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Volume 8, issue 7 | Copyright
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2355-2377, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2355-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Methods for assessment of models 31 Jul 2015

Methods for assessment of models | 31 Jul 2015

Three-dimensional visualization of ensemble weather forecasts – Part 2: Forecasting warm conveyor belt situations for aircraft-based field campaigns

M. Rautenhaus1, C. M. Grams2, A. Schäfler3, and R. Westermann1 M. Rautenhaus et al.
  • 1Computer Graphics & Visualization Group, Technische Universität München, Garching, Germany
  • 2Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland
  • 3Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany

Abstract. We present the application of interactive three-dimensional (3-D) visualization of ensemble weather predictions to forecasting warm conveyor belt situations during aircraft-based atmospheric research campaigns. Motivated by forecast requirements of the T-NAWDEX-Falcon 2012 (THORPEX – North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment) campaign, a method to predict 3-D probabilities of the spatial occurrence of warm conveyor belts (WCBs) has been developed. Probabilities are derived from Lagrangian particle trajectories computed on the forecast wind fields of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble prediction system. Integration of the method into the 3-D ensemble visualization tool Met.3D, introduced in the first part of this study, facilitates interactive visualization of WCB features and derived probabilities in the context of the ECMWF ensemble forecast. We investigate the sensitivity of the method with respect to trajectory seeding and grid spacing of the forecast wind field. Furthermore, we propose a visual analysis method to quantitatively analyse the contribution of ensemble members to a probability region and, thus, to assist the forecaster in interpreting the obtained probabilities. A case study, revisiting a forecast case from T-NAWDEX-Falcon, illustrates the practical application of Met.3D and demonstrates the use of 3-D and uncertainty visualization for weather forecasting and for planning flight routes in the medium forecast range (3 to 7 days before take-off).

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This article presents the application of interactive 3D visualization of ensemble weather predictions to forecasting warm conveyor belt situations during aircraft-based atmospheric research campaigns. A method to predict 3D probabilities of the spatial occurrence of WCBs is developed and integrated into the 3D visualization tool "Met.3D", introduced in the first part of this two-paper study. A case study demonstrates the use of 3D and uncertainty visualization for weather forecasting.
This article presents the application of interactive 3D visualization of ensemble weather...
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