Journal cover Journal topic
Geoscientific Model Development An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3365-3377, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3365-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Model description paper
26 Oct 2015
CranSLIK v2.0: improving the stochastic prediction of oil spill transport and fate using approximation methods
R. Rutherford1, I. Moulitsas1, B. J. Snow2, A. J. Kolios1, and M. De Dominicis3 1Cranfield University, Cranfield, UK
2Northumbria University, Newcastle, UK
3Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Italy
Abstract. Oil spill models are used to forecast the transport and fate of oil after it has been released. CranSLIK is a model that predicts the movement and spread of a surface oil spill at sea via a stochastic approach. The aim of this work is to identify parameters that can further improve the forecasting algorithms and expand the functionality of CranSLIK, while maintaining the run-time efficiency of the method. The results from multiple simulations performed using the operational, validated oil spill model, MEDSLIK-II, were analysed using multiple regression in order to identify improvements which could be incorporated into CranSLIK. This has led to a revised model, namely CranSLIK v2.0, which was validated against MEDSLIK-II forecasts for real oil spill cases. The new version of CranSLIK demonstrated significant forecasting improvements by capturing the oil spill accurately in real validation cases and also proved capable of simulating a broader range of oil spill scenarios.

Citation: Rutherford, R., Moulitsas, I., Snow, B. J., Kolios, A. J., and De Dominicis, M.: CranSLIK v2.0: improving the stochastic prediction of oil spill transport and fate using approximation methods, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3365-3377, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3365-2015, 2015.
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Short summary
CranSLIK is a model that predicts the movement and spread of a surface oil spill at sea via a statistical approach that takes into account the random, and hence unpredictable, nature, of the affecting parameters. CranSLIK v2.0 demonstrated significant forecasting improvements by capturing the oil spill accurately in real oil spill validation cases and also proved capable of simulating a broader range of oil spill scenarios, while maintaining the run-time efficiency of the method.
CranSLIK is a model that predicts the movement and spread of a surface oil spill at sea via a...
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