk)
SedTrace 1.0: a Julia-based framework for generating and running reactive-transport models of marine sediment diagenesis specializing in trace elements and isotopes
A high-resolution marine mercury model MITgcm-ECCO2-Hg with online biogeochemistry
Improving nitrogen cycling in a land surface model (CLM5) to quantify soil N2O, NO, and NH3 emissions from enhanced rock weathering with croplands
Ocean biogeochemistry in the coupled ocean–sea ice–biogeochemistry model FESOM2.1–REcoM3
In-silico calculation of soil pH by SCEPTER v1.0
Forcing the Global Fire Emissions Database burned-area dataset into the Community Land Model version 5.0: impacts on carbon and water fluxes at high latitudes
Modeling of non-structural carbohydrate dynamics by the spatially explicit individual-based dynamic global vegetation model SEIB-DGVM (SEIB-DGVM-NSC version 1.0)
Terrestrial Ecosystem Model in R (TEMIR) version 1.0: Simulating ecophysiological responses of vegetation to atmospheric chemical and meteorological changes
MEDFATE 2.9.3: a trait-enabled model to simulate Mediterranean forest function and dynamics at regional scales
Modelling the role of livestock grazing in C and N cycling in grasslands with LPJmL5.0-grazing
Implementation of trait-based ozone plant sensitivity in the Yale Interactive terrestrial Biosphere model v1.0 to assess global vegetation damage
The Permafrost and Organic LayEr module for Forest Models (POLE-FM) 1.0
CompLaB v1.0: a scalable pore-scale model for flow, biogeochemistry, microbial metabolism, and biofilm dynamics
Validation of a new spatially explicit process-based model (HETEROFOR) to simulate structurally and compositionally complex forest stands in eastern North America
Global agricultural ammonia emissions simulated with the ORCHIDEE land surface model
ForamEcoGEnIE 2.0: incorporating symbiosis and spine traits into a trait-based global planktic foraminiferal model
FABM-NflexPD 2.0: testing an instantaneous acclimation approach for modeling the implications of phytoplankton eco-physiology for the carbon and nutrient cycles
Evaluating the vegetation–atmosphere coupling strength of ORCHIDEE land surface model (v7266)
Non-Redfieldian carbon model for the Baltic Sea (ERGOM version 1.2) – implementation and budget estimates
Implementation of a new crop phenology and irrigation scheme in the ISBA land surface model using SURFEX_v8.1
Simulating long-term responses of soil organic matter turnover to substrate stoichiometry by abstracting fast and small-scale microbial processes: the Soil Enzyme Steady Allocation Model (SESAM; v3.0)
Modeling demographic-driven vegetation dynamics and ecosystem biogeochemical cycling in NASA GISS's Earth system model (ModelE-BiomeE v.1.0)
Forest fluxes and mortality response to drought: model description (ORCHIDEE-CAN-NHA r7236) and evaluation at the Caxiuanã drought experiment
Matrix representation of lateral soil movements: scaling and calibrating CE-DYNAM (v2) at a continental level
CANOPS-GRB v1.0: a new Earth system model for simulating the evolution of ocean–atmosphere chemistry over geologic timescales
Low sensitivity of three terrestrial biosphere models to soil texture over the South American tropics
FESDIA (v1.0): exploring temporal variations of sediment biogeochemistry under the influence of flood events using numerical modelling
Impact of changes in climate and CO2 on the carbon storage potential of vegetation under limited water availability using SEIB-DGVM version 3.02
Elin Ristorp Aas, Heleen A. de Wit, and Terje K. Berntsen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2929–2959, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2929-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
By including microbial processes in soil models, we learn how the soil system interacts with its environment and responds to climate change. We present a soil process model, MIMICS+, which is able to reproduce carbon stocks found in boreal forest soils better than a conventional land model. With the model we also find that when adding nitrogen, the relationship between soil microbes changes notably. Coupling the model to a vegetation model will allow for further study of these mechanisms.
Thomas Wutzler, Christian Reimers, Bernhard Ahrens, and Marion Schrumpf
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2705–2725, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2705-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2705-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Soil microbes provide a strong link for elemental fluxes in the earth system. The SESAM model applies an optimality assumption to model those linkages and their adaptation. We found that a previous heuristic description was a special case of a newly developed more rigorous description. The finding of new behaviour at low microbial biomass led us to formulate the constrained enzyme hypothesis. We now can better describe how microbially mediated linkages of elemental fluxes adapt across decades.
Salvatore R. Curasi, Joe R. Melton, Elyn R. Humphreys, Txomin Hermosilla, and Michael A. Wulder
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2683–2704, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Canadian forests are responding to fire, harvest, and climate change. Models need to quantify these processes and their carbon and energy cycling impacts. We develop a scheme that, based on satellite records, represents fire, harvest, and the sparsely vegetated areas that these processes generate. We evaluate model performance and demonstrate the impacts of disturbance on carbon and energy cycling. This work has implications for land surface modeling and assessing Canada’s terrestrial C cycle.
Yannek Käber, Florian Hartig, and Harald Bugmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2727–2753, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2727-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2727-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Many forest models include detailed mechanisms of forest growth and mortality, but regeneration is often simplified. Testing and improving forest regeneration models is challenging. We address this issue by exploring how forest inventories from unmanaged European forests can be used to improve such models. We find that competition for light among trees is captured by the model, unknown model components can be informed by forest inventory data, and climatic effects are challenging to capture.
Jalisha T. Kallingal, Johan Lindström, Paul A. Miller, Janne Rinne, Maarit Raivonen, and Marko Scholze
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2299–2324, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2299-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2299-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
By unlocking the mysteries of CH4 emissions from wetlands, our work improved the accuracy of the LPJ-GUESS vegetation model using Bayesian statistics. Via assimilation of long-term real data from a wetland, we significantly enhanced CH4 emission predictions. This advancement helps us better understand wetland contributions to atmospheric CH4, which are crucial for addressing climate change. Our method offers a promising tool for refining global climate models and guiding conservation efforts
Benjamin Post, Esteban Acevedo-Trejos, Andrew D. Barton, and Agostino Merico
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1175–1195, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1175-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1175-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Creating computational models of how phytoplankton grows in the ocean is a technical challenge. We developed a new tool set (Xarray-simlab-ODE) for building such models using the programming language Python. We demonstrate the tool set in a library of plankton models (Phydra). Our goal was to allow scientists to develop models quickly, while also allowing the model structures to be changed easily. This allows us to test many different structures of our models to find the most appropriate one.
Taeken Wijmer, Ahmad Al Bitar, Ludovic Arnaud, Remy Fieuzal, and Eric Ceschia
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 997–1021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-997-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-997-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Quantification of carbon fluxes of crops is an essential building block for the construction of a monitoring, reporting, and verification approach. We developed an end-to-end platform (AgriCarbon-EO) that assimilates, through a Bayesian approach, high-resolution (10 m) optical remote sensing data into radiative transfer and crop modelling at regional scale (100 x 100 km). Large-scale estimates of carbon flux are validated against in situ flux towers and yield maps and analysed at regional scale.
Moritz Laub, Sergey Blagodatsky, Marijn Van de Broek, Samuel Schlichenmaier, Benjapon Kunlanit, Johan Six, Patma Vityakon, and Georg Cadisch
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 931–956, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-931-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-931-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To manage soil organic matter (SOM) sustainably, we need a better understanding of the role that soil microbes play in aggregate protection. Here, we propose the SAMM model, which connects soil aggregate formation to microbial growth. We tested it against data from a tropical long-term experiment and show that SAMM effectively represents the microbial growth, SOM, and aggregate dynamics and that it can be used to explore the importance of aggregate formation in SOM stabilization.
Jianhong Lin, Daniel Berveiller, Christophe François, Heikki Hänninen, Alexandre Morfin, Gaëlle Vincent, Rui Zhang, Cyrille Rathgeber, and Nicolas Delpierre
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 865–879, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-865-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-865-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Currently, the high variability of budburst between individual trees is overlooked. The consequences of this neglect when projecting the dynamics and functioning of tree communities are unknown. Here we develop the first process-oriented model to describe the difference in budburst dates between individual trees in plant populations. Beyond budburst, the model framework provides a basis for studying the dynamics of phenological traits under climate change, from the individual to the community.
Skyler Kern, Mary E. McGuinn, Katherine M. Smith, Nadia Pinardi, Kyle E. Niemeyer, Nicole S. Lovenduski, and Peter E. Hamlington
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 621–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-621-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-621-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Computational models are used to simulate the behavior of marine ecosystems. The models often have unknown parameters that need to be calibrated to accurately represent observational data. Here, we propose a novel approach to simultaneously determine a large set of parameters for a one-dimensional model of a marine ecosystem in the surface ocean at two contrasting sites. By utilizing global and local optimization techniques, we estimate many parameters in a computationally efficient manner.
Shuaitao Wang, Vincent Thieu, Gilles Billen, Josette Garnier, Marie Silvestre, Audrey Marescaux, Xingcheng Yan, and Nicolas Flipo
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 449–476, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-449-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-449-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents unified RIVE v1.0, a unified version of the freshwater biogeochemistry model RIVE. It harmonizes different RIVE implementations, providing the referenced formalisms for microorganism activities to describe full biogeochemical cycles in the water column (e.g., carbon, nutrients, oxygen). Implemented as open-source projects in Python 3 (pyRIVE 1.0) and ANSI C (C-RIVE 0.32), unified RIVE v1.0 promotes and enhances collaboration among research teams and public services.
Sam S. Rabin, William J. Sacks, Danica L. Lombardozzi, Lili Xia, and Alan Robock
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7253–7273, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7253-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7253-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models can help us simulate how the agricultural system will be affected by and respond to environmental change, but to be trustworthy they must realistically reproduce historical patterns. When farmers plant their crops and what varieties they choose will be important aspects of future adaptation. Here, we improve the crop component of a global model to better simulate observed growing seasons and examine the impacts on simulated crop yields and irrigation demand.
Weihang Liu, Tao Ye, Christoph Müller, Jonas Jägermeyr, James A. Franke, Haynes Stephens, and Shuo Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7203–7221, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7203-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a machine-learning-based crop model emulator with the inputs and outputs of multiple global gridded crop model ensemble simulations to capture the year-to-year variation of crop yield under future climate change. The emulator can reproduce the year-to-year variation of simulated yield given by the crop models under CO2, temperature, water, and nitrogen perturbations. Developing this emulator can provide a tool to project future climate change impact in a simple way.
Jurjen Rooze, Heewon Jung, and Hagen Radtke
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7107–7121, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7107-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7107-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Chemical particles in nature have properties such as age or reactivity. Distributions can describe the properties of chemical concentrations. In nature, they are affected by mixing processes, such as chemical diffusion, burrowing animals, and bottom trawling. We derive equations for simulating the effect of mixing on central moments that describe the distributions. We then demonstrate applications in which these equations are used to model continua in disturbed natural environments.
Jacquelyn K. Shuman, Rosie A. Fisher, Charles D. Koven, Ryan G. Knox, Lara M. Kueppers, and Chonggang Xu
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-191, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-191, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
We adapt a fire-behavior and effects module for use in a size-structured vegetation demographic model to test how climate, fire regime and fire-tolerance plant traits interact to determine the distribution of tropical forests and grasslands. Our model captures the connection between fire disturbance and plant fire-tolerance strategies in determining plant distribution and provides a useful tool for understanding the vulnerability of these areas under changing conditions across the tropics.
Esteban Acevedo-Trejos, Jean Braun, Katherine Kravitz, N. Alexia Raharinirina, and Benoît Bovy
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6921–6941, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6921-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6921-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The interplay of tectonics and climate influences the evolution of life and the patterns of biodiversity we observe on earth's surface. Here we present an adaptive speciation component coupled with a landscape evolution model that captures the essential earth-surface, ecological, and evolutionary processes that lead to the diversification of taxa. We can illustrate with our tool how life and landforms co-evolve to produce distinct biodiversity patterns on geological timescales.
Veli Çağlar Yumruktepe, Erik Askov Mousing, Jerry Tjiputra, and Annette Samuelsen
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6875–6897, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6875-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6875-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present an along BGC-Argo track 1D modelling framework. The model physics is constrained by the BGC-Argo temperature and salinity profiles to reduce the uncertainties related to mixed layer dynamics, allowing the evaluation of the biogeochemical formulation and parameterization. We objectively analyse the model with BGC-Argo and satellite data and improve the model biogeochemical dynamics. We present the framework, example cases and routines for model improvement and implementations.
Oliver Perkins, Matthew Kasoar, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Cathy Smith, Jay Mistry, and James Millington
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2162, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2162, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Wildfire is often presented in the media as a danger to human life. Yet globally, millions of people’s livelihoods depend on using fire as a tool. So, patterns of fire emerge from interactions between humans, land use and climate. This complexity means scientists cannot yet reliably say how fire will be impacted by climate change. So, we developed a new model that represents globally how people use and manage fire. The model reveals the extent and diversity of how humans live with and use fire.
Tanya J. R. Lippmann, Ype van der Velde, Monique M. P. D. Heijmans, Han Dolman, Dimmie M. D. Hendriks, and Ko van Huissteden
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6773–6804, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6773-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6773-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Vegetation is a critical component of carbon storage in peatlands but an often-overlooked concept in many peatland models. We developed a new model capable of simulating the response of vegetation to changing environments and management regimes. We evaluated the model against observed chamber data collected at two peatland sites. We found that daily air temperature, water level, harvest frequency and height, and vegetation composition drive methane and carbon dioxide emissions.
Chonggang Xu, Bradley Christoffersen, Zachary Robbins, Ryan Knox, Rosie A. Fisher, Rutuja Chitra-Tarak, Martijn Slot, Kurt Solander, Lara Kueppers, Charles Koven, and Nate McDowell
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6267–6283, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6267-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6267-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a plant hydrodynamic model for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)-sponsored model, the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES). To better understand this new model system and its functionality in tropical forest ecosystems, we conducted a global parameter sensitivity analysis at Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We identified the key parameters that affect the simulated plant hydrodynamics to guide both modeling and field campaign studies.
David Sandoval, Iain Colin Prentice, and Rodolfo L. B. Nóbrega
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1626, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1626, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Numerous estimations of water and energy balances heavily depend on empirical equations that necessitate site-specific calibration. This equifinality poses the risk of obtaining 'right answers for wrong reasons.' In this paper, we introduce novel formulations based on first-principles to calculate calibration-free quantities, such as net radiation, evapotranspiration, condensation, soil water content, surface runoff, subsurface lateral flow, and snow-water equivalent.
Fabian Stenzel, Johanna Braun, Jannes Breier, Karlheinz Erb, Dieter Gerten, Jens Heinke, Sarah Matej, Sebastian Ostberg, Sibyll Schaphoff, and Wolfgang Lucht
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2503, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2503, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We provide an R package to compute two biosphere integrity metrics that can be applied to simulations of vegetation growth from the dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL. The pressure metric BioCol indicates that we humans modify and extract >25 % of the potential pre-industrial natural biomass production. The ecosystems state metric EcoRisk shows a high risk of ecosystem destabilization in many regions as a result of land, water, and fertilizer use, as well as climate change.
Jianghui Du
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5865–5894, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5865-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5865-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Trace elements and isotopes (TEIs) are important tools to study the changes in the ocean environment both today and in the past. However, the behaviors of TEIs in marine sediments are poorly known, limiting our ability to use them in oceanography. Here we present a modeling framework that can be used to generate and run models of the sedimentary cycling of TEIs assisted with advanced numerical tools in the Julia language, lowering the coding barrier for the general user to study marine TEIs.
Siyu Zhu, Peipei Wu, Siyi Zhang, Oliver Jahn, Shu Li, and Yanxu Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5915–5929, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5915-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5915-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we estimate the global biogeochemical cycling of Hg in a state-of-the-art physical-ecosystem ocean model (high-resolution-MITgcm/Hg), providing a more accurate portrayal of surface Hg concentrations in estuarine and coastal areas, strong western boundary flow and upwelling areas, and concentration diffusion as vortex shapes. The high-resolution model can help us better predict the transport and fate of Hg in the ocean and its impact on the global Hg cycle.
Maria Val Martin, Elena Blanc-Betes, Ka Ming Fung, Euripides P. Kantzas, Ilsa B. Kantola, Isabella Chiaravalloti, Lyla L. Taylor, Louisa K. Emmons, William R. Wieder, Noah J. Planavsky, Michael D. Masters, Evan H. DeLucia, Amos P. K. Tai, and David J. Beerling
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5783–5801, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5783-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5783-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Enhanced rock weathering (ERW) is a CO2 removal strategy that involves applying crushed rocks (e.g., basalt) to agricultural soils. However, unintended processes within the N cycle due to soil pH changes may affect the climate benefits of C sequestration. ERW could drive changes in soil emissions of non-CO2 GHGs (N2O) and trace gases (NO and NH3) that may affect air quality. We present a new improved N cycling scheme for the land model (CLM5) to evaluate ERW effects on soil gas N emissions.
Özgür Gürses, Laurent Oziel, Onur Karakuş, Dmitry Sidorenko, Christoph Völker, Ying Ye, Moritz Zeising, Martin Butzin, and Judith Hauck
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4883–4936, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4883-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4883-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper assesses the biogeochemical model REcoM3 coupled to the ocean–sea ice model FESOM2.1. The model can be used to simulate the carbon uptake or release of the ocean on timescales of several hundred years. A detailed analysis of the nutrients, ocean productivity, and ecosystem is followed by the carbon cycle. The main conclusion is that the model performs well when simulating the observed mean biogeochemical state and variability and is comparable to other ocean–biogeochemical models.
Yoshiki Kanzaki, Isabella Chiaravalloti, Shuang Zhang, Noah J. Planavsky, and Christopher T. Reinhard
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-137, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-137, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
Soil pH is one of the most commonly measured agronomical and biogeochemical indices, mostly reflecting exchangeable acidity. Explicit simulation of both porewater pH and bulk soil pH is thus crucial to accurate evaluation of alkalinity required to counteract soil acidification and resulting capture of anthropogenic carbon dioxide through the Enhanced Rock Weathering technique. This has been enabled by the updated reactive-transport SCEPTER code and newly developed framework to simulate soil pH.
Hocheol Seo and Yeonjoo Kim
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4699–4713, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4699-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Wildfire is a crucial factor in carbon and water fluxes on the Earth system. About 2.1 Pg of carbon is released into the atmosphere by wildfires annually. Because the fire processes are still limitedly represented in land surface models, we forced the daily GFED4 burned area into the land surface model over Alaska and Siberia. The results with the GFED4 burned area significantly improved the simulated carbon emissions and net ecosystem exchange compared to the default simulation.
Hideki Ninomiya, Tomomichi Kato, Lea Végh, and Lan Wu
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4155–4170, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4155-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4155-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Non-structural carbohydrates (NSCs) play a crucial role in plants to counteract the effects of climate change. We added a new NSC module into the SEIB-DGVM, an individual-based ecosystem model. The simulated NSC levels and their seasonal patterns show a strong agreement with observed NSC data at both point and global scales. The model can be used to simulate the biotic effects resulting from insufficient NSCs, which are otherwise difficult to measure in terrestrial ecosystems globally.
Amos P. K. Tai, David H. Y. Yung, and Timothy Lam
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1287, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1287, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We have developed the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model in R (TEMIR), which simulates plant carbon and pollutant uptake and predict their response to varying atmospheric conditions. This model is designed to couple with an atmospheric chemistry model so that important questions related to plant-atmosphere interactions can be addressed, such as the effects of rising CO2 and ozone pollution on carbon uptake of the biosphere. The model has been well validated with both ground and satellite observations.
Miquel De Cáceres, Roberto Molowny-Horas, Antoine Cabon, Jordi Martínez-Vilalta, Maurizio Mencuccini, Raúl García-Valdés, Daniel Nadal-Sala, Santiago Sabaté, Nicolas Martin-StPaul, Xavier Morin, Francesco D'Adamo, Enric Batllori, and Aitor Améztegui
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3165–3201, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3165-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3165-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Regional-level applications of dynamic vegetation models are challenging because they need to accommodate the variation in plant functional diversity. This can be done by estimating parameters from available plant trait databases while adopting alternative solutions for missing data. Here we present the design, parameterization and evaluation of MEDFATE (version 2.9.3), a novel model of forest dynamics for its application over a region in the western Mediterranean Basin.
Jens Heinke, Susanne Rolinski, and Christoph Müller
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2455–2475, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2455-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2455-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a livestock module for the global vegetation model LPJmL5.0 to simulate the impact of grazing dairy cattle on carbon and nitrogen cycles in grasslands. A novelty of the approach is that it accounts for the effect of feed quality on feed uptake and feed utilization by animals. The portioning of dietary nitrogen into milk, feces, and urine shows very good agreement with estimates obtained from animal trials.
Yimian Ma, Xu Yue, Stephen Sitch, Nadine Unger, Johan Uddling, Lina M. Mercado, Cheng Gong, Zhaozhong Feng, Huiyi Yang, Hao Zhou, Chenguang Tian, Yang Cao, Yadong Lei, Alexander W. Cheesman, Yansen Xu, and Maria Carolina Duran Rojas
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2261–2276, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2261-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2261-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Plants have been found to respond differently to O3, but the variations in the sensitivities have rarely been explained nor fully implemented in large-scale assessment. This study proposes a new O3 damage scheme with leaf mass per area to unify varied sensitivities for all plant species. Our assessment reveals an O3-induced reduction of 4.8 % in global GPP, with the highest reduction of >10 % for cropland, suggesting an emerging risk of crop yield loss under the threat of O3 pollution.
Winslow D. Hansen, Adrianna Foster, Benjamin Gaglioti, Rupert Seidl, and Werner Rammer
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2011–2036, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2011-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2011-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Permafrost and the thick soil-surface organic layers that insulate permafrost are important controls of boreal forest dynamics and carbon cycling. However, both are rarely included in process-based vegetation models used to simulate future ecosystem trajectories. To address this challenge, we developed a computationally efficient permafrost and soil organic layer module that operates at fine spatial (1 ha) and temporal (daily) resolutions.
Heewon Jung, Hyun-Seob Song, and Christof Meile
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1683–1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1683-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1683-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Microbial activity responsible for many chemical transformations depends on environmental conditions. These can vary locally, e.g., between poorly connected pores in porous media. We present a modeling framework that resolves such small spatial scales explicitly, accounts for feedback between transport and biogeochemical conditions, and can integrate state-of-the-art representations of microbes in a computationally efficient way, making it broadly applicable in science and engineering use cases.
Arthur Guignabert, Quentin Ponette, Frédéric André, Christian Messier, Philippe Nolet, and Mathieu Jonard
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1661–1682, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1661-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1661-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Spatially explicit and process-based models are useful to test innovative forestry practices under changing and uncertain conditions. However, their larger use is often limited by the restricted range of species and stand structures they can reliably account for. We therefore calibrated and evaluated such a model, HETEROFOR, for 23 species across southern Québec. Our results showed that the model is robust and can predict accurately both individual tree growth and stand dynamics in this region.
Maureen Beaudor, Nicolas Vuichard, Juliette Lathière, Nikolaos Evangeliou, Martin Van Damme, Lieven Clarisse, and Didier Hauglustaine
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1053–1081, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1053-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1053-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ammonia mainly comes from the agricultural sector, and its volatilization relies on environmental variables. Our approach aims at benefiting from an Earth system model framework to estimate it. By doing so, we represent a consistent spatial distribution of the emissions' response to environmental changes.
We greatly improved the seasonal cycle of emissions compared with previous work. In addition, our model includes natural soil emissions (that are rarely represented in modeling approaches).
Rui Ying, Fanny M. Monteiro, Jamie D. Wilson, and Daniela N. Schmidt
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 813–832, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-813-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-813-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Planktic foraminifera are marine-calcifying zooplankton; their shells are widely used to measure past temperature and productivity. We developed ForamEcoGEnIE 2.0 to simulate the four subgroups of this organism. We found that the relative abundance distribution agrees with marine sediment core-top data and that carbon export and biomass are close to sediment trap and plankton net observations respectively. This model provides the opportunity to study foraminiferal ecology in any geological era.
Onur Kerimoglu, Markus Pahlow, Prima Anugerahanti, and Sherwood Lan Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 95–108, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-95-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-95-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In classical models that track the changes in the elemental composition of phytoplankton, additional state variables are required for each element resolved. In this study, we show how the behavior of such an explicit model can be approximated using an
instantaneous acclimationapproach, in which the elemental composition of the phytoplankton is assumed to adjust to an optimal value instantaneously. Through rigorous tests, we evaluate the consistency of this scheme.
Yuan Zhang, Devaraju Narayanappa, Philippe Ciais, Wei Li, Daniel Goll, Nicolas Vuichard, Martin G. De Kauwe, Laurent Li, and Fabienne Maignan
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 9111–9125, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9111-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9111-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
There are a few studies to examine if current models correctly represented the complex processes of transpiration. Here, we use a coefficient Ω, which indicates if transpiration is mainly controlled by vegetation processes or by turbulence, to evaluate the ORCHIDEE model. We found a good performance of ORCHIDEE, but due to compensation of biases in different processes, we also identified how different factors control Ω and where the model is wrong. Our method is generic to evaluate other models.
Thomas Neumann, Hagen Radtke, Bronwyn Cahill, Martin Schmidt, and Gregor Rehder
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8473–8540, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8473-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8473-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Marine ecosystem models are usually constrained by the elements nitrogen and phosphorus and consider carbon in organic matter in a fixed ratio. Recent observations show a substantial deviation from the simulated carbon cycle variables. In this study, we present a marine ecosystem model for the Baltic Sea which allows for a flexible uptake ratio for carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus. With this extension, the model reflects much more reasonable variables of the marine carbon cycle.
Arsène Druel, Simon Munier, Anthony Mucia, Clément Albergel, and Jean-Christophe Calvet
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8453–8471, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8453-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8453-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Crop phenology and irrigation is implemented into a land surface model able to work at a global scale. A case study is presented over Nebraska (USA). Simulations with and without the new scheme are compared to different satellite-based observations. The model is able to produce a realistic yearly irrigation water amount. The irrigation scheme improves the simulated leaf area index, gross primary productivity, evapotransipiration, and land surface temperature.
Thomas Wutzler, Lin Yu, Marion Schrumpf, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8377–8393, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8377-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8377-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Soil microbes process soil organic matter and affect carbon storage and plant nutrition at the ecosystem scale. We hypothesized that decadal dynamics is constrained by the ratios of elements in litter inputs, microbes, and matter and that microbial community optimizes growth. This allowed the SESAM model to descibe decadal-term carbon sequestration in soils and other biogeochemical processes explicitly accounting for microbial processes but without its problematic fine-scale parameterization.
Ensheng Weng, Igor Aleinov, Ram Singh, Michael J. Puma, Sonali S. McDermid, Nancy Y. Kiang, Maxwell Kelley, Kevin Wilcox, Ray Dybzinski, Caroline E. Farrior, Stephen W. Pacala, and Benjamin I. Cook
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8153–8180, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8153-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8153-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a demographic vegetation model to improve the representation of terrestrial vegetation dynamics and ecosystem biogeochemical cycles in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE. The individual-based competition for light and soil resources makes the modeling of eco-evolutionary optimality possible. This model will enable ModelE to simulate long-term biogeophysical and biogeochemical feedbacks between the climate system and land ecosystems at decadal to centurial temporal scales.
Yitong Yao, Emilie Joetzjer, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Fabio Cresto Aleina, Jerome Chave, Lawren Sack, Megan Bartlett, Patrick Meir, Rosie Fisher, and Sebastiaan Luyssaert
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7809–7833, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7809-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7809-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To facilitate more mechanistic modeling of drought effects on forest dynamics, our study implements a hydraulic module to simulate the vertical water flow, change in water storage and percentage loss of stem conductance (PLC). With the relationship between PLC and tree mortality, our model can successfully reproduce the large biomass drop observed under throughfall exclusion. Our hydraulic module provides promising avenues benefiting the prediction for mortality under future drought events.
Arthur Nicolaus Fendrich, Philippe Ciais, Emanuele Lugato, Marco Carozzi, Bertrand Guenet, Pasquale Borrelli, Victoria Naipal, Matthew McGrath, Philippe Martin, and Panos Panagos
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7835–7857, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7835-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7835-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Currently, spatially explicit models for soil carbon stock can simulate the impacts of several changes. However, they do not incorporate the erosion, lateral transport, and deposition (ETD) of soil material. The present work developed ETD formulation, illustrated model calibration and validation for Europe, and presented the results for a depositional site. We expect that our work advances ETD models' description and facilitates their reproduction and incorporation in land surface models.
Kazumi Ozaki, Devon B. Cole, Christopher T. Reinhard, and Eiichi Tajika
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7593–7639, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7593-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7593-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A new biogeochemical model (CANOPS-GRB v1.0) for assessing the redox stability and dynamics of the ocean–atmosphere system on geologic timescales has been developed. In this paper, we present a full description of the model and its performance. CANOPS-GRB is a useful tool for understanding the factors regulating atmospheric O2 level and has the potential to greatly refine our current understanding of Earth's oxygenation history.
Félicien Meunier, Wim Verbruggen, Hans Verbeeck, and Marc Peaucelle
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7573–7591, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7573-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7573-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Drought stress occurs in plants when water supply (i.e. root water uptake) is lower than the water demand (i.e. atmospheric demand). It is strongly related to soil properties and expected to increase in intensity and frequency in the tropics due to climate change. In this study, we show that contrary to the expectations, state-of-the-art terrestrial biosphere models are mostly insensitive to soil texture and hence probably inadequate to reproduce in silico the plant water status in drying soils.
Stanley I. Nmor, Eric Viollier, Lucie Pastor, Bruno Lansard, Christophe Rabouille, and Karline Soetaert
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7325–7351, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7325-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7325-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The coastal marine environment serves as a transition zone in the land–ocean continuum and is susceptible to episodic phenomena such as flash floods, which cause massive organic matter deposition. Here, we present a model of sediment early diagenesis that explicitly describes this type of deposition while also incorporating unique flood deposit characteristics. This model can be used to investigate the temporal evolution of marine sediments following abrupt changes in environmental conditions.
Shanlin Tong, Weiguang Wang, Jie Chen, Chong-Yu Xu, Hisashi Sato, and Guoqing Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7075–7098, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7075-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7075-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Plant carbon storage potential is central to moderate atmospheric CO2 concentration buildup and mitigation of climate change. There is an ongoing debate about the main driver of carbon storage. To reconcile this discrepancy, we use SEIB-DGVM to investigate the trend and response mechanism of carbon stock fractions among water limitation regions. Results show that the impact of CO2 and temperature on carbon stock depends on water limitation, offering a new perspective on carbon–water coupling.
Cited articles
Allen, C. D., Macalady, A. K., Chenchouni, H., Bachelet, D., McDowell, N.,
Vennetier, M., Kitzberger, T., Rigling, A., Breshears, D. D., Hogg, E. H.,
Gonzalez, P., Fensham, R., Zhang, Z., Castro, J., Demidova, N., Lim, J. H.,
Allard, G., Running, S. W., Semerci, A., and Cobb, N.: A global overview of
drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks
for forests, Forest Ecol. Manag., 259, 660–684, 2010. a
Anderegg, L. D. L., Anderegg, W. R. L., and Berry, J. A.: Not all droughts are
created equal: translating meteorological drought into woody plant mortality,
Tree Physiol., 33, 672–683, https://doi.org/10.1093/treephys/tpt044,
2013. a
Andréassian, V.: Waters and forests: from historical controversy to
scientific debate, J. Hydrol., 291, 1–27,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2003.12.015,
2004. a, b
Bachofen, H., Brändli, U., Brassel, P., Kasper, H., Lüscher, P.,
Mahrer, F., Riegger, W., Stierlin, H., Strobel, T., Sutter, R., Wenger, C.,
Winzeler, C., and Zingg, A.: Schweizerisches
Landesforstinventar – Ergebnisse der Erstaufnahme 1982–1986, Tech.
rep., Eidgenössische Anstalt für das Forstliche Versuchswesen,
Birmensdorf, available at:
https://www.lfi.ch/publikationen/publ/LFI1_Ergebnisbericht.pdf (last access: 10 February 2020),
1988. a, b, c
Badoux, A., Witzig, J., Germann, P. F., Kienholz, H., Lüscher, P.,
Weingartner, R., and Hegg, C.: Investigations on the runoff generation at the
profile and plot scales, Swiss Emmental, Hydrol. Process., 20,
377–394, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6056, 2006. a
Bartholomeus, R. P., Stagge, J. H., Tallaksen, L. M., and Witte, J. P. M.: Sensitivity of potential evaporation estimates to 100 years of climate variability, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 997–1014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-997-2015, 2015. a
Begert, M., Schlegel, T., and Kirchhofer, W.: Homogeneous temperature and
precipitation series of Switzerland from 1864 to 2000, Int. J. Climatol., 25, 65–80, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1118, 2005. a
Bosch, J. and Hewlett, J.: A review of catchment experiments to determine the
effect of vegetation changes on water yield and evapotranspiration, J. Hydrol., 55, 3–23, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(82)90117-2,
1982. a
Bréda, N., Huc, R., Granier, A., and Dreyer, E.: Temperate forest trees and
stands under severe drought: a review of ecophysiological responses,
adaptation processes and long-term consequences, Ann. Forest Sci.,
63, 625–644, https://doi.org/10.1051/forest:2006042, 2006. a
Brunner, M. I., Björnsen Gurung, A., Zappa, M., Zekollari, H., Farinotti, D.,
and Stähli, M.: Present and future water scarcity in Switzerland:
Potential for alleviation through reservoirs and lakes, Sci.
Total Environ., 666, 1033–1047, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.169,
2019. a, b
Bugmann, H., Brang, P., Elkin, C., Henne, P., Jakoby, O., Lévesque, M.,
Lischke, H., Psomas, A., Rigling, A., Wermelinger, B., and Zimmermann, N.:
Climate change impacts on tree species, forest properties, and ecosystem
services, in: Toward Quantitative Scenarios of Climate Change
Impacts in Switzerland, 79–88, Bern, Switzerland,
http://www.ch2014-impacts.ch/ (last access: 10 February 2020), 2014. a, b, c, d
Büntgen, U., Bellwald, I., Kalbermatten, H., Schmidhalter, M., Frank,
D. C., Freund, H., Bellwald, W., Neuwirth, B., Nüsser, M., and Esper, J.:
700 years of settlement and building history in the Loetschental,
Switzerland, Erdkunde, 2, 96–112, https://doi.org/10.3112/erdkunde.2006.02.02,
2006. a
Burga, C. A.: Swiss vegetation history during the last 18 000 years, New
Phytol., 110, 581–662, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-8137.1988.tb00298.x,
1988. a, b
Camacho, F., Sánchez, J., and Latorre, C.: GIO Global Land
Component – Lot I “Operation of the Global Land Component”.
Quality Assessment Report LAI, FAPAR, FCover Collection 300 m.
Version 1, Issue I1.10, Tech. rep., GIO-GL Lot1 Consortium, Molderdijk, Belgium, 2016. a
Chakroun, H., Mouillot, F., Nasr, Z., Nouri, M., Ennajah, A., and Ourcival,
J. M.: Performance of LAI-MODIS and the influence on drought simulation
in a Mediterranean forest, Ecohydrology, 7, 1014–1028,
https://doi.org/10.1002/eco.1426,, 2014. a
Choat, B., Jansen, S., Brodribb, T. J., Cochard, H., Delzon, S., Bhaskar, R.,
Bucci, S. J., Feild, T. S., Gleason, S. M., Hacke, U. G., Jacobsen, A. L.,
Lens, F., Maherali, H., Martínez-Vilalta, J., Mayr, S., Mencuccini,
M., Mitchell, P. J., Nardini, A., Pittermann, J., Pratt, R. B., Sperry,
J. S., Westoby, M., Wright, I. J., and Zanne, A. E.: Global convergence in
the vulnerability of forests to drought, Nature, 491, 752–755, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11688, 2012. a
Copernicus Service Information: Leaf Area Index, available at: https://land.copernicus.eu/global/products/lai (last access: 10 February 2020), 2017. a
Creed, I. F., Spargo, A. T., Jones, J. A., Buttle, J. M., Adams, M. B., Beall,
F. D., Booth, E. G., Campbell, J. L., Clow, D., Elder, K., Green, M. B.,
Grimm, N. B., Miniat, C., Ramlal, P., Saha, A., Sebestyen, S., Spittlehouse,
D., Sterling, S., Williams, M. W., Winkler, R., and Yao, H.: Changing forest
water yields in response to climate warming: results from long-term
experimental watershed sites across North America, Glob. Change Biol.,
20, 3191–3208, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12615, 2014. a
De Cáceres, M., Martínez-Vilalta, J., Coll, L., Llorens, P., Casals,
P., Poyatos, R., Pausas, J. G., and Brotons, L.: Coupling a water balance
model with forest inventory data to predict drought stress: the role of
forest structural changes vs. climate changes, Agr. Forest
Meteorol., 213, 77–90, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.06.012,
2015. a
Defila, C. and Clot, B.: Phytophenological trends in Switzerland, Int, J, Biometeorol,, 45, 203–207, https://doi.org/10.1007/s004840100101, 2001. a
Delpierre, N., Dufrêne, E., Soudani, K., Ulrich, E., Cecchini, S., Boé,
J., and François, C.: Modelling interannual and spatial variability of
leaf senescence for three deciduous tree species in France, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 149, 938–948, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2008.11.014,
2009. a, b
Dobbertin, M., Eilmann, B., Bleuler, P., Giuggiola, A., Graf Pannatier, E.,
Landolt, W., Schleppi, P., and Rigling, A.: Effect of irrigation on needle
morphology, shoot and stem growth in a drought-exposed Pinus sylvestris
forest, Tree Physiol., 30, 346–360, https://doi.org/10.1093/treephys/tpp123, 2010. a
Du, E., Link, T. E., Wei, L., and Marshall, J. D.: Evaluating hydrologic
effects of spatial and temporal patterns of forest canopy change using
numerical modelling: Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Forest Canopy
Change, Hydrol. Process., 30, 217–231, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10591, 2016. a
Elkin, C., Giuggiola, A., Rigling, A., and Bugmann, H.: Short- and long-term
efficacy of forest thinning to mitigate drought impacts in mountain forests
in the European Alps, Ecol. Appl., 25, 1083–1098,
https://doi.org/10.1890/14-0690.1, 2015. a
Ewers, B. E., Gower, S. T., Bond-Lamberty, B., and Wang, C. K.: Effects of
stand age and tree species on canopy transpiration and average stomatal
conductance of boreal forests, Plant Cell Environ., 28, 660–678,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-3040.2005.01312.x, 2005. a
Farley, K. A., Jobbagy, E. G., and Jackson, R. B.: Effects of afforestation on
water yield: a global synthesis with implications for policy, Glob. Change
Biol., 11, 1565–1576, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.01011.x, 2005. a
Fatichi, S., Ivanov, V. Y., and Caporali, E.: A mechanistic ecohydrological
model to investigate complex interactions in cold and warm water-controlled
environments: 1. Theoretical framework and plot-scale analysis, J.
Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 4, M05002, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011MS000086, 2012. a
Fatichi, S., Pappas, C., and Ivanov, V. Y.: Modeling plant-water interactions:
an ecohydrological overview from the cell to the global scale: Modeling
plant-water interactions, WIRES Water, 3,
327–368, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1125, 2016. a
Federer, C. A., Vörösmarty, C., and Fekete, B.: Sensitivity of Annual
Evaporation to Soil and Root Properties in Two Models of
Contrasting Complexity, J. Hydrometeorol., 4, 1276–1290,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004<1276:SOAETS>2.0.CO;2, 2003. a
Ford, C. R., Hubbard, R. M., and Vose, J. M.: Quantifying structural and
physiological controls on variation in canopy transpiration among planted
pine and hardwood species in the southern Appalachians, Ecohydrology, 4,
183–195, https://doi.org/10.1002/eco.136, 2011. a
Fuhrer, J., Beniston, M., Fischlin, A., Frei, C., Goyette, S., Jasper, K., and
Pfister, C.: Climate Risks and Their Impact on Agriculture and
Forests in Switzerland, Climatic Change, 79, 79–102,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9106-6, 2006. a, b
Garrigues, S., Lacaze, R., Baret, F., Morisette, J. T., Weiss, M., Nickeson,
J. E., Fernandes, R., Plummer, S., Shabanov, N. V., Myneni, R. B.,
Knyazikhin, Y., and Yang, W.: Validation and intercomparison of global Leaf
Area Index products derived from remote sensing data, J.
Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 113, G02028,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JG000635, 2008. a
Gaudard, L., Romerio, F., Dalla Valle, F., Gorret, R., Maran, S., Ravazzani,
G., Stoffel, M., and Volonterio, M.: Climate change impacts on hydropower in
the Swiss and Italian Alps, Sci. Total Environ., 493,
1211–1221, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.10.012,
2014. a
Gehrig-Fasel, J., Guisan, A., and Zimmermann, N. E.: Tree line shifts in the
Swiss Alps: Climate change or land abandonment?, J. Veg.
Sci., 18, 571, https://doi.org/10.1658/1100-9233(2007)18[571:TLSITS]2.0.CO;2,
2007. a, b
Gerten, D., Schaphoff, S., Haberlandt, U., Lucht, W., and Sitch, S.:
Terrestrial vegetation and water balance – hydrological evaluation of a
dynamic global vegetation model, J. Hydrol., 286, 249–270, 2004. a
Gimmi, U., Bürgi, M., and Stuber, M.: Reconstructing Anthropogenic
Disturbance Regimes in Forest Ecosystems: A Case Study from the
Swiss Rhone Valley, Ecosystems, 11, 113–124,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-007-9111-2, 2008. a
Ginzler, C. and Hobi, M. L.: Das aktuelle Vegetationshöhenmodell der
Schweiz: spezifische Anwendungen im Waldbereich, Schweiz.
Z. Forstw., 167, 128–135, https://doi.org/10.3188/szf.2016.0128, 2016. a
Granier, A., Bréda, N., Biron, P., and Villette, S.: A lumped water balance
model to evaluate duration and intensity of drought constraints in forest
stands, Ecol. Model., 116, 269–283,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3800(98)00205-1,
1999. a
Guan, H. and Wilson, J. L.: A hybrid dual-source model for potential
evaporation and transpiration partitioning, J. Hydrol., 377,
405–416, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.08.037,
2009. a, b
Gupta, H. V., Kling, H., Yilmaz, K. K., and Martinez, G. F.: Decomposition of
the mean squared error and NSE performance criteria: Implications for
improving hydrological modelling, J. Hydrol., 377, 80–91,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.08.003,
2009. a
Gurtz, J., Zappa, M., Jasper, K., Lang, H., Verbunt, M., Badoux, A., and
Vitvar, T.: A comparative study in modelling runoff and its components in two
mountainous catchments, Hydrol. Process., 17, 297–311,
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.1125, 2003. a
Guswa, A. J.: The influence of climate on root depth: A carbon cost-benefit
analysis, Water Resour. Res., 44, W02427, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007WR006384, 2008. a, b
Guswa, A. J.: Effect of plant uptake strategy on the water-optimal root depth,
Water Resour. Res., 46, W09601, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009122, 2010. a, b, c
Jarvis, P.: The interpretation of the variations in leaf water potential and
stomatal conductance found in canopies in the field, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. B, 273, 593–610, 1976. a
Johst, M., Uhlenbrook, S., Tilch, N., Zillgens, B., Didszun, J., and Kirnbauer,
R.: An attempt of process-oriented rainfall-runoff modeling using
multiple-response data in an alpine catchment, Loehnersbach, Austria,
Hydrol. Res., 39, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2008.035, 2008. a, b
Kergoat, L.: A model for hydrological equilibrium of leaf area index on a
global scale, J. Hydrol., 212–213, 268–286,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(98)00211-X,
1998. a
Klok, E. J., Jasper, K., Roelofsma, K. P., Gurtz, J., and Badoux, A.:
Distributed hydrological modelling of a heavily glaciated Alpine river
basin, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 46, 553–570,
https://doi.org/10.1080/02626660109492850,
2001. a
Köplin, N., Schädler, B., Viviroli, D., and Weingartner, R.: The importance of glacier and forest change in hydrological climate-impact studies, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 619–635, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-619-2013, 2013. a
Kotlarski, S., Keuler, K., Christensen, O. B., Colette, A., Déqué, M., Gobiet, A., Goergen, K., Jacob, D., Lüthi, D., van Meijgaard, E., Nikulin, G., Schär, C., Teichmann, C., Vautard, R., Warrach-Sagi, K., and Wulfmeyer, V.: Regional climate modeling on European scales: a joint standard evaluation of the EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble, Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1297–1333, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1297-2014, 2014. a
Landsberg, J. and Waring, R.: A generalised model of forest productivity using
simplified concepts of radiation-use efficiency, carbon balance and
partitioning, Forest Ecol. Manag., 95, 209–228,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-1127(97)00026-1,
1997. a, b
Lawrence, D. M., Oleson, K. W., Flanner, M. G., Thornton, P. E., Swenson,
S. C., Lawrence, P. J., Zeng, X., Yang, Z.-L., Levis, S., Sakaguchi, K.,
Bonan, G. B., and Slater, A. G.: Parameterization improvements and functional
and structural advances in Version 4 of the Community Land Model,
J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 3, M03001, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011MS00045, 2011. a
Lischke, H. and Zierl, B.: Feedback between structured vegetation and soil
water in a changing climate: A simulation study, in: Climatic Change:
Implications for the Hydrological Cycle and for Water Management,
edited by: Beniston, M., 349–377, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, the Netherlands, 2002. a, b, c, d, e
Lischke, H., Löffler, T. J., and Fischlin, A.: Aggregation of Individual
Trees and Patches in Forest Succession Models: Capturing
Variability with Height Structured, Random, Spatial
Distributions, Theor. Popul. Biol., 54, 213–226,
https://doi.org/10.1006/tpbi.1998.1378,
1998. a, b, c
Manusch, C., Bugmann, H., and Wolf, A.: Sensitivity of simulated productivity
to soil characteristics and plant water uptake along drought gradients in the
Swiss Alps, Ecol. Model., 282, 25–34,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.03.006,
2014. a
Martin-Benito, D. and Pederson, N.: Convergence in drought stress, but a
divergence of climatic drivers across a latitudinal gradient in a temperate
broadleaf forest, J. Biogeogr., 42, 925–937,
https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.12462, 2015. a
Mayor, J. R., Sanders, N. J., Classen, A. T., Bardgett, R. D., Clément,
J.-C., Fajardo, A., Lavorel, S., Sundqvist, M. K., Bahn, M., Chisholm, C.,
Cieraad, E., Gedalof, Z., Grigulis, K., Kudo, G., Oberski, D. L., and Wardle,
D. A.: Elevation alters ecosystem properties across temperate treelines
globally, Nature, 542, 91–95, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature21027, 2017. a
McDowell, N., Pockman, W. T., Allen, C. D., Breshears, D. D., Cobb, N., Kolb,
T., Plaut, J., Sperry, J., West, A., Williams, D. G., and Yepez, E. A.:
Mechanisms of plant survival and mortality during drought: why do some plants
survive while others succumb to drought?, New Phytol., 178, 719–739,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2008.02436.x, 2008. a
McLaughlin, D. L., Kaplan, D. A., and Cohen, M. J.: Managing Forests for
Increased Regional Water Yield in the Southeastern U.S.
Coastal Plain, J. Am. Water Resour. As.,
49, 953–965, https://doi.org/10.1111/jawr.12073, 2013. a
Medlyn, B. E., Barton, C. V. M., Broadmeadow, M. S. J., Ceulemans, R.,
De Angelis, P., Forstreuter, M., Freeman, M., Jackson, S. B., Kellomaki, S.,
Laitat, E., Rey, A., Roberntz, P., Sigurdsson, B. D., Strassemeyer, J., Wang,
K., Curtis, P. S., and Jarvis, P. G.: Stomatal conductance of forest species
after long-term exposure to elevated CO2 concentration: a synthesis, New
Phytol., 149, 247–264, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1469-8137.2001.00028.x, 2001. a, b, c
Medlyn, B. E., Duursma, R. A., and Zeppel, M. J. B.: Forest productivity under climate change: a checklist for evaluating model studies, WIRES Clim. Change, 2, 332–355,
https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.108, 2011. a, b
Menzel, L.: Modelling canopy resistances and transpiration of grassland,
Phys. Chem. Earth, 21, 123–129,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0079-1946(97)85572-3,
1996. a
MeteoSwiss: Climate normals Sion, Reference period 1981–2010, available at:
http://www.meteoswiss.admin.ch/product/output/climate-data/climate-diagrams-normal-values-station-processing/SIO/climsheet_SIO_np8110_e.pdf (last access: 10 February 2020),
2014. a
Milano, M., Reynard, E., Köplin, N., and Weingartner, R.: Climatic and
anthropogenic changes in Western Switzerland: Impacts on water stress,
Sci. Total Environ., 536, 12–24,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.07.049,
2015. a
Milly, P. C. D.: An analytic solution of the stochastic storage problem
applicable to soil water, Water Resour. Res., 29, 3755–3758,
https://doi.org/10.1029/93WR01934, 1993. a, b
Murray, M. B., Cannell, M. G. R., and Smith, R. I.: Date of Budburst of
Fifteen Tree Species in Britain Following Climatic Warming, J. Appl. Ecol., 26, 693, https://doi.org/10.2307/2404093, 1989. a, b
National Centre for Climate Services: CH2018 – Climate Scenarios for
Switzerland, Tech. rep., NCCS, Zurich, Switzerland, 2018. a
Niinemets, Ü. and Valladares, F.: Tolerance to Shade, Drought and
Waterlogging of Temperate Northern Hemisphere Trees and Shrubs,
Ecol. Monogr., 76, 521–547,
https://doi.org/10.1890/0012-9615(2006)076[0521:TTSDAW]2.0.CO;2,
2006. a
Nijzink, R., Hutton, C., Pechlivanidis, I., Capell, R., Arheimer, B., Freer, J., Han, D., Wagener, T., McGuire, K., Savenije, H., and Hrachowitz, M.: The evolution of root-zone moisture capacities after deforestation: a step towards hydrological predictions under change?, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4775–4799, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4775-2016, 2016. a, b, c
Pappas, C., Fatichi, S., Leuzinger, S., Wolf, A., and Burlando, P.: Sensitivity
analysis of a process-based ecosystem model: Pinpointing parameterization
and structural issues, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 118,
505–528, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrg.20035, 2013. a, b
Proporato, A., Daly, E., and Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.: Soil Water Balance and
Ecosystem Response to Climate Change, Am. Nat., 164,
625–632, https://doi.org/10.2307/3473173, 2004. a
Price, B., Kaim, D., Szwagrzyk, M., Ostapowicz, K., Kolecka, N., Schmatz,
D. R., Wypych, A., and Kozak, J.: Legacies, socio-economic and biophysical
processes and drivers: the case of future forest cover expansion in the
Polish Carpathians and Swiss Alps, Reg. Environ. Change, 17, 2279–2291,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-016-1079-z, 2016. a
Rasche, L., Fahse, L., Zingg, A., and Bugmann, H.: Enhancing gap model accuracy
by modeling dynamic height growth and dynamic maximum tree height, Ecol.
Model., 232, 133–143, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.03.004,
2012. a, b
Reynard, E., Bonriposi, M., Graefe, O., Homewood, C., Huss, M., Kauzlaric, M.,
Liniger, H., Rey, E., Rist, S., Schädler, B., Schneider, F., and
Weingartner, R.: Interdisciplinary assessment of complex regional water
systems and their future evolution: how socioeconomic drivers can matter more
than climate: Interdisciplinary assessment of complex regional water
systems and their future evolution, WIRES Water, 1, 413–426, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1032, 2014. a
Rickebusch, S., Gellrich, M., Lischke, H., Guisan, A., and Zimmermann, N. E.:
Combining probabilistic land-use change and tree population dynamics
modelling to simulate responses in mountain forests, Ecol. Model.,
209, 157–168, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.06.027,
2007. a
Rössler, O., Addor, N., Bernhard, L., Figura, S., Köplin, N.,
Livingstone, D., Schädler, B., Seibert, J., and Weingartner, R.:
Hydrological responses to climate change: river runoff and groundwater, in:
Toward Quantitative Scenarios of Climate Change Impacts in
Switzerland, OCCR, FOEN, MeteoSwiss, C2SM, Agroscope, and ProClim, Bern,
Switzerland, available at: http://www.ch2014-impacts.ch/ (last access: 10 February 2020), 2014. a
Schattan, P., Zappa, M., Lischke, H., Bernhard, L., Thürig, E., and
Diekkrüger, B.: An approach for transient consideration of forest change
in hydrological impact studies, in: Climate and Land Surface Changes in
Hydrology, edited by: IAHS, IAHS–IAPSO–IASPEI, Gothenburg,
Sweden, 311–319, 2013. a, b, c, d, e, f, g
Scherstjanoi, M., Kaplan, J. O., and Lischke, H.: Application of a computationally efficient method to approximate gap model results with a probabilistic approach, Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1543–1571, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1543-2014, 2014. a, b
Schleppi, P., Thimonier, A., and Walthert, L.: Estimating leaf area index of
mature temperate forests using regressions on site and vegetation data,
Forest Ecol. Manag., 261, 601–610,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2010.11.013,
2011. a
Schulla, J.: WaSiM Model description. Completely revised version of 2012 with 2013 to 2015 extensions, available at: http://www.wasim.ch/downloads/doku/wasim/wasim_2013_en.pdf (last access: 10 February 2020),
2015. a
SCNAT: Mountains, a priority for a planet under pressure and for Switzerland, Swiss Academies Factsheets, available at: https://naturalsciences.ch/organisations/scnat/publications/ factsheets/28388-mountains-a-priority-for-a-planet-under-pressure-and-for-switzerland? (last access: 10 February 2020),
2012. a
Seely, B., Welham, C., and Scoullar, K.: Application of a Hybrid Forest
Growth Model to Evaluate Climate Change Impacts on
Productivity, Nutrient Cycling and Mortality in a Montane Forest
Ecosystem, PLOS ONE, 10, e0135034, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0135034, 2015. a
Seibert, J.: Regionalisation of parameters for a conceptual rainfall-runoff
model, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 98-99, 279–293,
https://doi.org/10.1016/s0168-1923(99)00105-7, 1999. a
Seidl, R., Rammer, W., Scheller, R. M., and Spies, T. A.: An individual-based
process model to simulate landscape-scale forest ecosystem dynamics,
Ecol. Model., 231, 87–100, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.02.015,
2012. a
Seneviratne, S. I., Corti, T., Davin, E. L., Hirschi, M., Jaeger, E. B.,
Lehner, I., Orlowsky, B., and Teuling, A. J.: Investigating soil
moisture–climate interactions in a changing climate: A review,
Earth-Sci. Rev., 99, 125–161, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2010.02.004,
2010. a
Sitch, S., Smith, B., Prentice, I. C., Arneth, A., Bondeau, A., Cramer, W.,
Kaplan, J. O., Levis, S., Lucht, W., Sykes, M. T., Thonicke, K., and
Venevsky, S.: Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and
terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model,
Glob. Change Biol., 9, 161–185, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2486.2003.00569.x, 2003. a
Smith, B., Prentice, I. C., and Sykes, M. T.: Representation of vegetation
dynamics in the modelling of terrestrial ecosystems: comparing two
contrasting approaches within European climate space: Vegetation dynamics
in ecosystem models, Global Ecol. Biogeogr., 10, 621–637,
https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1466-822X.2001.t01-1-00256.x,
2001. a
Speich, M.: Quantifying and modeling water availability in temperate forests: a review of drought and aridity indices, iForest, 12, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.3832/ifor2934-011, 2019. a
Speich, M., Bernhard, L., Teuling, A., and Zappa, M.: Application of bivariate
mapping for hydrological classification and analysis of temporal change and
scale effects in Switzerland, J. Hydrol., 523, 804–821,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.01.086, 2015. a, b, c
Speich, M. J. R., Lischke, H., and Zappa, M.: Testing an optimality-based model of rooting zone water storage capacity in temperate forests, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4097–4124, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4097-2018, 2018b. a, b, c, d
Speich, M. J. R., Zappa, M., Scherstjanoi, M., and Lischke, H.: FORHYCS v. 1.0.0 model code, EnviDat, https://doi.org/10.16904/envidat.93, 2019. a
Tang, J., Pilesjö, P., Miller, P. A., Persson, A., Yang, Z., Hanna, E., and
Callaghan, T. V.: Incorporating topographic indices into dynamic ecosystem
modelling using LPJ-GUESS, Ecohydrology, 7, 1147–1162,
https://doi.org/10.1002/eco.1446, 2013. a
Tesemma, Z., Wei, Y., Peel, M., and Western, A.: The effect of year-to-year
variability of leaf area index on Variable Infiltration Capacity model
performance and simulation of runoff, Adv. Water Resour., 83,
310–322, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2015.07.002,
2015. a
Theurillat, J.-P. and Guisan, A.: Potential impact of climate change on
vegetation in the European Alps: a review, Climatic Change, 50, 77–109,
2001. a
Thornthwaite, C. and Mather, J.: Instructions and tables for computing
potential evapotranspiration and the water balance, Publ. Climatol., 10,
185–311, 1957. a
Trancoso, R., Larsen, J. R., McVicar, T. R., Phinn, S. R., and McAlpine, C. A.: CO2-vegetation feedbacks and other climate changes implicated in reducing base flow, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 2310–2318, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL072759, 2017. a, b
Viviroli, D., Weingartner, R., and Messerli, B.: Assessing the Hydrological
Significance of the World's Mountains, Mt. Res. Dev., 23, 32–40,
https://doi.org/10.1659/0276-4741(2003)023[0032:ATHSOT]2.0.CO;2,
2003. a
Watson, B. M., McKeown, R. A., Putz, G., and MacDonald, J. D.: Modification of
SWAT for modelling streamflow from forested watersheds on the Canadian
Boreal Plain, J. Environ. Eng. Sci., 7,
145–159, https://doi.org/10.1139/S09-003, 2008. a
Wattenbach, M., Hattermann, F., Weng, R., Wechsung, F., Krysanova, V., and
Badeck, F.: A simplified approach to implement forest eco-hydrological
properties in regional hydrological modelling, Ecol. Model., 187, 40–59,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.01.026, 2005. a, b
Wigmosta, M. S., Vail, L. W., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: A distributed
hydrology–vegetation model for complex terrain, Water Resour. Res.,
30, 1665–1679, 1994. a
Zappa, M. and Kan, C.: Extreme heat and runoff extremes in the Swiss Alps, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 7, 375–389, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-7-375-2007, 2007. a
Zappa, M., Pos, F., Strasser, U., Warmerdam, P., and Gurtz, J.: Seasonal
Water Balance of an Alpine Catchment as Evaluated by Different
Methods for Spatially Distributed Snowmelt Modelling, Nord.
Hydrol., 34, 179–202, 2003. a
Zierl, B.: A water balance model to simulate drought in forested ecosystems and
its application to the entire forested area in Switzerland, J.
Hydrol., 242, 115–136, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(00)00387-5,
2001. a, b, c
Short summary
Climate change is expected to substantially affect natural processes, and simulation models are a valuable tool to anticipate these changes. In this study, we combine two existing models that each describe one aspect of the environment: forest dynamics and the terrestrial water cycle. The coupled model better described observed patterns in vegetation structure. We also found that including the effect of water availability on tree height and rooting depth improved the model.
Climate change is expected to substantially affect natural processes, and simulation models are...
