Journal cover Journal topic
Geoscientific Model Development An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3751-3777, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3751-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Model experiment description paper
25 Oct 2016
The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) contribution to CMIP6
George J. Boer1, Douglas M. Smith2, Christophe Cassou3, Francisco Doblas-Reyes4, Gokhan Danabasoglu5, Ben Kirtman6, Yochanan Kushnir7, Masahide Kimoto8, Gerald A. Meehl5, Rym Msadek3,12, Wolfgang A. Mueller9, Karl E. Taylor10, Francis Zwiers11, Michel Rixen13, Yohan Ruprich-Robert14, and Rosie Eade2 1Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria BC, Canada
2Met Office, Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
3Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)/CERFACS, CECI, UMR 5318 Toulouse, France
4Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA) and Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC-CNS), Barcelona, Spain
5National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, USA
6Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA
7Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, USA
8Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
9Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
10Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, USA
11Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Victoria BC, Canada
12Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA, Princeton, NJ, USA
13World Climate Research Programme, Geneva, Switzerland
14Atmosphere and Ocean Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
Abstract. The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) is a coordinated multi-model investigation into decadal climate prediction, predictability, and variability. The DCPP makes use of past experience in simulating and predicting decadal variability and forced climate change gained from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and elsewhere. It builds on recent improvements in models, in the reanalysis of climate data, in methods of initialization and ensemble generation, and in data treatment and analysis to propose an extended comprehensive decadal prediction investigation as a contribution to CMIP6 (Eyring et al., 2016) and to the WCRP Grand Challenge on Near Term Climate Prediction (Kushnir et al., 2016). The DCPP consists of three components. Component A comprises the production and analysis of an extensive archive of retrospective forecasts to be used to assess and understand historical decadal prediction skill, as a basis for improvements in all aspects of end-to-end decadal prediction, and as a basis for forecasting on annual to decadal timescales. Component B undertakes ongoing production, analysis and dissemination of experimental quasi-real-time multi-model forecasts as a basis for potential operational forecast production. Component C involves the organization and coordination of case studies of particular climate shifts and variations, both natural and naturally forced (e.g. the “hiatus”, volcanoes), including the study of the mechanisms that determine these behaviours. Groups are invited to participate in as many or as few of the components of the DCPP, each of which are separately prioritized, as are of interest to them.

The Decadal Climate Prediction Project addresses a range of scientific issues involving the ability of the climate system to be predicted on annual to decadal timescales, the skill that is currently and potentially available, the mechanisms involved in long timescale variability, and the production of forecasts of benefit to both science and society.


Citation: Boer, G. J., Smith, D. M., Cassou, C., Doblas-Reyes, F., Danabasoglu, G., Kirtman, B., Kushnir, Y., Kimoto, M., Meehl, G. A., Msadek, R., Mueller, W. A., Taylor, K. E., Zwiers, F., Rixen, M., Ruprich-Robert, Y., and Eade, R.: The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) contribution to CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3751-3777, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3751-2016, 2016.
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The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) investigates our ability to skilfully predict climate variations from a year to a decade ahead by means of a series of retrospective forecasts. Quasi-real-time forecasts are also produced for potential users. In addition, the DCPP investigates how perturbations such as volcanoes affect forecasts and, more broadly, what new information can be learned about the mechanisms governing climate variations by means of case studies of past climate behaviour.
The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) investigates our ability to skilfully predict...
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