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Geoscientific Model Development
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IF 5.154
5.697CiteScore
5.56SNIP 1.761
SJR 3.164
index 59h5-index 49
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Abstracted/indexed
Volume 9, issue 12
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4521–4545, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4521-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4521-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Special issue: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Experimental...
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4521–4545, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4521-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4521-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Model experiment description paper 21 Dec 2016
Model experiment description paper | 21 Dec 2016
Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) contribution to CMIP6
Sophie M. J. Nowicki et al.Related authors
Alice Barthel, Cecile Agosta, Christopher M. Little, Tore Hatterman, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Helene Seroussi, Fiammetta Straneo, and Thomas J. Bracegirdle
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-191, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-191, 2019
Manuscript under review for TC
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We compare existing coupled climate models to select a total of 6 models to provide forcing to the Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheet simulations of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6). We select models based on: (i) their representation of current climate near Antarctica and Greenland relative to observations, and (ii) their ability to sample a diversity of projected atmosphere and ocean changes over the 21st century.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Erika Simon, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Julien Brondex, Stephen Cornford, Christophe Dumas, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel Lowry, Matthias Mengel, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Anthony J. Payne, David Pollard, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Thomas J. Reerink, Ronja Reese, Christian B. Rodehacke, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Johannes Sutter, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Tong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 13, 1441–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, 2019
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We compare a wide range of Antarctic ice sheet simulations with varying initialization techniques and model parameters to understand the role they play on the projected evolution of this ice sheet under simple scenarios. Results are improved compared to previous assessments and show that continued improvements in the representation of the floating ice around Antarctica are critical to reduce the uncertainty in the future ice sheet contribution to sea level rise.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Tamsin Edwards, Matthew Beckley, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andy Aschwanden, Reinhard Calov, Olivier Gagliardini, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan Gregory, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Joseph H. Kennedy, Eric Larour, William H. Lipscomb, Sébastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Antony J. Payne, Christian Rodehacke, Martin Rückamp, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole Schlegel, Helene Seroussi, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Roderik van de Wal, and Florian A. Ziemen
The Cryosphere, 12, 1433–1460, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, 2018
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We have compared a wide spectrum of different initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community to define the modelled present-day Greenland ice sheet state as a starting point for physically based future-sea-level-change projections. Compared to earlier community-wide comparisons, we find better agreement across different models, which implies overall improvement of our understanding of what is needed to produce such initial states.
Stephen F. Price, Matthew J. Hoffman, Jennifer A. Bonin, Ian M. Howat, Thomas Neumann, Jack Saba, Irina Tezaur, Jeffrey Guerber, Don P. Chambers, Katherine J. Evans, Joseph H. Kennedy, Jan Lenaerts, William H. Lipscomb, Mauro Perego, Andrew G. Salinger, Raymond S. Tuminaro, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Sophie M. J. Nowicki
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 255–270, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-255-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-255-2017, 2017
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We introduce the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CmCt) and propose qualitative and quantitative metrics for evaluating ice sheet model simulations against observations. Greenland simulations using the Community Ice Sheet Model are compared to gravimetry and altimetry observations from 2003 to 2013. We show that the CmCt can be used to score simulations of increasing complexity relative to observations of dynamic change in Greenland over the past decade.
Christine F. Dow, Mauro A. Werder, Sophie Nowicki, and Ryan T. Walker
The Cryosphere, 10, 1381–1393, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1381-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1381-2016, 2016
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We examine the development and drainage of subglacial lakes in the Antarctic using a finite element hydrology model. Model outputs show development of slow-moving pressure waves initiated from water funneled from a large catchment into the ice stream. Lake drainage occurs due to downstream channel formation and changing system hydraulic gradients. These model outputs have implications for understanding controls on ice stream dynamics.
A. Levermann, R. Winkelmann, S. Nowicki, J. L. Fastook, K. Frieler, R. Greve, H. H. Hellmer, M. A. Martin, M. Meinshausen, M. Mengel, A. J. Payne, D. Pollard, T. Sato, R. Timmermann, W. L. Wang, and R. A. Bindschadler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 271–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-271-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-271-2014, 2014
R. Fischer, S. Nowicki, M. Kelley, and G. A. Schmidt
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 883–907, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-883-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-883-2014, 2014
Laurie Menviel, Emilie Capron, Aline Govin, Andrea Dutton, Lev Tarasov, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Russell N. Drysdale, Philip L. Gibbard, Lauren Gregoire, Feng He, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Masa Kageyama, Kenji Kawamura, Amaelle Landais, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ikumi Oyabu, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, Eric Wolff, and Xu Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3649–3685, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3649-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3649-2019, 2019
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As part of the Past Global Changes (PAGES) working group on Quaternary Interglacials, we propose a protocol to perform transient simulations of the penultimate deglaciation for the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4). This design includes time-varying changes in orbital forcing, greenhouse gas concentrations, continental ice sheets as well as freshwater input from the disintegration of continental ice sheets. Key paleo-records for model-data comparison are also included.
Alice Barthel, Cecile Agosta, Christopher M. Little, Tore Hatterman, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Helene Seroussi, Fiammetta Straneo, and Thomas J. Bracegirdle
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-191, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-191, 2019
Manuscript under review for TC
Short summary
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We compare existing coupled climate models to select a total of 6 models to provide forcing to the Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheet simulations of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6). We select models based on: (i) their representation of current climate near Antarctica and Greenland relative to observations, and (ii) their ability to sample a diversity of projected atmosphere and ocean changes over the 21st century.
Heiko Goelzer, Violaine Coulon, Frank Pattyn, Bas de Boer, and Roderik van de Wal
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-185, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-185, 2019
Manuscript under review for TC
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In our ice-sheet modelling experience and from exchange with colleagues in different groups we found that it is not always clear how to calculate the sea-level contribution from a marine ice sheet model. This goes hand in hand with a lack of documentation and transparency in the published literature on how the sea-level contribution is estimated in different models. With this brief communication, we hope to stimulate awareness and discussion in the community to improve on this situation.
Matt Trevers, Antony J. Payne, Stephen L. Cornford, and Twila Moon
The Cryosphere, 13, 1877–1887, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1877-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1877-2019, 2019
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Iceberg calving is a major factor in the retreat of outlet glaciers of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Massive block overturning calving events occur at major outlet glaciers. A major calving event in 2009 was triggered by the release of a smaller block of ice from above the waterline. Using a numerical model, we investigate the feasibility of this mechanism to drive large calving events. We find that relatively small perturbations induce forces large enough to open cracks in ice at the glacier bed.
Christopher Horvat, Lettie Roach, Rachel Tilling, Cecilia Bitz, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Colin Guider, Kaitlin Hill, Andy Ridout, and Andrew Sheperd
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-134, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-134, 2019
Manuscript under review for TC
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Changes in the floe size distribution (FSD) are important for sea ice evolution, but to date largely unobserved and unknown. Climate models, forecast centers, and captains cannot currently obtain statistical information about sea ice floe size on demand. We develop a new method to observe the FSD at global scales and high temporal and spatial resolution. With refinement, this method can provide crucial information for polar ship routing and real-time forecasting.
Akitomo Yamamoto, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Rumi Ohgaito, Akinori Ito, and Akira Oka
Clim. Past, 15, 981–996, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-981-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-981-2019, 2019
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Proxy records of glacial oxygen change provide constraints on the contribution of the biological pump to glacial CO2 decrease. Here, we report our numerical simulation which successfully reproduces records of glacial oxygen changes and shows the significance of iron supply from glaciogenic dust. Our model simulations clarify that the enhanced efficiency of the biological pump is responsible for glacial CO2 decline of more than 30 ppm and approximately half of deep-ocean deoxygenation.
Anders Levermann, Ricarda Winkelmann, Torsten Albrecht, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Philippe Huybrechts, Jim Jordan, Gunter Leguy, Daniel Martin, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, David Pollard, Aurelien Quiquet, Christian Rodehacke, Helene Seroussi, Johannes Sutter, Tong Zhang, Jonas Van Breedam, Robert DeConto, Christophe Dumas, Julius Garbe, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, William Lipscomb, Malte Meinshausen, Esmond Ng, Mauro Perego, Stephen F. Price, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Sainan Sun, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-23, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-23, 2019
Manuscript under review for ESD
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We provide an estimated of the future sea level contribution of Antarctica from basal ice shelf melting up to the year 2100. The full uncertainty range in warming related forcing of basal melt is estimated and applied to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models using a linear response theory approach. The sea level contribution we obtain is very likely below 59 cm under unmitigated climate change until 2100 (RCP-8.5) and very likely below 39 cm if the Paris Climate Agreement is kept.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Erika Simon, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Julien Brondex, Stephen Cornford, Christophe Dumas, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel Lowry, Matthias Mengel, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Anthony J. Payne, David Pollard, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Thomas J. Reerink, Ronja Reese, Christian B. Rodehacke, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Johannes Sutter, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Tong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 13, 1441–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, 2019
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We compare a wide range of Antarctic ice sheet simulations with varying initialization techniques and model parameters to understand the role they play on the projected evolution of this ice sheet under simple scenarios. Results are improved compared to previous assessments and show that continued improvements in the representation of the floating ice around Antarctica are critical to reduce the uncertainty in the future ice sheet contribution to sea level rise.
Donald Slater, Fiamma Straneo, Denis Felikson, Chris Little, Heiko Goelzer, Xavier Fettweis, and James Holte
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-98, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-98, 2019
Manuscript under review for TC
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The ocean's influence on the retreat of Greenland's tidewater glaciers is a key factor determining future sea level. By considering observations of ∼200 glaciers and their climate forcing since 1960 we find a significant relationship between terminus position and submarine melting. Projected forwards, the relationship estimates the future evolution of Greenland’s marine margin and provides a practical and empirically-validated means of representing ice-ocean interaction in large-scale models.
Joshua K. Cuzzone, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Mathieu Morlighem, Eric Larour, Jason P. Briner, Helene Seroussi, and Lambert Caron
The Cryosphere, 13, 879–893, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-879-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-879-2019, 2019
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We present ice sheet modeling results of ice retreat over southwestern Greenland during the last 12 000 years, and we also test the impact that model horizontal resolution has on differences in the simulated spatial retreat and its associated rate. Results indicate that model resolution plays a minor role in simulated retreat in areas where bed topography is not complex but plays an important role in areas where bed topography is complex (such as fjords).
Malcolm McMillan, Alan Muir, Andrew Shepherd, Roger Escolà, Mònica Roca, Jérémie Aublanc, Pierre Thibaut, Marco Restano, Américo Ambrozio, and Jérôme Benveniste
The Cryosphere, 13, 709–722, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-709-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-709-2019, 2019
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Melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets is one of the main causes of current sea level rise. Understanding ice sheet change requires large-scale systematic satellite monitoring programmes. This study provides the first assessment of a new long-term source of measurements, from Sentinel-3 satellite altimetry. We estimate the accuracy of Sentinel-3 across Antarctica, show that the satellite can detect regions that are rapidly losing ice, and identify signs of subglacial lake activity.
Mathieu Morlighem, Michael Wood, Hélène Seroussi, Youngmin Choi, and Eric Rignot
The Cryosphere, 13, 723–734, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-723-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-723-2019, 2019
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Many glaciers along the coast of Greenland have been retreating. It has been suggested that this retreat is triggered by the presence of warm water in the fjords, and surface melt at the top of the ice sheet is exacerbating this problem. Here, we quantify the vulnerability of northwestern Greenland to further warming using a numerical model. We find that in current conditions, this sector alone will contribute more than 1 cm to sea rise level by 2100, and up to 3 cm in the most extreme scenario.
Sarah Shannon, Robin Smith, Andy Wiltshire, Tony Payne, Matthias Huss, Richard Betts, John Caesar, Aris Koutroulis, Darren Jones, and Stephan Harrison
The Cryosphere, 13, 325–350, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-325-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-325-2019, 2019
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We present global glacier volume projections for the end of this century, under a range of high-end climate change scenarios, defined as exceeding 2 °C global average warming. The ice loss contribution to sea level rise for all glaciers excluding those on the peripheral of the Antarctic ice sheet is 215.2 ± 21.3 mm. Such large ice losses will have consequences for sea level rise and for water supply in glacier-fed river systems.
Thiago Dias dos Santos, Mathieu Morlighem, Hélène Seroussi, Philippe Remy Bernard Devloo, and Jefferson Cardia Simões
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 215–232, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-215-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-215-2019, 2019
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The reduction of numerical errors in ice sheet modeling increases the results' accuracy reliability. We improve numerical accuracy by better capturing grounding line dynamics, while maintaining a low computational cost. We implement an adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) technique in the Ice Sheet System Model and compare AMR simulations with uniformly refined meshes. Our results show that the computational time with AMR is significantly shorter than for uniformly refined meshes for a given accuracy.
Hongju Yu, Eric Rignot, Helene Seroussi, and Mathieu Morlighem
The Cryosphere, 12, 3861–3876, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3861-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3861-2018, 2018
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Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, has experienced rapid grounding line retreat and mass loss in the past decades. In this study, we simulate the evolution of Thwaites Glacier over the next century using different model configurations. Overall, we estimate a 5 mm contribution to global sea level rise from Thwaites Glacier in the next 30 years. However, a 300 % uncertainty is found over the next 100 years, ranging from 14 to 42 mm, depending on the model setup.
Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Helene Seroussi, Michael P. Schodlok, Eric Y. Larour, Carmen Boening, Daniel Limonadi, Michael M. Watkins, Mathieu Morlighem, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 12, 3511–3534, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3511-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3511-2018, 2018
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Using NASA supercomputers and a novel framework, in which Sandia National Laboratories' statistical software is embedded in the Jet Propulsion Laboratory's ice sheet model, we run a range of 100-year warming scenarios for Antarctica. We find that 1.2 m of sea level contribution is achievable, but not likely. Also, we find that bedrock topography beneath the ice drives potential for regional sea level contribution, highlighting the need for accurate bedrock mapping of the ice sheet interior.
Rumi Ohgaito, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Ryouta O'ishi, Toshihiko Takemura, Akinori Ito, Tomohiro Hajima, Shingo Watanabe, and Michio Kawamiya
Clim. Past, 14, 1565–1581, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1565-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1565-2018, 2018
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The behaviour of dust in terms of climate can be investigated using past climate. The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21000 years before present) is known to be dustier. We investigated the impact of plausible dust distribution on the climate of the LGM using an Earth system model and found that the higher dust load results in less cooling over the polar regions. The main finding is that radiative perturbation by the high dust loading does not necessarily cool the surface surrounding Antarctica.
Hélène Seroussi and Mathieu Morlighem
The Cryosphere, 12, 3085–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3085-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3085-2018, 2018
Laurie Menviel, Emilie Capron, Aline Govin, Andrea Dutton, Lev Tarasov, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Russell Drysdale, Philip Gibbard, Lauren Gregoire, Feng He, Ruza Ivanovic, Masa Kageyama, Kenji Kawamura, Amaelle Landais, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ikumi Oyabu, Polychronis Tzedakis, Eric Wolff, and Xu Zhang
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-106, 2018
Publication in CP not foreseen
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The penultimate deglaciation (~ 138–128 ka), which represents the transition into the Last Interglacial period, provides a framework to investigate the climate and environmental response to large changes in boundary conditions. Here, as part of the PAGES-PMIP working group on Quaternary Interglacials, we propose a protocol to perform transient simulations of the penultimate deglaciation as well as a selection of paleo records for upcoming model-data comparisons.
Akitomo Yamamoto, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, and Yasuhiro Yamanaka
Biogeosciences, 15, 4163–4180, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4163-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4163-2018, 2018
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Millennial-scale changes in oceanic CO2 uptake due to global warming are simulated by a GCM and offline biogeochemical model. Sensitivity studies show that decreases in oceanic CO2 uptake are mainly caused by a weaker biological pump and seawater warming. Enhanced CO2 uptake due to weaker equatorial upwelling cancels out reduced CO2 uptake due to weaker AMOC and AABW formation. Thus, circulation change plays only a small direct role in reduction of CO2 uptake due to global warming.
Adriano Lemos, Andrew Shepherd, Malcolm McMillan, Anna E. Hogg, Emma Hatton, and Ian Joughin
The Cryosphere, 12, 2087–2097, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2087-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2087-2018, 2018
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We present time-series of ice surface velocities on four key outlet glaciers in Greenland, derived from sequential satellite imagery acquired between October 2014 and February 2017. We demonstrate it is possible to resolve seasonal and inter-annual changes in outlet glacier with an estimated certainty of 10 %. These datasets are key for the timely identification of emerging signals of dynamic imbalance and for understanding the processes driving ice velocity change.
Joshua K. Cuzzone, Mathieu Morlighem, Eric Larour, Nicole Schlegel, and Helene Seroussi
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1683–1694, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1683-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1683-2018, 2018
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This paper details the implementation of higher-order vertical finite elements in the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM). When using higher-order vertical finite elements, fewer vertical layers are needed to accurately capture the thermal structure in an ice sheet versus a conventional linear vertical interpolation, therefore greatly improving model runtime speeds, particularly in higher-order stress balance ice sheet models. The implications for paleoclimate ice sheet simulations are discussed.
Thomas Slater, Andrew Shepherd, Malcolm McMillan, Alan Muir, Lin Gilbert, Anna E. Hogg, Hannes Konrad, and Tommaso Parrinello
The Cryosphere, 12, 1551–1562, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1551-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1551-2018, 2018
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We present a new digital elevation model of Antarctica derived from 6 years of elevation measurements acquired by ESA's CryoSat-2 satellite radar altimeter. We compare our elevation model to an independent set of NASA IceBridge airborne laser altimeter measurements and find the overall accuracy to be 9.5 m – a value comparable to or better than that of other models derived from satellite altimetry. The new CryoSat-2 digital elevation model of Antarctica will be made freely available.
Konstanze Haubner, Jason E. Box, Nicole J. Schlegel, Eric Y. Larour, Mathieu Morlighem, Anne M. Solgaard, Kristian K. Kjeldsen, Signe H. Larsen, Eric Rignot, Todd K. Dupont, and Kurt H. Kjær
The Cryosphere, 12, 1511–1522, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1511-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1511-2018, 2018
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We investigate the effect of neglecting calving on Upernavik Isstrøm, West Greenland, between 1849 and 2012.
Our simulation is forced with observed terminus positions in discrete time steps and is responsive to the prescribed ice front changes.
Simulated frontal retreat is needed to obtain a realistic ice surface elevation and velocity evolution of Upernavik.
Using the prescribed terminus position change we gain insight to mass loss partitioning during different time periods.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Tamsin Edwards, Matthew Beckley, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andy Aschwanden, Reinhard Calov, Olivier Gagliardini, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan Gregory, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Joseph H. Kennedy, Eric Larour, William H. Lipscomb, Sébastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Antony J. Payne, Christian Rodehacke, Martin Rückamp, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole Schlegel, Helene Seroussi, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Roderik van de Wal, and Florian A. Ziemen
The Cryosphere, 12, 1433–1460, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, 2018
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We have compared a wide spectrum of different initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community to define the modelled present-day Greenland ice sheet state as a starting point for physically based future-sea-level-change projections. Compared to earlier community-wide comparisons, we find better agreement across different models, which implies overall improvement of our understanding of what is needed to produce such initial states.
Masa Kageyama, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Alan M. Haywood, Johann H. Jungclaus, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Chris Brierley, Michel Crucifix, Aisling Dolan, Laura Fernandez-Donado, Hubertus Fischer, Peter O. Hopcroft, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Fabrice Lambert, Daniel J. Lunt, Natalie M. Mahowald, W. Richard Peltier, Steven J. Phipps, Didier M. Roche, Gavin A. Schmidt, Lev Tarasov, Paul J. Valdes, Qiong Zhang, and Tianjun Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1033–1057, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, 2018
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The Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) takes advantage of the existence of past climate states radically different from the recent past to test climate models used for climate projections and to better understand these climates. This paper describes the PMIP contribution to CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, 6th phase) and possible analyses based on PMIP results, as well as on other CMIP6 projects.
David Hassell, Jonathan Gregory, Jon Blower, Bryan N. Lawrence, and Karl E. Taylor
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4619–4646, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4619-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4619-2017, 2017
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We present a formal data model for version 1.6 of the CF (Climate and Forecast) metadata conventions that provide a description of the physical meaning of geoscientific data and their spatial and temporal properties. We describe the CF conventions and how they lead to our CF data model, and compare it other data models for storing data and metadata. We present cf-python version 2.1: a software implementation of the CF data model capable of manipulating any CF-compliant dataset.
Eric Larour, Daniel Cheng, Gilberto Perez, Justin Quinn, Mathieu Morlighem, Bao Duong, Lan Nguyen, Kit Petrie, Silva Harounian, Daria Halkides, and Wayne Hayes
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4393–4403, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4393-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4393-2017, 2017
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This work presents a new way of carrying out simulations using the C++ based Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) within a web page. This allows for a new generation of websites that can rely on the entire code of a climate model, without compromising or simplifying the physics implemented in such a model. We believe this approach will enable better education/outreach websites as well as improve access to complex climate models without compromising their integrity.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Daniel J. Lunt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Emilie Capron, Anders E. Carlson, Andrea Dutton, Hubertus Fischer, Heiko Goelzer, Aline Govin, Alan Haywood, Fortunat Joos, Allegra N. LeGrande, William H. Lipscomb, Gerrit Lohmann, Natalie Mahowald, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Steven J. Phipps, Hans Renssen, and Qiong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3979–4003, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, 2017
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The PMIP4 and CMIP6 mid-Holocene and Last Interglacial simulations provide an opportunity to examine the impact of two different changes in insolation forcing on climate at times when other forcings were relatively similar to present. This will allow exploration of the role of feedbacks relevant to future projections. Evaluating these simulations using paleoenvironmental data will provide direct out-of-sample tests of the reliability of state-of-the-art models to simulate climate changes.
Masa Kageyama, Samuel Albani, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Peter O. Hopcroft, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Fabrice Lambert, Olivier Marti, W. Richard Peltier, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Didier M. Roche, Lev Tarasov, Xu Zhang, Esther C. Brady, Alan M. Haywood, Allegra N. LeGrande, Daniel J. Lunt, Natalie M. Mahowald, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Hans Renssen, Robert A. Tomas, Qiong Zhang, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Patrick J. Bartlein, Jian Cao, Qiang Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Rumi Ohgaito, Xiaoxu Shi, Evgeny Volodin, Kohei Yoshida, Xiao Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4035–4055, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, 2017
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21000 years ago) is an interval when global ice volume was at a maximum, eustatic sea level close to a minimum, greenhouse gas concentrations were lower, atmospheric aerosol loadings were higher than today, and vegetation and land-surface characteristics were different from today. This paper describes the implementation of the LGM numerical experiment for the PMIP4-CMIP6 modelling intercomparison projects and the associated sensitivity experiments.
Peter Kuipers Munneke, Daniel McGrath, Brooke Medley, Adrian Luckman, Suzanne Bevan, Bernd Kulessa, Daniela Jansen, Adam Booth, Paul Smeets, Bryn Hubbard, David Ashmore, Michiel Van den Broeke, Heidi Sevestre, Konrad Steffen, Andrew Shepherd, and Noel Gourmelen
The Cryosphere, 11, 2411–2426, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2411-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2411-2017, 2017
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How much snow falls on the Larsen C ice shelf? This is a relevant question, because this ice shelf might collapse sometime this century. To know if and when this could happen, we found out how much snow falls on its surface. This was difficult, because there are only very few measurements. Here, we used data from automatic weather stations, sled-pulled radars, and a climate model to find that melting the annual snowfall produces about 20 cm of water in the NE and over 70 cm in the SW.
Hongju Yu, Eric Rignot, Mathieu Morlighem, and Helene Seroussi
The Cryosphere, 11, 1283–1296, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1283-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1283-2017, 2017
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We combine 2-D ice flow model with linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) to model the calving behavior of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica. We find the combination of full-Stokes (FS) model and LEFM produces crevasses that are consistent with observations. We also find that calving is enhanced with pre-existing surface crevasses, shorter ice shelves or undercut at the ice shelf front. We conclude that the FS/LEFM combination is capable of constraining crevasse formation and iceberg calving.
Stephen F. Price, Matthew J. Hoffman, Jennifer A. Bonin, Ian M. Howat, Thomas Neumann, Jack Saba, Irina Tezaur, Jeffrey Guerber, Don P. Chambers, Katherine J. Evans, Joseph H. Kennedy, Jan Lenaerts, William H. Lipscomb, Mauro Perego, Andrew G. Salinger, Raymond S. Tuminaro, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Sophie M. J. Nowicki
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 255–270, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-255-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-255-2017, 2017
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We introduce the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CmCt) and propose qualitative and quantitative metrics for evaluating ice sheet model simulations against observations. Greenland simulations using the Community Ice Sheet Model are compared to gravimetry and altimetry observations from 2003 to 2013. We show that the CmCt can be used to score simulations of increasing complexity relative to observations of dynamic change in Greenland over the past decade.
Feras Habbal, Eric Larour, Mathieu Morlighem, Helene Seroussi, Christopher P. Borstad, and Eric Rignot
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 155–168, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-155-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-155-2017, 2017
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This work presents the results from testing a suite of numerical solvers on a standard ice sheet benchmark test. We note the relevance of this test to practical simulations and identify the fastest solvers for the transient simulation. The highlighted solvers show significant speed-ups in relation to the default solver (~1.5–100 times faster) and enable a new capability for solving massive, high-resolution models that are critical for improving projections of ice sheets and sea-level change.
Heiko Goelzer, Philippe Huybrechts, Marie-France Loutre, and Thierry Fichefet
Clim. Past, 12, 2195–2213, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2195-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2195-2016, 2016
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We simulate the climate, ice sheet, and sea-level evolution during the Last Interglacial (~ 130 to 115 kyr BP), the most recent warm period in Earth’s history. Our Earth system model includes components representing the atmosphere, the ocean and sea ice, the terrestrial biosphere, and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Our simulation is in good agreement with available data reconstructions and gives important insights into the dominant mechanisms that caused ice sheet changes in the past.
Peter Good, Timothy Andrews, Robin Chadwick, Jean-Louis Dufresne, Jonathan M. Gregory, Jason A. Lowe, Nathalie Schaller, and Hideo Shiogama
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4019–4028, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4019-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4019-2016, 2016
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The nonlinMIP model intercomparison project is described. nonlinMIP provides experiments that account for state-dependent regional and global climate responses. The experiments have two main applications: 1) to focus understanding of responses to CO2 forcing on states relevant to specific policy or scientific questions (e.g.
change under low-forcing scenarios, the benefits of mitigation, or from past cold climates to
the present day), or 2) to understand state dependence of climate responses.
Jonathan M. Gregory, Nathaelle Bouttes, Stephen M. Griffies, Helmuth Haak, William J. Hurlin, Johann Jungclaus, Maxwell Kelley, Warren G. Lee, John Marshall, Anastasia Romanou, Oleg A. Saenko, Detlef Stammer, and Michael Winton
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3993–4017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3993-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3993-2016, 2016
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As a consequence of greenhouse gas emissions, changes in ocean temperature, salinity, circulation and sea level are expected in coming decades. Among the models used for climate projections for the 21st century, there is a large spread in projections of these effects. The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) aims to investigate and explain this spread by prescribing a common set of changes in the input of heat, water and wind stress to the ocean in the participating models.
Eric Larour, Jean Utke, Anton Bovin, Mathieu Morlighem, and Gilberto Perez
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3907–3918, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3907-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3907-2016, 2016
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We present an approach to derive the adjoint state of the C++ coded Ice Sheet System Model. The approach enables data assimilation of observations to improve projections of polar ice sheet mass balance and contribution to sea-level rise. It is applicable to other Earth science frameworks relying on C++ and parallel computing, is non-intrusive, and enables computation of transient adjoints for any type of physics, hence providing insights into the sensitivities of any model to its inputs.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Daniel J. Lunt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Emilie Capron, Anders E. Carlson, Andrea Dutton, Hubertus Fischer, Heiko Goelzer, Aline Govin, Alan Haywood, Fortunat Joos, Allegra N. Legrande, William H. Lipscomb, Gerrit Lohmann, Natalie Mahowald, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Jean-Yves Peterschmidt, Francesco S.-R. Pausata, Steven Phipps, and Hans Renssen
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-106, 2016
Publication in CP not foreseen
Emma J. Stone, Emilie Capron, Daniel J. Lunt, Antony J. Payne, Joy S. Singarayer, Paul J. Valdes, and Eric W. Wolff
Clim. Past, 12, 1919–1932, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1919-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1919-2016, 2016
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Climate models forced only with greenhouse gas concentrations and orbital parameters representative of the early Last Interglacial are unable to reproduce the observed colder-than-present temperatures in the North Atlantic and the warmer-than-present temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere. Using a climate model forced also with a freshwater amount derived from data representing melting from the remnant Northern Hemisphere ice sheets accounts for this response via the bipolar seesaw mechanism.
Stephen M. Griffies, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Paul J. Durack, Alistair J. Adcroft, V. Balaji, Claus W. Böning, Eric P. Chassignet, Enrique Curchitser, Julie Deshayes, Helge Drange, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Peter J. Gleckler, Jonathan M. Gregory, Helmuth Haak, Robert W. Hallberg, Patrick Heimbach, Helene T. Hewitt, David M. Holland, Tatiana Ilyina, Johann H. Jungclaus, Yoshiki Komuro, John P. Krasting, William G. Large, Simon J. Marsland, Simona Masina, Trevor J. McDougall, A. J. George Nurser, James C. Orr, Anna Pirani, Fangli Qiao, Ronald J. Stouffer, Karl E. Taylor, Anne Marie Treguier, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Petteri Uotila, Maria Valdivieso, Qiang Wang, Michael Winton, and Stephen G. Yeager
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3231–3296, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3231-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3231-2016, 2016
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The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) aims to provide a framework for evaluating, understanding, and improving the ocean and sea-ice components of global climate and earth system models contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This document defines OMIP and details a protocol both for simulating global ocean/sea-ice models and for analysing their output.
Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, David N. Wiese, Eric Y. Larour, Michael M. Watkins, Jason E. Box, Xavier Fettweis, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 10, 1965–1989, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1965-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1965-2016, 2016
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We investigate Greenland Ice Sheet mass change from 2003–2012 by comparing observations from GRACE with state-of-the-art atmospheric and ice sheet model simulations. We find that the largest discrepancies (in the northwest and southeast) are likely controlled by errors in modeled surface climate as well as ice–ocean interaction and hydrological processes (not included in the models). Models should consider such processes at monthly to seasonal resolutions in order to improve future projections.
Rachel L. Tilling, Andy Ridout, and Andrew Shepherd
The Cryosphere, 10, 2003–2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2003-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2003-2016, 2016
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We use CryoSat-2 satellite data to provide the first near-real-time (NRT) measurements of absolute sea ice thickness across the entire Northern Hemisphere. We analyse our NRT sea-ice-thickness data for one sea ice growth season, from October 2014 to April 2015. Over that time period a NRT thickness measurement was delivered, on average, within 14, 7 and 6 km of each location in the Arctic every 2, 14 and 28 days respectively.
Heiko Goelzer, Philippe Huybrechts, Marie-France Loutre, and Thierry Fichefet
Clim. Past, 12, 1721–1737, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1721-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1721-2016, 2016
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We have modelled the climate evolution from 135 to 120 kyr BP with an Earth system model to study the onset of the Last Interglacial warm period. Ice sheet changes and associated freshwater fluxes in both hemispheres constitute an important forcing in the simulations. Freshwater fluxes from the melting Antarctic ice sheet are found to lead to an oceanic cold event in the Southern Ocean as evidenced in some ocean sediment cores, which may be used to constrain the timing of ice sheet retreat.
William H. G. Roberts, Antony J. Payne, and Paul J. Valdes
Clim. Past, 12, 1601–1617, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1601-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1601-2016, 2016
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There are observations from ocean sediment cores that during the last ice age the Laurentide Ice Sheet, which sat over North America, periodically surged. In this study we show the role that water at the base of an ice sheet plays in these surges. We show that with a more realistic representation of water drainage at the base of the ice sheet than usually used, these surges can still occur and that they are triggered by an internal ice sheet instability; no external trigger is needed.
Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Stephen L. Cornford, Gaël Durand, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert M. Gladstone, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Tore Hattermann, David M. Holland, Denise Holland, Paul R. Holland, Daniel F. Martin, Pierre Mathiot, Frank Pattyn, and Hélène Seroussi
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2471–2497, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2471-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2471-2016, 2016
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Coupled ice sheet–ocean models capable of simulating moving grounding lines are just becoming available. Such models have a broad range of potential applications in studying the dynamics of ice sheets and glaciers, including assessing their contributions to sea level change. Here we describe the idealized experiments that make up three interrelated Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) for marine ice sheet models and regional ocean circulation models incorporating ice shelf cavities.
Christine F. Dow, Mauro A. Werder, Sophie Nowicki, and Ryan T. Walker
The Cryosphere, 10, 1381–1393, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1381-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1381-2016, 2016
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We examine the development and drainage of subglacial lakes in the Antarctic using a finite element hydrology model. Model outputs show development of slow-moving pressure waves initiated from water funneled from a large catchment into the ice stream. Lake drainage occurs due to downstream channel formation and changing system hydraulic gradients. These model outputs have implications for understanding controls on ice stream dynamics.
Patrick M. Alexander, Marco Tedesco, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Scott B. Luthcke, Xavier Fettweis, and Eric Larour
The Cryosphere, 10, 1259–1277, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1259-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1259-2016, 2016
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We compared satellite-derived estimates of spatial and seasonal variations in Greenland Ice Sheet mass with a set of model simulations, revealing an agreement between models and satellite estimates for the ice-sheet-wide seasonal fluctuations in mass, but disagreement at finer spatial scales. The model simulations underestimate low-elevation mass loss. Improving the ability of models to capture variations and trends in Greenland Ice Sheet mass is important for estimating future sea level rise.
Hongju Yu, Eric Rignot, Mathieu Morlighem, and Helene Seroussi
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2016-101, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2016-101, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We performed a 2D Full-Stokes (FS) modeling study of grounding line dynamics and calving of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica. We compare FS with simplified models on grounding line migration and we combine FS with Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics to simulate crevasse propagation. We find that only FS is able to provide reliable grounding line migration and to explain observed crevasse. We conclude that it may be essential to employ FS in the grounding line region for 2D simulations.
Fergus W. Howell, Alan M. Haywood, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Fran Bragg, Wing-Le Chan, Mark A. Chandler, Camille Contoux, Youichi Kamae, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nan A. Rosenbloom, Christian Stepanek, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 12, 749–767, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-749-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-749-2016, 2016
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Simulations of pre-industrial and mid-Pliocene Arctic sea ice by eight GCMs are analysed. Ensemble variability in sea ice extent is greater in the mid-Pliocene summer, when half of the models simulate sea-ice-free conditions. Weaker correlations are seen between sea ice extent and temperatures in the pre-industrial era compared to the mid-Pliocene. The need for more comprehensive sea ice proxy data is highlighted, in order to better compare model performances.
Surendra Adhikari, Erik R. Ivins, and Eric Larour
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1087–1109, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1087-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1087-2016, 2016
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We present a numerically accurate, computationally efficient, (km-scale) high-resolution model for gravitationally consistent relative sea level that, unlike contemporary state-of-the-art models, operates efficiently on an unstructured mesh. The model is useful for earth system modeling and space geodesy. A straightforward and computationally less burdensome coupling to a dynamical ice-sheet model, for example, allows a refined and realistic simulation of fast-flowing outlet glaciers.
Alan M. Haywood, Harry J. Dowsett, Aisling M. Dolan, David Rowley, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Mark A. Chandler, Stephen J. Hunter, Daniel J. Lunt, Matthew Pound, and Ulrich Salzmann
Clim. Past, 12, 663–675, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-663-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-663-2016, 2016
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Our paper presents the experimental design for the second phase of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). We outline the way in which climate models should be set up in order to study the Pliocene – a period of global warmth in Earth's history which is relevant for our understanding of future climate change. By conducting a model intercomparison we hope to understand the uncertainty associated with model predictions of a warmer climate.
Johannes H. Bondzio, Hélène Seroussi, Mathieu Morlighem, Thomas Kleiner, Martin Rückamp, Angelika Humbert, and Eric Y. Larour
The Cryosphere, 10, 497–510, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-497-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-497-2016, 2016
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We implemented a level-set method in the ice sheet system model. This method allows us to dynamically evolve a calving front subject to user-defined calving rates. We apply the method to Jakobshavn Isbræ, West Greenland, and study its response to calving rate perturbations. We find its behaviour strongly dependent on the calving rate, which was to be expected. Both reduced basal drag and rheological shear margin weakening sustain the acceleration of this dynamic outlet glacier.
F. Saito, A. Abe-Ouchi, K. Takahashi, and H. Blatter
The Cryosphere, 10, 43–63, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-43-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-43-2016, 2016
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This article, as the title denotes, is a follow-up study of an ice-sheet intercomparison project SeaRISE, which focuses on the response of the Greenland ice sheet to future global warming. The projections of the different SeaRISE prticipants show diversion, which has not been examined in detail to date. This study detects the main sources of the diversion by a number of sensitivity experiments and shows the importance of initialization methods as well as climate forcing methods.
A. Abe-Ouchi, F. Saito, M. Kageyama, P. Braconnot, S. P. Harrison, K. Lambeck, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, W. R. Peltier, L. Tarasov, J.-Y. Peterschmitt, and K. Takahashi
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3621–3637, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3621-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3621-2015, 2015
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We describe the creation of boundary conditions related to the presence of ice sheets, including ice-sheet extent and height, ice-shelf extent, and the distribution and altitude of ice-free land, at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), for use in LGM experiments conducted as part of the Coupled Modelling Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3). The difference in the ice sheet boundary conditions as well as the climate response to them are discussed.
K. Le Morzadec, L. Tarasov, M. Morlighem, and H. Seroussi
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3199–3213, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3199-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3199-2015, 2015
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A long-term challenge for any model of complex large-scale processes
is accounting for the impact of unresolved sub-grid (SG) processes.
We quantify the impact of SG mass-balance and ice fluxes on glacial
cycle ensemble results for North America. We find no easy solutions to
accurately capture these impacts. We show that SG process
representation and associated parametric uncertainties can have
significant impact on coarse resolution model results for glacial
cycle ice sheet evolution.
S. L. Cornford, D. F. Martin, A. J. Payne, E. G. Ng, A. M. Le Brocq, R. M. Gladstone, T. L. Edwards, S. R. Shannon, C. Agosta, M. R. van den Broeke, H. H. Hellmer, G. Krinner, S. R. M. Ligtenberg, R. Timmermann, and D. G. Vaughan
The Cryosphere, 9, 1579–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015, 2015
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We used a high-resolution ice sheet model capable of resolving grounding line dynamics (BISICLES) to compute responses of the major West Antarctic ice streams to projections of ocean and atmospheric warming. This is computationally demanding, and although other groups have considered parts of West Antarctica, we think this is the first calculation for the whole region at the sub-kilometer resolution that we show is required.
J. J. Fürst, H. Goelzer, and P. Huybrechts
The Cryosphere, 9, 1039–1062, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1039-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1039-2015, 2015
B. de Boer, A. M. Dolan, J. Bernales, E. Gasson, H. Goelzer, N. R. Golledge, J. Sutter, P. Huybrechts, G. Lohmann, I. Rogozhina, A. Abe-Ouchi, F. Saito, and R. S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 9, 881–903, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-881-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-881-2015, 2015
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We present results from simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet by means of an intercomparison project with six ice-sheet models. Our results demonstrate the difficulty of all models used here to simulate a significant retreat or re-advance of the East Antarctic ice grounding line. Improved grounding-line physics could be essential for a correct representation of the migration of the grounding line of the Antarctic ice sheet during the Pliocene.
S. J. Koenig, A. M. Dolan, B. de Boer, E. J. Stone, D. J. Hill, R. M. DeConto, A. Abe-Ouchi, D. J. Lunt, D. Pollard, A. Quiquet, F. Saito, J. Savage, and R. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 11, 369–381, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-369-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-369-2015, 2015
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The paper assess the Greenland Ice Sheet’s sensitivity to a warm period in the past, a time when atmospheric CO2 concentrations were comparable to current levels. We quantify ice sheet volume and locations in Greenland and find that the ice sheets are less sensitive to differences in ice sheet model configurations than to changes in imposed climate forcing. We conclude that Pliocene ice was most likely to be limited to highest elevations in eastern and southern Greenland.
A. M. Dolan, S. J. Hunter, D. J. Hill, A. M. Haywood, S. J. Koenig, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, A. Abe-Ouchi, F. Bragg, W.-L. Chan, M. A. Chandler, C. Contoux, A. Jost, Y. Kamae, G. Lohmann, D. J. Lunt, G. Ramstein, N. A. Rosenbloom, L. Sohl, C. Stepanek, H. Ueda, Q. Yan, and Z. Zhang
Clim. Past, 11, 403–424, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-403-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-403-2015, 2015
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Climate and ice sheet models are often used to predict the nature of ice sheets in Earth history. It is important to understand whether such predictions are consistent among different models, especially in warm periods of relevance to the future. We use input from 15 different climate models to run one ice sheet model and compare the predictions over Greenland. We find that there are large differences between the predicted ice sheets for the warm Pliocene (c. 3 million years ago).
F. Parrenin, S. Fujita, A. Abe-Ouchi, K. Kawamura, V. Masson-Delmotte, H. Motoyama, F. Saito, M. Severi, B. Stenni, R. Uemura, and E. Wolff
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-11-377-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-11-377-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
E. Larour, J. Utke, B. Csatho, A. Schenk, H. Seroussi, M. Morlighem, E. Rignot, N. Schlegel, and A. Khazendar
The Cryosphere, 8, 2335–2351, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2335-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2335-2014, 2014
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We present a temporal inversion of surface mass balance and basal friction for the Northeast Greenland Ice Sheet between 2003 and 2009, using the altimetry record from ICESat. The inversion relies on automatic differentiation of ISSM and demonstrates the feasibility of assimilating altimetry records into reconstructions of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The boundary conditions provide a snapshot of the state of the ice for this period and can be used for further process studies.
H. Seroussi, M. Morlighem, E. Larour, E. Rignot, and A. Khazendar
The Cryosphere, 8, 2075–2087, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2075-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2075-2014, 2014
H. Seroussi, M. Morlighem, E. Rignot, J. Mouginot, E. Larour, M. Schodlok, and A. Khazendar
The Cryosphere, 8, 1699–1710, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1699-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1699-2014, 2014
M. F. Loutre, T. Fichefet, H. Goosse, P. Huybrechts, H. Goelzer, and E. Capron
Clim. Past, 10, 1541–1565, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1541-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1541-2014, 2014
M. Heinemann, A. Timmermann, O. Elison Timm, F. Saito, and A. Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 10, 1567–1579, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1567-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1567-2014, 2014
A. Levermann, R. Winkelmann, S. Nowicki, J. L. Fastook, K. Frieler, R. Greve, H. H. Hellmer, M. A. Martin, M. Meinshausen, M. Mengel, A. J. Payne, D. Pollard, T. Sato, R. Timmermann, W. L. Wang, and R. A. Bindschadler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 271–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-271-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-271-2014, 2014
A. Robinson and H. Goelzer
The Cryosphere, 8, 1419–1428, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1419-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1419-2014, 2014
S. Adhikari, E. R. Ivins, E. Larour, H. Seroussi, M. Morlighem, and S. Nowicki
Solid Earth, 5, 569–584, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-5-569-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-5-569-2014, 2014
T. Howard, J. Ridley, A. K. Pardaens, R. T. W. L. Hurkmans, A. J. Payne, R. H. Giesen, J. A. Lowe, J. L. Bamber, T. L. Edwards, and J. Oerlemans
Ocean Sci., 10, 485–500, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-485-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-485-2014, 2014
Y. Gong, S. L. Cornford, and A. J. Payne
The Cryosphere, 8, 1057–1068, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1057-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1057-2014, 2014
R. Fischer, S. Nowicki, M. Kelley, and G. A. Schmidt
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 883–907, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-883-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-883-2014, 2014
T. L. Edwards, X. Fettweis, O. Gagliardini, F. Gillet-Chaulet, H. Goelzer, J. M. Gregory, M. Hoffman, P. Huybrechts, A. J. Payne, M. Perego, S. Price, A. Quiquet, and C. Ritz
The Cryosphere, 8, 181–194, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-181-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-181-2014, 2014
T. L. Edwards, X. Fettweis, O. Gagliardini, F. Gillet-Chaulet, H. Goelzer, J. M. Gregory, M. Hoffman, P. Huybrechts, A. J. Payne, M. Perego, S. Price, A. Quiquet, and C. Ritz
The Cryosphere, 8, 195–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-195-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-195-2014, 2014
D. J. Hill, A. M. Haywood, D. J. Lunt, S. J. Hunter, F. J. Bragg, C. Contoux, C. Stepanek, L. Sohl, N. A. Rosenbloom, W.-L. Chan, Y. Kamae, Z. Zhang, A. Abe-Ouchi, M. A. Chandler, A. Jost, G. Lohmann, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, G. Ramstein, and H. Ueda
Clim. Past, 10, 79–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-79-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-79-2014, 2014
B. Marzeion, A. H. Jarosch, and J. M. Gregory
The Cryosphere, 8, 59–71, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-59-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-59-2014, 2014
J. F. Levinsen, K. Khvorostovsky, F. Ticconi, A. Shepherd, R. Forsberg, L. S. Sørensen, A. Muir, N. Pie, D. Felikson, T. Flament, R. Hurkmans, G. Moholdt, B. Gunter, R. C. Lindenbergh, and M. Kleinherenbrink
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-7-5433-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-7-5433-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript not accepted
R. Zhang, Q. Yan, Z. S. Zhang, D. Jiang, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, A. M. Haywood, D. J. Hill, A. M. Dolan, C. Stepanek, G. Lohmann, C. Contoux, F. Bragg, W.-L. Chan, M. A. Chandler, A. Jost, Y. Kamae, A. Abe-Ouchi, G. Ramstein, N. A. Rosenbloom, L. Sohl, and H. Ueda
Clim. Past, 9, 2085–2099, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2085-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2085-2013, 2013
R. O'ishi and A. Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 9, 1571–1587, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1571-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1571-2013, 2013
R. Ohgaito, T. Sueyoshi, A. Abe-Ouchi, T. Hajima, S. Watanabe, H.-J. Kim, A. Yamamoto, and M. Kawamiya
Clim. Past, 9, 1519–1542, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1519-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1519-2013, 2013
Z.-S. Zhang, K. H. Nisancioglu, M. A. Chandler, A. M. Haywood, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, G. Ramstein, C. Stepanek, A. Abe-Ouchi, W.-L. Chan, F. J. Bragg, C. Contoux, A. M. Dolan, D. J. Hill, A. Jost, Y. Kamae, G. Lohmann, D. J. Lunt, N. A. Rosenbloom, L. E. Sohl, and H. Ueda
Clim. Past, 9, 1495–1504, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1495-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1495-2013, 2013
T. Sueyoshi, R. Ohgaito, A. Yamamoto, M. O. Chikamoto, T. Hajima, H. Okajima, M. Yoshimori, M. Abe, R. O'ishi, F. Saito, S. Watanabe, M. Kawamiya, and A. Abe-Ouchi
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 819–836, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-819-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-819-2013, 2013
M. Eby, A. J. Weaver, K. Alexander, K. Zickfeld, A. Abe-Ouchi, A. A. Cimatoribus, E. Crespin, S. S. Drijfhout, N. R. Edwards, A. V. Eliseev, G. Feulner, T. Fichefet, C. E. Forest, H. Goosse, P. B. Holden, F. Joos, M. Kawamiya, D. Kicklighter, H. Kienert, K. Matsumoto, I. I. Mokhov, E. Monier, S. M. Olsen, J. O. P. Pedersen, M. Perrette, G. Philippon-Berthier, A. Ridgwell, A. Schlosser, T. Schneider von Deimling, G. Shaffer, R. S. Smith, R. Spahni, A. P. Sokolov, M. Steinacher, K. Tachiiri, K. Tokos, M. Yoshimori, N. Zeng, and F. Zhao
Clim. Past, 9, 1111–1140, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, 2013
M. Kageyama, U. Merkel, B. Otto-Bliesner, M. Prange, A. Abe-Ouchi, G. Lohmann, R. Ohgaito, D. M. Roche, J. Singarayer, D. Swingedouw, and X Zhang
Clim. Past, 9, 935–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-935-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-935-2013, 2013
J. C. Hargreaves, J. D. Annan, R. Ohgaito, A. Paul, and A. Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 9, 811–823, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-811-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-811-2013, 2013
J. J. Fürst, H. Goelzer, and P. Huybrechts
The Cryosphere, 7, 183–199, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-183-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-183-2013, 2013
A. M. Haywood, D. J. Hill, A. M. Dolan, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, F. Bragg, W.-L. Chan, M. A. Chandler, C. Contoux, H. J. Dowsett, A. Jost, Y. Kamae, G. Lohmann, D. J. Lunt, A. Abe-Ouchi, S. J. Pickering, G. Ramstein, N. A. Rosenbloom, U. Salzmann, L. Sohl, C. Stepanek, H. Ueda, Q. Yan, and Z. Zhang
Clim. Past, 9, 191–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-191-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-191-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Climate and Earth System Modeling
The penultimate deglaciation: protocol for Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) phase 4 transient numerical simulations between 140 and 127 ka, version 1.0
The global aerosol–climate model ECHAM6.3–HAM2.3 – Part 2: Cloud evaluation, aerosol radiative forcing, and climate sensitivity
Global simulation of semivolatile organic compounds – development and evaluation of the MESSy submodel SVOC (v1.0)
The road weather model RoadSurf (v6.60b) driven by the regional climate model HCLIM38: evaluation over Finland
Climate projections of a multivariate heat stress index: the role of downscaling and bias correction
PatCC1: an efficient parallel triangulation algorithm for spherical and planar grids with commonality and parallel consistency
How can the First ISLSCP Field Experiment contribute to present-day efforts to evaluate water stress in JULESv5.0?
Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2) for the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP)
The DeepMIP contribution to PMIP4: methodologies for selection, compilation and analysis of latest Paleocene and early Eocene climate proxy data, incorporating version 0.1 of the DeepMIP database
How to use mixed precision in ocean models: exploring a potential reduction of numerical precision in NEMO 4.0 and ROMS 3.6
Comparison of different sequential assimilation algorithms for satellite-derived leaf area index using the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (version Lanai)
Progress towards a probabilistic Earth system model: examining the impact of stochasticity in the atmosphere and land component of EC-Earth v3.2
CLIMADA v1: a global weather and climate risk assessment platform
Reducing climate model biases by exploring parameter space with large ensembles of climate model simulations and statistical emulation
Incorporating wind sheltering and sediment heat flux into 1-D models of small boreal lakes: a case study with the Canadian Small Lake Model V2.0
Trend-preserving bias adjustment and statistical downscaling with ISIMIP3BASD (v1.0)
Significant improvement of cloud representation in the global climate model MRI-ESM2
Description and basic evaluation of simulated mean state, internal variability, and climate sensitivity in MIROC6
Quantitative stratigraphic analysis in a source-to-sink numerical framework
The UKC3 regional coupled environmental prediction system
The Monash Simple Climate Model experiments (MSCM-DB v1.0): an interactive database of mean climate, climate change, and scenario simulations
Evaluation of the WRF lake module (v1.0) and its improvements at a deep reservoir
Calculating the turbulent fluxes in the atmospheric surface layer with neural networks
BARRA v1.0: the Bureau of Meteorology Atmospheric high-resolution Regional Reanalysis for Australia
ATTILA 4.0: Lagrangian advective and convective transport of passive tracers within the ECHAM5/MESSy (2.53.0) chemistry–climate model
The Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 7.0/7.1 and JULES Global Land 7.0 configurations
A stochastic rupture earthquake code based on the fiber bundle model (TREMOL v0.1): application to Mexican subduction earthquakes
Efficient surrogate modeling methods for large-scale Earth system models based on machine-learning techniques
Calibration and analysis of the uncertainty in downscaling global land use and land cover projections from GCAM using Demeter (v1.0.0)
A statistical and process-oriented evaluation of cloud radiative effects in high-resolution global models
The Brazilian Earth System Model ocean–atmosphere (BESM-OA) version 2.5: evaluation of its CMIP5 historical simulation
The Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC-CSM): the main progress from CMIP5 to CMIP6
Fldgen v1.0: an emulator with internal variability and space–time correlation for Earth system models
Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century
HOMMEXX 1.0: a performance-portable atmospheric dynamical core for the Energy Exascale Earth System Model
A predictive algorithm for wetlands in deep time paleoclimate models
A crop yield change emulator for use in GCAM and similar models: Persephone v1.0
Evaluation of a Unique Approach to High-Resolution Climate Modelling using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) version 5.1
Toward an open-access of high-frequency lake modelling and statistics data for scientists and practitioners. The case of Swiss Lakes using Simstrat v2.1
Improvements to stratospheric chemistry scheme in the UM-UKCA (v10.7) model: solar cycle and heterogeneous reactions
Devito (v3.1.0): an embedded domain-specific language for finite differences and geophysical exploration
Scalability and some optimization of the Finite-volumE Sea ice-Ocean Model, Version 2.0 (FESOM2)
The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) contribution to CMIP6: investigating the causes and consequences of polar amplification
SEAS5: the new ECMWF seasonal forecast system
CORDEX-WRF v1.3: development of a module for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to support the CORDEX community
First forcing estimates from the future CMIP6 scenarios of anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomey effect
Developing a monthly albedo change radiative forcing kernel from satellite climatologies of Earth's shortwave radiation budget: CACK v1.0
The Cloud_cci simulator v1.0 for the Cloud_cci climate data record and its application to a global and a regional climate model
TheDiaTo (v1.0) – A new diagnostic tool for water, energy and entropy budgets in climate models
The Air-temperature Response to Green/blue-infrastructure Evaluation Tool (TARGET v1.0): an efficient and user-friendly model of city cooling
Laurie Menviel, Emilie Capron, Aline Govin, Andrea Dutton, Lev Tarasov, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Russell N. Drysdale, Philip L. Gibbard, Lauren Gregoire, Feng He, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Masa Kageyama, Kenji Kawamura, Amaelle Landais, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ikumi Oyabu, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, Eric Wolff, and Xu Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3649–3685, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3649-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3649-2019, 2019
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As part of the Past Global Changes (PAGES) working group on Quaternary Interglacials, we propose a protocol to perform transient simulations of the penultimate deglaciation for the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4). This design includes time-varying changes in orbital forcing, greenhouse gas concentrations, continental ice sheets as well as freshwater input from the disintegration of continental ice sheets. Key paleo-records for model-data comparison are also included.
David Neubauer, Sylvaine Ferrachat, Colombe Siegenthaler-Le Drian, Philip Stier, Daniel G. Partridge, Ina Tegen, Isabelle Bey, Tanja Stanelle, Harri Kokkola, and Ulrike Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3609–3639, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3609-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3609-2019, 2019
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The global aerosol–climate model ECHAM6.3–HAM2.3 as well as the previous model versions ECHAM5.5–HAM2.0 and ECHAM6.1–HAM2.2 are evaluated. The simulation of clouds has improved in ECHAM6.3–HAM2.3. This has an impact on effective radiative forcing due to aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions and equilibrium climate sensitivity, which are weaker in ECHAM6.3–HAM2.3 than in the previous model versions.
Mega Octaviani, Holger Tost, and Gerhard Lammel
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3585–3607, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3585-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3585-2019, 2019
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This work presents a submodel description for the atmospheric cycling and air–surface exchange processes of semivolatile organic compounds. The submodel is meant to be applied within a global atmospheric chemistry–climate model. The simulation results for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons confirm progress in modelling semivolatile species, verified by comparison with surface monitoring data. The significance of new modelling features for tracer distributions was quantified in a sensitivity study.
Erika Toivonen, Marjo Hippi, Hannele Korhonen, Ari Laaksonen, Markku Kangas, and Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3481–3501, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3481-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3481-2019, 2019
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We evaluated the skill of the road weather model RoadSurf to reproduce present-day road weather conditions in Finland when driven by a high-resolution regional climate model. Simulated road surface temperatures and conditions were compared to observations between 2002 and 2014 at 25 Finnish road weather stations. RoadSurf accurately captured the main characteristics of road weather conditions. Thus, this model can be used to study the future scenarios of road weather in the study area.
Ana Casanueva, Sven Kotlarski, Sixto Herrera, Andreas M. Fischer, Tord Kjellstrom, and Cornelia Schwierz
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3419–3438, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3419-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3419-2019, 2019
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Given the large number of available data sets and products currently produced for climate impact studies, it is challenging to distil the most accurate and useful information for climate services. This work presents a comparison of methods widely used to generate climate projections, from different sources and at different spatial resolutions, in order to assess the role of downscaling and statistical post-processing (bias correction).
Haoyu Yang, Li Liu, Cheng Zhang, Ruizhe Li, Chao Sun, Xinzhu Yu, Hao Yu, Zhiyuan Zhang, and Bin Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3311–3328, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3311-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3311-2019, 2019
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PatCC1 demonstrates that triangulation can achieve parallel efficiency, commonality, and parallel consistency (exactly the same result under different parallel settings) at the same time.
Karina E. Williams, Anna B. Harper, Chris Huntingford, Lina M. Mercado, Camilla T. Mathison, Pete D. Falloon, Peter M. Cox, and Joon Kim
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3207–3240, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3207-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3207-2019, 2019
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Data from the First ISLSCP Field Experiment, 1987–1989, is used to assess how well the JULES land-surface model simulates water stress in tallgrass prairie vegetation. We find that JULES simulates a decrease in key carbon and water cycle variables during the dry period, as expected, but that it does not capture the shape of the diurnal cycle on these days. These results will be used to inform future model development as part of wider evaluation efforts.
Oliver Gutjahr, Dian Putrasahan, Katja Lohmann, Johann H. Jungclaus, Jin-Song von Storch, Nils Brüggemann, Helmuth Haak, and Achim Stössel
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3241–3281, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3241-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3241-2019, 2019
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We analyse how climatic mean states of the atmosphere and ocean change with increasing the horizontal model resolution of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2) and how they are affected by the representation of vertical mixing in the ocean. It is in particular a high-resolution ocean that reduces biases not only in the ocean but also in the atmosphere. The vertical mixing scheme affects the strength and stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC).
Christopher J. Hollis, Tom Dunkley Jones, Eleni Anagnostou, Peter K. Bijl, Margot J. Cramwinckel, Ying Cui, Gerald R. Dickens, Kirsty M. Edgar, Yvette Eley, David Evans, Gavin L. Foster, Joost Frieling, Gordon N. Inglis, Elizabeth M. Kennedy, Reinhard Kozdon, Vittoria Lauretano, Caroline H. Lear, Kate Littler, Lucas Lourens, A. Nele Meckler, B. David A. Naafs, Heiko Pälike, Richard D. Pancost, Paul N. Pearson, Ursula Röhl, Dana L. Royer, Ulrich Salzmann, Brian A. Schubert, Hannu Seebeck, Appy Sluijs, Robert P. Speijer, Peter Stassen, Jessica Tierney, Aradhna Tripati, Bridget Wade, Thomas Westerhold, Caitlyn Witkowski, James C. Zachos, Yi Ge Zhang, Matthew Huber, and Daniel J. Lunt
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3149–3206, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3149-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3149-2019, 2019
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The Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP) is a model–data intercomparison of the early Eocene (around 55 million years ago), the last time that Earth's atmospheric CO2 concentrations exceeded 1000 ppm. Previously, we outlined the experimental design for climate model simulations. Here, we outline the methods used for compilation and analysis of climate proxy data. The resulting climate
atlaswill provide insights into the mechanisms that control past warm climate states.
Oriol Tintó Prims, Mario C. Acosta, Andrew M. Moore, Miguel Castrillo, Kim Serradell, Ana Cortés, and Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3135–3148, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3135-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3135-2019, 2019
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Mixed-precision approaches can provide substantial speed-ups for both computing- and memory-bound codes, requiring little effort. A novel method to enable modern and legacy codes to benefit from a reduction of precision without sacrificing accuracy is presented. Using a precision emulator and a divide-and-conquer algorithm it identifies the parts that cannot handle reduced precision and the ones that can. The method has been proved using two ocean models, NEMO and ROMS, with promising results.
Xiao-Lu Ling, Cong-Bin Fu, Zong-Liang Yang, and Wei-Dong Guo
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3119–3133, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3119-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3119-2019, 2019
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Observation and simulation can provide the temporal and spatial variation of vegetation characteristics, while they are not satisfactory for understanding the mechanism of the exchange between ecosystems and atmosphere. Data assimilation (DA) can combine the observation and models via mathematical statistical analysis. Results show that the ensemble adjust Kalman filter (EAKF) is the optimal algorithm. In addition, models perform better when the DA accepts a higher proportion of observations.
Kristian Strommen, Hannah M. Christensen, Dave MacLeod, Stephan Juricke, and Tim N. Palmer
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3099–3118, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3099-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3099-2019, 2019
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Due to computational limitations, climate models cannot fully resolve the laws of physics below a certain scale – a large source of errors and uncertainty. Stochastic schemes aim to account for this by randomly sampling the possible unresolved states. We develop new stochastic schemes for the EC-Earth climate model and evaluate their impact on model performance. While several benefits are found, the impact is sometimes too strong, suggesting such schemes must be carefully calibrated before use.
Gabriela Aznar-Siguan and David N. Bresch
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3085–3097, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3085-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3085-2019, 2019
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The need for assessing the risk of weather events is ever increasing. In addition to quantification of risk today, the role of aggravating factors such as population growth and changing climate conditions matter too. We present the open-source software CLIMADA, which integrates hazard, exposure, and vulnerability to compute metrics to assess risk and to quantify socio-economic impact, and use it to estimate and contextualize the damage of hurricane Irma through the Caribbean in 2017.
Sihan Li, David E. Rupp, Linnia Hawkins, Philip W. Mote, Doug McNeall, Sarah N. Sparrow, David C. H. Wallom, Richard A. Betts, and Justin J. Wettstein
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3017–3043, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3017-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3017-2019, 2019
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Understanding the unfolding challenges of climate change relies on climate models, many of which have regional biases larger than the expected climate signal over the next half-century. This work shows the potential for improving climate model simulations through a multiphased parameter refinement approach. Regional warm biases are substantially reduced, suggesting this iterative approach is one path to improving climate models and simulations of present and future climate.
Murray D. MacKay
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3045–3054, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3045-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3045-2019, 2019
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Lakes interact with their surroundings through flux exchange at their bottom sediments and with the atmosphere at the surface, and these linkages must be represented in climate and weather prediction models in order to completely elucidate the role of lakes in the climate system. Here schemes for the inclusion of wind sheltering and sediment heat flux simple enough to be included in any 1-D lake model are presented, along with example simulations of the Canadian Small Lake Model.
Stefan Lange
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3055–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3055-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3055-2019, 2019
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Compared to their predecessors, the new Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) methods for bias adjustment and statistical downscaling allow for a more robust adjustment of extreme values and spatial variability, preserve trends more accurately across quantiles, and facilitate a clearer separation of bias adjustment and statistical downscaling.
Hideaki Kawai, Seiji Yukimoto, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Naga Oshima, Taichu Tanaka, Hiromasa Yoshimura, and Ryoji Nagasawa
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2875–2897, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2875-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2875-2019, 2019
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The representation of clouds was significantly improved in the climate model MRI-ESM2. The model is planned for use in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulations. In particular, a notorious lack of reflection of solar radiation over the Southern Ocean was drastically improved in the model. The score of the spatial pattern of radiative fluxes for MRI-ESM2 is better than for any CMIP5 model. We present modifications implemented in the various physics schemes.
Hiroaki Tatebe, Tomoo Ogura, Tomoko Nitta, Yoshiki Komuro, Koji Ogochi, Toshihiko Takemura, Kengo Sudo, Miho Sekiguchi, Manabu Abe, Fuyuki Saito, Minoru Chikira, Shingo Watanabe, Masato Mori, Nagio Hirota, Yoshio Kawatani, Takashi Mochizuki, Kei Yoshimura, Kumiko Takata, Ryouta O'ishi, Dai Yamazaki, Tatsuo Suzuki, Masao Kurogi, Takahito Kataoka, Masahiro Watanabe, and Masahide Kimoto
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2727–2765, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2727-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2727-2019, 2019
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For a deeper understanding of a wide range of climate science issues, the latest version of the Japanese climate model, called MIROC6, was developed. The climate model represents observed mean climate and climate variations well, for example tropical precipitation, the midlatitude westerlies, and the East Asian monsoon, which influence human activity all over the world. The improved climate simulations could add reliability to climate predictions under global warming.
Xuesong Ding, Tristan Salles, Nicolas Flament, and Patrice Rey
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2571–2585, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2571-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2571-2019, 2019
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This work introduced a quantitative stratigraphic framework within a source-to-sink numerical code, pyBadlands, and evaluated two stratigraphic interpretation techniques. This quantitative framework allowed us to quickly construct the strata formations and automatically produce strata interpretations. We further showed that the accommodation succession method, compared with the trajectory analysis method, provided more reliable interpretations as it is independent of time-dependent processes.
Huw W. Lewis, Juan Manuel Castillo Sanchez, Alex Arnold, Joachim Fallmann, Andrew Saulter, Jennifer Graham, Mike Bush, John Siddorn, Tamzin Palmer, Adrian Lock, John Edwards, Lucy Bricheno, Alberto Martínez-de la Torre, and James Clark
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2357–2400, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2357-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2357-2019, 2019
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In the real world the atmosphere, oceans and land surface are closely interconnected, and yet the prediction systems used for weather and ocean forecasting tend to treat them in isolation. This paper describes the third version of a regional modelling system which aims to represent the feedback processes between sky, sea and land. The main innovation introduced in this version enables waves to affect the underlying ocean. Coupled results from four different month-long simulations are analysed.
Dietmar Dommenget, Kerry Nice, Tobias Bayr, Dieter Kasang, Christian Stassen, and Michael Rezny
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2155–2179, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2155-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2155-2019, 2019
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This study describes the scientific basis for a public web page that gives access to a large set of climate model simulations. This web page is called the Monash Simple Climate Model. It provides access to more than 1300 experiments and has an interactive interface for fast analysis of the experiments and open access to the data. The study gives a short overview of the simulation experiments and discusses some of the results.
Fushan Wang, Guangheng Ni, William J. Riley, Jinyun Tang, Dejun Zhu, and Ting Sun
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2119–2138, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2119-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2119-2019, 2019
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The current lake model in the Weather Research and Forecasting system was reported to be insufficient in simulating deep lakes and reservoirs. We thus revised the lake model by improving its spatial discretization scheme, surface property parameterization, diffusivity parameterization, and convection scheme. The revised model was evaluated at a deep reservoir in southwestern China and the results were in good agreement with measurements.
Lukas Hubert Leufen and Gerd Schädler
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2033–2047, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2033-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2033-2019, 2019
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An artificial neural network was used to calculate the scaling quantities u* and T*. To train and test the network, a large set of worldwide observations was used. Extensive sensitivity studies showed that a relatively small 6–3–2 network with six input parameters and one hidden layer yields satisfying results. An implementation of this network in a stand-alone land surface model showed that the neural network gives results equivalent to and sometimes better than the standard implementation.
Chun-Hsu Su, Nathan Eizenberg, Peter Steinle, Dörte Jakob, Paul Fox-Hughes, Christopher J. White, Susan Rennie, Charmaine Franklin, Imtiaz Dharssi, and Hongyan Zhu
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2049–2068, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2049-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2049-2019, 2019
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The Bureau of Meteorology Atmospheric Regional Reanalysis for Australia (BARRA) is the first regional reanalysis for Australia, NZ, and SE Asia. It offers realistic depictions of near-surface meteorology at a scale required for emergency services, defence, and other major sectors such as energy and agriculture. It uses a consistent method of analysing the atmosphere, with a higher-resolution model over 1990 to 2018, and can provide greater understanding of past weather, including extreme events.
Sabine Brinkop and Patrick Jöckel
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1991–2008, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1991-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1991-2019, 2019
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We have extended ATTILA (Atmospheric Tracer Transport in a LAgrangian model), a Lagrangian tracer transport scheme which is online coupled to the global ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model, with a combination of newly developed and modified physical routines and new diagnostic and infrastructure submodels. The results show an improvement of the tracer transport into and within the stratosphere due to the newly implemented diabatic vertical velocity.
David Walters, Anthony J. Baran, Ian Boutle, Malcolm Brooks, Paul Earnshaw, John Edwards, Kalli Furtado, Peter Hill, Adrian Lock, James Manners, Cyril Morcrette, Jane Mulcahy, Claudio Sanchez, Chris Smith, Rachel Stratton, Warren Tennant, Lorenzo Tomassini, Kwinten Van Weverberg, Simon Vosper, Martin Willett, Jo Browse, Andrew Bushell, Kenneth Carslaw, Mohit Dalvi, Richard Essery, Nicola Gedney, Steven Hardiman, Ben Johnson, Colin Johnson, Andy Jones, Colin Jones, Graham Mann, Sean Milton, Heather Rumbold, Alistair Sellar, Masashi Ujiie, Michael Whitall, Keith Williams, and Mohamed Zerroukat
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1909–1963, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1909-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1909-2019, 2019
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Global Atmosphere (GA) configurations of the Unified Model (UM) and Global Land (GL) configurations of JULES are developed for use in any global atmospheric modelling application. We describe a recent iteration of these configurations, GA7/GL7, which includes new aerosol and snow schemes and addresses the four critical errors identified in GA6. GA7/GL7 will underpin the UK's contributions to CMIP6, and hence their documentation is important.
Marisol Monterrubio-Velasco, Quetzalcóatl Rodríguez-Pérez, Ramón Zúñiga, Doreen Scholz, Armando Aguilar-Meléndez, and Josep de la Puente
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1809–1831, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1809-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1809-2019, 2019
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Earthquakes are the result of brittle failure within the heterogeneous crust of the Earth. In this article, we present a computer code called the stochasTic Rupture Earthquake MOdeL, TREMOL v0.1, developed to investigate the rupture process of asperities on the earthquake rupture surface. According to our results, TREMOL is able to simulate the magnitudes of real earthquakes, showing that it can be a powerful tool to deliver promising new insights into earthquake rupture processes.
Dan Lu and Daniel Ricciuto
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1791–1807, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1791-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1791-2019, 2019
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This work uses machine-learning techniques to advance the predictive understanding of large-scale Earth systems.
Min Chen, Chris R. Vernon, Maoyi Huang, Katherine V. Calvin, and Ian P. Kraucunas
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1753–1764, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1753-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1753-2019, 2019
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Demeter is a community spatial downscaling model that disaggregates land use and land cover changes projected by integrated human–Earth system models. However, Demeter has not been intensively calibrated, and we still lack good knowledge about its sensitivity to key parameters and parameter uncertainties. This paper aims to solve this problem.
Manu Anna Thomas, Abhay Devasthale, Torben Koenigk, Klaus Wyser, Malcolm Roberts, Christopher Roberts, and Katja Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1679–1702, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1679-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1679-2019, 2019
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Cloud processes occur at scales ranging from few micrometres to hundreds of kilometres. Their representation in global climate models and their fidelity are thus sensitive to the choice of spatial resolution. Here, cloud radiative effects simulated by models are evaluated using a satellite dataset, with a focus on investigating the sensitivity to spatial resolution. The evaluations are carried out using two approaches: the traditional statistical comparisons and the process-oriented evaluation.
Sandro F. Veiga, Paulo Nobre, Emanuel Giarolla, Vinicius Capistrano, Manoel Baptista Jr., André L. Marquez, Silvio Nilo Figueroa, José Paulo Bonatti, Paulo Kubota, and Carlos A. Nobre
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1613–1642, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1613-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1613-2019, 2019
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This study evaluates the Brazilian Earth System Model with coupled ocean–atmosphere version 2.5 (BESM-OA2.5) and the effectiveness of reproducing the main characteristics of the atmospheric and oceanic variability in a real-life-based scenario of greenhouse gas increase (the CMIP5 historical protocol). The evaluation specifically focuses on how the model simulates the mean climate state, as well as the most important large-scale climate patterns.
Tongwen Wu, Yixiong Lu, Yongjie Fang, Xiaoge Xin, Laurent Li, Weiping Li, Weihua Jie, Jie Zhang, Yiming Liu, Li Zhang, Fang Zhang, Yanwu Zhang, Fanghua Wu, Jianglong Li, Min Chu, Zaizhi Wang, Xueli Shi, Xiangwen Liu, Min Wei, Anning Huang, Yaocun Zhang, and Xiaohong Liu
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1573–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1573-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1573-2019, 2019
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This work presents advancements of the BCC model transition from CMIP5 to CMIP6, especially in the model resolution and its physics. Compared with BCC CMIP5 models, the BCC CMIP6 model shows significant improvements in historical simulations in many aspects including tropospheric air temperature and circulation at global and regional scales in East Asia, climate variability at different timescales (QBO, MJO, and diurnal cycle of precipitation), and the long-term trend of global air temperature.
Robert Link, Abigail Snyder, Cary Lynch, Corinne Hartin, Ben Kravitz, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1477–1489, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1477-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1477-2019, 2019
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Earth system models (ESMs) produce the highest-quality future climate data available, but they are costly to run, so only a few runs from each model are publicly available. What is needed are emulators that tell us what would have happened, if we had been able to perform as many ESM runs as we might have liked. Much of the existing work on emulators has focused on deterministic projections of average values. Here we present a way to imbue emulators with the variability seen in ESM runs.
Matthew J. Gidden, Keywan Riahi, Steven J. Smith, Shinichiro Fujimori, Gunnar Luderer, Elmar Kriegler, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Maarten van den Berg, Leyang Feng, David Klein, Katherine Calvin, Jonathan C. Doelman, Stefan Frank, Oliver Fricko, Mathijs Harmsen, Tomoko Hasegawa, Petr Havlik, Jérôme Hilaire, Rachel Hoesly, Jill Horing, Alexander Popp, Elke Stehfest, and Kiyoshi Takahashi
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1443–1475, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1443-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1443-2019, 2019
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We present a suite of nine scenarios of future emissions trajectories of anthropogenic sources for use in CMIP6. Integrated assessment model results are provided for each scenario with consistent transitions from the historical data to future trajectories. We find that the set of scenarios enables the exploration of a variety of warming pathways. A wide range of scenario data products are provided for the CMIP6 scientific community including global, regional, and gridded emissions datasets.
Luca Bertagna, Michael Deakin, Oksana Guba, Daniel Sunderland, Andrew M. Bradley, Irina K. Tezaur, Mark A. Taylor, and Andrew G. Salinger
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1423–1441, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1423-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1423-2019, 2019
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We use Kokkos, a C++ library for on-node parallelism, to achieve a performance-portable implementation of HOMME, the atmosphere component of the Earth Energy Exascale System Model. The increasing diversity of high-performance computing (HPC) architectures and the demand for higher resolutions create new challenges when writing efficient code. With Kokkos, we obtain a single code base that performs well on current HPC platforms and enables portable performance to future HPC architectures.
David J. Wilton, Marcus P. S. Badger, Euripides P. Kantzas, Richard D. Pancost, Paul J. Valdes, and David J. Beerling
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1351–1364, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1351-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1351-2019, 2019
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Methane is an important greenhouse gas naturally produced in wetlands (areas of land inundated with water). Models of the Earth's past climate need estimates of the amounts of methane wetlands produce; and in order to calculate those we need to model wetlands. In this work we develop a method for modelling the fraction of an area of the Earth that is wetland, repeat this over all the Earth's land surface and apply this to a study of the Earth as it was around 50 million years ago.
Abigail Snyder, Katherine V. Calvin, Meridel Phillips, and Alex C. Ruane
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1319–1350, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1319-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1319-2019, 2019
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Future changes in Earth system state will impact agricultural yields and therefore the global economy. Global gridded crop models estimate the influence of these Earth system changes on future crop yields, but are often too computationally intensive to dynamically couple into global multi-sector economic models, such as GCAM and other similar-in-scale models. This work describes a new crop yield change emulator, Persephone, that can capture yield changes in a computationally efficient way.
Allison C. Michaelis, Gary M. Lackmann, and Walter A. Robinson
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-34, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-34, 2019
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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We present a novel set of atmospheric simulations designed to address changes in high-impact weather events. We simulate ten years under current and projected late 21st-century climate conditions. Our model reasonably replicates present-day climate features, reproduces features of climate change that are expected from global climate models, and captures smaller scale, high-impact weather events. We anticipate these simulations will have great value in understanding changes in extreme weather.
Adrien Gaudard, Love Råman Vinnå, Fabian Bärenbold, Martin Schmid, and Damien Bouffard
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-336, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-336, 2019
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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We have developed an openly accessible web-based platform for visualization and promotion of easy access to one dimensional hydrodynamic lake model output data updated in near real time ( https://simstrat.eawag.ch/). This platform was developed for 54 lakes in Switzerland with potential for
adaptation to other regional areas or even at global worldwide scale using appropriate forcing input data.
Fraser Dennison, James Keeble, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, N. Luke Abraham, and Xin Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1227–1239, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1227-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1227-2019, 2019
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Two developments are made to the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols (UKCA) model to improve simulation of stratospheric ozone. The first is the addition of a solar cycle. The influence on ozone from the solar cycle is found to be 1–2 %, which is consistent with other studies. The second is to the heterogeneous chemistry, the most significant change being the addition of reactions involving bromine species. This was shown to reduce ozone biases relative to observations in most regions.
Mathias Louboutin, Michael Lange, Fabio Luporini, Navjot Kukreja, Philipp A. Witte, Felix J. Herrmann, Paulius Velesko, and Gerard J. Gorman
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1165–1187, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1165-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1165-2019, 2019
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This paper presents Devito, a Python-based software. The aim of this software is to provide a high-level simple interface to users for the description and discretization of the mathematical definition of the physics. This research initially started as an attempt to improve research time, portability, and performance in exploration geophysics. We present the latest version of the software that is already making an impact in academics and industry.
Nikolay V. Koldunov, Vadym Aizinger, Natalja Rakowsky, Patrick Scholz, Dmitry Sidorenko, Sergey Danilov, and Thomas Jung
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-334, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-334, 2019
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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We measure how computational performance of global FESOM2 ocean model (formulated on unstructured mesh) changes with the increase of the number of computational cores. We find that for many components of the model the performance increase linearly, but identify two bottlenecks - sea ice and ssh submodules. We show that FESOM2 is on par with the state of the art ocean models in terms of throughput, that reach 16 simulated years per day on eddy resolving configuration (1/10 degree).
Doug M. Smith, James A. Screen, Clara Deser, Judah Cohen, John C. Fyfe, Javier García-Serrano, Thomas Jung, Vladimir Kattsov, Daniela Matei, Rym Msadek, Yannick Peings, Michael Sigmond, Jinro Ukita, Jin-Ho Yoon, and Xiangdong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1139–1164, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1139-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1139-2019, 2019
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The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) is an endorsed contribution to the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). It will investigate the causes and global consequences of polar amplification through coordinated multi-model numerical experiments. This paper documents the experimental protocol.
Stephanie J. Johnson, Timothy N. Stockdale, Laura Ferranti, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Franco Molteni, Linus Magnusson, Steffen Tietsche, Damien Decremer, Antje Weisheimer, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Sarah P. E. Keeley, Kristian Mogensen, Hao Zuo, and Beatriz M. Monge-Sanz
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1087–1117, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1087-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1087-2019, 2019
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In this article, we describe the new ECMWF seasonal forecast system, SEAS5, which replaced its predecessor in November 2017. We describe the forecast methodology used in SEAS5 and compare results from SEAS5 to results from the previous seasonal forecast system, highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of SEAS5. SEAS5 data are publicly available through the Copernicus Climate Change Service's multi-system seasonal forecast.
Lluís Fita, Jan Polcher, Theodore M. Giannaros, Torge Lorenz, Josipa Milovac, Giannis Sofiadis, Eleni Katragkou, and Sophie Bastin
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1029–1066, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1029-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1029-2019, 2019
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Regional climate experiments coordinated throughout CORDEX aim to study and provide high-quality climate data over a given region. The data are used in climate change mitigation and adaptation policy studies and by stakeholders. CORDEX requires a list of variables, most of which are not provided by atmospheric models. Aiming to help the community and to maximize the use of CORDEX exercises, we create a new module for WRF models to directly produce them by adding
genericand
additionalones.
Stephanie Fiedler, Bjorn Stevens, Matthew Gidden, Steven J. Smith, Keywan Riahi, and Detlef van Vuuren
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 989–1007, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-989-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-989-2019, 2019
Ryan M. Bright and Thomas L. O'Halloran
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-15, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-15, 2019
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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To determine the effects of land cover change on climate, researchers must be able to quantify the net change in energy (radiation) at the top of the atmosphere caused by changes in surface reflectance (albedo). Historically, this was done with sophisticated models that require specialized input datasets only available to specialists. Here we combine existing datasets and a new parameterization to create a new model that is accurate and more accessible.
Salomon Eliasson, Karl Göran Karlsson, Erik van Meijgaard, Jan Fokke Meirink, Martin Stengel, and Ulrika Willén
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 829–847, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-829-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-829-2019, 2019
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To enable fair comparisons of clouds between climate models and the
ESA Cloud_cci climate data record (CDR), we present a tool called the
Cloud_cci simulator. The tool takes into account the geometry and
cloud detection capabilities of the Cloud_cci CDR to allow fair
comparisons. We demonstrate the simulator on two climate models. We
find the impact of time sampling has a large effect on simulated cloud
water amount and that the simulator reduces the cloud cover by about
10 % globally.
Valerio Lembo, Frank Lunkeit, and Valerio Lucarini
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-37, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-37, 2019
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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The Thermodynamic Diagnostic Tool (TheDiaTo v1.0) is a collection of diagnostics for the study of thermodynamics of the climate system in climate models. This is fundamental, in order to understand where the imbalances affecting climate projections come from, and also allow for easy comparison of different scenarios and atmospheric regimes. The tool is currently being developed for the assessment of models that are part of the next phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).
Ashley M. Broadbent, Andrew M. Coutts, Kerry A. Nice, Matthias Demuzere, E. Scott Krayenhoff, Nigel J. Tapper, and Hendrik Wouters
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 785–803, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-785-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-785-2019, 2019
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We present a simple model for assessing the cooling impacts of vegetation and water features (green and blue infrastructure) in urban environments. This model is designed to be computationally efficient so that those without technical knowledge or access to high-performance computers can use it. TARGET can be used to model average street-level air temperature at canyon to block scales (e.g. 100 m resolution). The model is carefully designed to provide reliable and accurate cooling estimates.
Cited articles
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Aðalgeirsdóttir, G., Aschwanden, A., Khroulev, C., Boberg, F., Mottram, R., Lucas-Picher, P., and Christensen, J. H.: Role of model initialization for projections of 21st-century Greenland ice sheet mass loss, J. Glaciol., 60, 782-794, 2014.
Agosta, C., Fettweis, X., and Datta, R.: Evaluation of the CMIP5 models in the aim of regional modelling of the Antarctic surface mass balance, The Cryosphere, 9, 2311–2321, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2311-2015, 2015.
Ahlstrøm, A. P., Gravesen, P., Andersen, S. B., van As, D., Citterio, M., Fausto, R. S., Nielsen, S., Jepsen, H. F., Kristensen, S. S., Christensen, E. L., Stenseng, L., Forsberg, R., Hanson, S., Petersen, D., and Team, P. P.: A new programme for monitoring the mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet, Copenhagen, Denmark, available at: http://www.geus.dk/DK/publications/geol-survey-dk-gl-bull/15/Documents/nr15_p61-64.pdf (last access: 15 August 2016), 2008.
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Asay-Davis, X. S., Cornford, S. L., Durand, G., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Gladstone, R. M., Gudmundsson, G. H., Hattermann, T., Holland, D. M., Holland, D., Holland, P. R., Martin, D. F., Mathiot, P., Pattyn, F., and Seroussi, H.: Experimental design for three interrelated marine ice sheet and ocean model intercomparison projects: MISMIP v. 3 (MISMIP +), ISOMIP v. 2 (ISOMIP +) and MISOMIP v. 1 (MISOMIP1), Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2471–2497, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2471-2016, 2016.
Aschwanden, A., Aðalgeirsdóttir, G., and Khroulev, C.: Hindcasting to measure ice sheet model sensitivity to initial states, The Cryosphere, 7, 1083–1093, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1083-2013, 2013.
Aschwanden, A., Fahnestock, M. A., and Truffer, M.: Complex Greenland outlet glacier flow captured, Nat. Commun., 7, 10524, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms10524, 2016.
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Bamber, J. L., Griggs, J. A., Hurkmans, R. T. W. L., Dowdeswell, J. A., Gogineni, S. P., Howat, I., Mouginot, J., Paden, J., Palmer, S., Rignot, E., and Steinhage, D.: A new bed elevation dataset for Greenland, The Cryosphere, 7, 499–510, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-499-2013, 2013.
Banwell, A. F., MacAyeal, D. R., and Sergienko, O. V.: Breakup of the Larsen B Ice Shelf Triggered by Chain Reaction Drainage of Supraglacial Lakes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 5872–5876, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL057694, 2013.
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Born, A. and Nisancioglu, K. H.: Melting of Northern Greenland during the last interglaciation, The Cryosphere, 6, 1239–1250, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1239-2012, 2012.
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This paper describes an experimental protocol designed to quantify and understand the global sea level that arises due to past, present, and future changes in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, along with investigating ice sheet–climate feedbacks. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) protocol includes targeted experiments, and a set of output diagnostic related to ice sheets, that are part of the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6).
This paper describes an experimental protocol designed to quantify and understand the global sea...
Geoscientific Model Development
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